030
FXUS63 KLMK 061755
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1255 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Damp cloudy weekend with a small chance for a flurry or sprinkle.

* As northwest flow brings multiple systems to the area, additional
  precipitation chances arrive on Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 424 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

This morning, a shortwave will push southeast through the Lower Ohio
Valley, keeping low stratus overhead for most of the day. This layer
could spit a sprinkle or two, but it`s going to remain mostly dry.
Light warm air advection will help lift temperatures into the upper
30s to low 40s, helping to melt any remaining snow.

Tonight, ahead of an approaching cold front, an inverted surface
trough extending from a low over Texas will slide southeast towards
southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Low level clouds are expected
to give way to mid-level clouds. Isolated sprinkles and flurries
become possible after midnight towards Sunday morning, but model
soundings show a saturated DGZ over dry air. This will likely limit
what reaches the ground. Light WAA limit falling temperatures to the
upper 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 424 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Sunday, as a cold front/shortwave begins to push southeast
through the CWA, model soundings show a saturated column underneath
a dry DGZ. Expect a mostly cloudy day with possible drizzle. Rain
chances currently look pretty limited. The better chance for
precipitation arrives Sunday night as a shortwave riding on the
upper trough deepens saturation. Still, any precipitation would be
extremely light.

The cold front would bring a return to northerly winds, dropping
highs on Sunday in the low 40s to low 50s to the upper teens
(southern Indiana) to low 30s (southern Kentucky) Sunday night.

On Monday, high pressure behind the front will bring clearer skies
with CAA to the CWA, but as the high passes, WAA returns for
Tuesday. This will lift temperatures in the 30s to near 40 on Monday
about 10 degrees warmer for Tuesday.

In the mid to late week time period, northwest upper flow will bring
quick moving systems to the region. A low pressure system on
Wednesday is expected to pass over the Great Lakes. The system`s
trailing cold front is likely to bring light precipitation on
Wednesday before a different low pressure system arrives Thursday.
Impacts are expected to be limited with these systems, but with
temperatures being on either side of freezing, multiple
precipitation types will likely fall.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

A stubborn band of low stratus is creating some challenges covering
most of our terminal sites will likely continue through the
afternoon and into the evening. The challenging locations could be
right along the edge like HNB, RGA and even LEX where we could see
some VFR flight categories for a period of time. The main challenge
is timing. Models are not handling these low stratus heights very
well so when they lift or even break will be challenging.

Winds will become lighter and more south later this evening and then
start to veer more out of the SW during the morning to even more NW
as a system works through. Likely going to see extended periods of
MVFR to IFR for BWG, SDF and eventually HNB when this next system
approaches.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...BTN