242
FXUS63 KLMK 152317
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
617 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Warm and breezy today, with highs in the 70s.

* Brief light rain showers still possible tonight along a cold
  front, especially east of I-65.

* Cool and dry Sunday and Monday.

* Unsettled weather next week resulting in widespread light to
  moderate rainfall Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 347 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Through the rest of the afternoon and early evening the main story
will remain the well above normal temperatures and gusty winds. As
of the time writing this discussion, per the KYMesonet, temperatures
were in the low/mid 70s across central KY with upper 70s further
west where the`ve experienced more sunshine. SDF was at 75 at almost
3pm EST with the record high for today at 77 set back in 1971. Wind
gusts have peaked as expected between 25-35 mph thanks to afternoon
mixing and tight sfc pressure gradient over the area. The strong SW
winds also have had a hand in the WAA ahead of the approaching cold
front.

Sfc cold front was oriented NE to SW from Alpena, MI to Chicago, IL
to Kansas City, MO. Other than gusty winds and warmer temperatures
there was little moisture pooling ahead of the boundary with limited
shower activity associated with it. The hi-res models continue to
advertise a narrow band of showers developing and working out of
southern IN, into northern KY and increasing as it gets to the
Bluegrass and eastern KY. As was previously mentioned, CAPE values
look to be near or less than 200 J/kg with an increasing LLJ into
eastern KY this evening. But thunder chances appear to be relatively
low. While not ruling out a rumble of thunder, the overall impacts
from any thunderstorms look low.

Front is expected to move through fairly quickly and if we do see
any showers, best chance being over the Bluegrass, it would likely
only last a couple of hours. Winds will start to veer more out of
the NW as the front moves eastward with some gusts still near 20
mph. Given the overall lack of moisture skies will start to clear
and temperatures will turn colder as we go into tomorrow.

Temperatures will start off in the low 50s/upper 40s then only warm
to around the mid/upper 50s to near 60 further south in the
afternoon. It will feel cooler and winds will remain out of the NW
around 10-15mph with gust around 20 later in the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 347 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

The week starts off with dry and cooler, with temperatures closer to
seasonable normals in the mid 50s to low 60s as high pressure builds
in over the Ohio Valley behind the departing cold front. A weak
upper disturbance coming out of the central US Monday night will
develop a weak sfc low Over KS/NE and push it into the Ohio Valley
during the day on Tuesday. A warm front associated with this system
will work into the Ohio Valley and then stall over the region through
the middle of the week. Increased SW flow will result in moisture
advection and isentropic lift over the stalled boundary resulting in
increasing shower and even thunderstorm chances. Given the boundary
placement and moisture advection along with warmer air, there will be
an increase in instability. Have seen a a slight increase in the
ECMWF EFO for CAPE but with models still advertising around 500 J/kg
of CAPE, still feel confident in more elevated instability.


The overall pattern become more active and unsettled from Wednesday
through the end of the week. While the deterministic models do agree
on rain chances through the end of the week, confidence remains low
on the finer temporal and spacial details. With a quasi-stationary
boundary over the region through the end of the week, a few mid-
level disturbances moving across the the region during this time
period and a the development of a stronger system coming out of the
Desert SW into the central CONUS by the end of the week, the overall
forecast trend in my opinion looks good. The things to continue to
monitor as we go over the next several days will be just how much
rain could fall, with current forecast showing 2 to 3 inches over
central KY from Tuesday into Friday and how will the late week
system develop and where will it move.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 616 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

The cold front is just now entering southern Indiana and Broken
clouds between 3-4kft are increasing over the region. As this front
moves through, there is a chances for light to moderate showers.
Highest probabilities will be over the Bluegrass. As the front moves
through, precip and clouds will quickly dissipate and winds will
veer to the northwest. Winds will remain steady overnight and into
the morning hours around 7-11kts. In the afternoon on Sunday, gusty
winds around 18-22kts are expected.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...SRW