208
FXUS63 KLMK 271925
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
325 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Pleasant and dry weather will continue through at least Tuesday
  with highs in the mid to upper 70s/low 80s and mostly clear skies.

* Temperatures will begin to warm back into the mid to upper 80s mid
  week ahead of rain chances returning late Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Comfortable conditions across the Ohio Valley continue as surface
high pressure and northeasterly flow prevails across the region.
With mostly clear skies expected tonight, decent radiational cooling
will allow temperatures to drop to the upper 40s/low 50s. Isolated
patchy river valley fog was observed this morning in the eastern
portions of our area, and with this pattern holding through the
early portions of the upcoming workweek, some isolated patchy fog
cannot be ruled out Monday morning. For Monday and Tuesday,
conditions will be fairly similar to today, with temperatures subtly
increasing each day. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s on
Monday, with a return to the 80s on Tuesday. Overnight temperatures
will also be similar, with lows continuing to be in the upper
40s/low 50s. By late Tuesday into Tuesday night, the area of surface
high pressure will shift off to the east, allowing the return of
southerly flow to the region. Overnight temperatures will be closer
to normal for this time of year, with lows in the mid to upper 50s
forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Looking broadly at the synoptic scale, the remnants of Hurricane
Polo interacts with an upper-level low over the SW CONUS late
Tuesday into Wednesday, with the entire system moving northeastward
towards the Ohio Valley. Over our area, the western edge of the
ridge continues to persist, keeping us dry on Wednesday. With the
return of southerly flow, the end of September will be very warm with
highs in the mid to upper 80s and a few places reaching 90.

For Thursday, a shortwave trough over the Great Lakes region will
interact with the surface ridge, with moisture from the previously
mentioned upper-level low moving northeastward. Conditions will be
dry for most of the day on Thursday before a cold front associated
with the shortwave trough pushes southward towards the region. Rain
chances will return, lasting through at least late Friday. From the
latest LREF, rainfall totals range from 1-1.5" across the area, with
higher amounts off to our west. The remainder of the forecast period
becomes uncertain as there is high variability in deterministic and
ensemble guidance. The uncertainty lies in the progression of the
surface cold front and associated surface high pressure behind.
Some guidance has the front pushing well to our south, keeping the
area mostly dry next weekend, while other model outputs keep the
front nearby with persisting rain chances through the weekend. With
the high uncertainty, chance (< 50%) POPs are in the forecast
package during this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 101 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

VFR conditions and relatively light NNE winds are expected to
prevail through the TAF period. A brief 10-15 kt gust is possible
this afternoon over SDF and LEX, though confidence is too low to
include in the TAF. Patchy fog could also develop tonight, but is
currently not expected to develop over the terminals.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...BEN