525
FXUS63 KLMK 281050
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
650 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Warm days, cool nights, and dry weather continues through Saturday.

* The next significant chance for widespread rainfall is not
  expected until this weekend, with the highest confidence in rain
  (60-80%) occurring late Saturday night and Sunday.

* A more unsettled weather pattern is expected next week, with
  showers and storms possible during the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

This Morning through Friday Night...

High clouds continue to stream across the region this morning in
association with a subtle H5 shortwave moving across Indiana. As
this wave ejects to the NE, drier air and clearing skies will advect
in from the mid-Miss. Valley later today, with mostly sunny skies
expected for all by early afternoon. While patchy morning fog has
been a common occurrence recently, would expect the more well-mixed
boundary layer to keep fog development at a minimum this morning,
but some very isolated fog banks can`t be ruled out in the deepest
river valleys.

Otherwise, today should be another unseasonably warm day with highs
reaching the mid-to-upper 70s. Tonight, clear skies should allow for
the sheltered river valleys to decouple, with temperatures dropping
quickly after sunset. While some of the HREF members show patchy fog
developing Thursday morning, increasing winds atop the boundary
layer may keep fog to a the deepest valleys once again, and the REFS
is less bullish on fog development. For now, we`ll leave fog out of
tonight`s forecast, with lows expected to range from near 40 in the
coldest valleys to near 50 in urban/well-mixed locations.

Thursday and Friday will see fairly similar temperatures with highs
in the mid-to-upper 70s to near 80 and lows mainly in the 40s. A
weak cold front will try to move through the area Thursday night;
however, building ridging aloft should cause the system to stall out
and dissipate early Friday. Dry weather will continue likewise,
though clouds should steadily increase through the day on Friday.
Increasing clouds and mid-/upper-level moisture should lead to
milder low temperatures Friday night.

Saturday through Sunday Night...

As we head into the weekend, a shortwave trough associated with the
remnants of TC Vance are expected to move across the southern Plains
and eject toward the Ohio Valley. Moisture will increase from the SW
ahead of this disturbance, with a plume of 1.25"+ PW values moving
into the area Saturday night. Confidence has been increasing that
the daytime hours on Saturday will remain dry, with now 80-90% of
ensemble members keeping the area rain free through 00Z Sunday.

There is still quite a bit of uncertainty in the impacts from the
weekend system, as the 00Z (10/28) ECMWF run now keeps the entire
area dry through the weekend. With this being said, 85-95% of
ensemble members do have measurable precipitation at some point
Saturday night through Sunday, so there`s still better odds than not
that we`ll see some rain this weekend. However, we`ll have to see if
this drier outlier becomes a trend over the next several runs. High
temperatures should cool a bit over the weekend thanks to the extra
clouds and moisture, particularly on Sunday, though we should still
be above normal for the end of October. Low temperatures will be
mild in the 50s, well above normal for this time of year.

Early-to-Mid Next Week...

A more active weather pattern is expected next week, with a lot of
lingering uncertainty in the details at this time. The source of
much of the uncertainty is a fairly complex synoptic pattern across
North America. Sunday into Monday, troughing over the Pacific NW
will get nudged to the east by an approaching Gulf of Alaska
cyclone. As this trough moves east of the Rockies, the subtropical
and polar stream waves are expected to come out of phase, resulting
in the development of a cutoff low over the center of the CONUS
early-to-mid next week. The low should meander across the Plains
until another polar stream wave picks it up later in the week, at
which point it is expected to move into the eastern US.

In the vicinity and ahead of this disturbance, increasing SW flow
should bring a warm, moist air mass off of the Gulf, setting up the
potential for several rounds of showers and storms. Timing and
positioning of where this sets up is still quite variable between
medium range guidance members, so we`ll have to see some convergence
in model solutions before we can have too much confidence. General
signals point to continued mild temperatures until the upper low/sfc
cold front passes, with cooling temperatures later next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Other than patchy fog at HNB this morning, expect VFR conditions for
the upcoming TAF period. Later today, high clouds will clear to the
east, leaving clear or mostly clear skies for this evening and
tonight. Winds should be around 5-8 knots out of the S/SW from late
morning through the afternoon hours, with light S/SE winds expected
tonight into Thursday morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CSG
AVIATION...CSG