211
FXUS63 KLMK 140550
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1250 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Mostly dry and mild weather likely into Saturday.

* Brief light rain or sprinkles possible Friday, though most stay
  dry. There is a higher chance for rain Saturday night.

* Unsettled weather pattern returns early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 433 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

Currently, surface high pressure is centered over the region as
upper ridging continues to slide eastward. This is keeping skies
mostly clear and allowing temperatures to climb into the upper 50s
to 60s. Dew points are quite low ranging from the low 20s to mid
30s, resulting in very dry conditions.

Tonight, as the surface high begins to move to the east, winds back
from the west to the south under mostly clear skies. Strong
radiative cooling will lead to lows mostly between the mid to upper
30s.

Tomorrow, as the upper ridge pushes the surface high off to the
southeast, a strengthening pressure gradient over the Lower Ohio
Valley will drive warm air advection up and into the Mississippi and
Ohio Valleys, pushing a warm front northeast over the region as it
meets a southeast moving shortwave. This is expected to result in
extra cloud cover. A light sprinkle or two isn`t out of the
question, mainly across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky,
but model soundings show a very thin layer of moisture near the 850
mb level. Subsidence from upper high pressure and dry air below the
layer should really limit potential. Most areas are expected to
remain dry. By the end of the day, dew points are expected to make
it back to the mid 40s to mid 50s as temperatures reach into the mid
60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 433 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

Saturday, a low pressure system centered in Canada will get pushed
southeast towards the Great Lakes while dragging a cold front
southeast over the Midwest as it heads towards southern Indiana and
central Kentucky. A strong pressure gradient will drive WAA and
moisture into the area. High temperatures will likely reach into the
70s. Dew points reach the mid 50s to low 60s as rain chances
increase into Saturday night before the cold front passes through
the CWA, bringing a return to CAA. Any rainfall would be light with
only a few hundreths possible in the stable environment.

Sunday, skies clear as upper ridging and surface high pressure
return. Cooling northwest winds limit highs to the mid 50s to mid
60s over the southeastern parts of the CWA. As the center of the
surface high passes early Monday, winds begin to veer, losing CAA,
but mostly clear skies continue with similar temperatures.

Monday night, a west to east oriented front is expected to develop
near the CWA between surface high pressure off the Atlantic coast
and one over the Northern Plains/Midwest. This will funnel rain
showers west to east over the CWA ahead of a surface low. Model
soundings shower a stable inversion with high LCLs. The bulk of the
rain is expected to taper off early Tuesday before a mostly dry day
expected on Wednesday, but this will depend on where the boundary
sits.

The system with the most interest and potential of severe weather
looks to arrive early Thursday as a large upper trough digs south
through the Four Corners and develops into a stacked low pressure
system that ejects to the northeast, dragging a traditional cold
front east towards the CWA. The details aren`t in focus, but this
type of system could bring severe weather to the area. With that
said, current data looks uneventful with stable model profiles.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1250 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions expected. Winds are light, and skies are mostly clear
to begin this forecast period. Lower level warm, moist air advection
from the west will bring SCT-BKN clouds around 6 kft to the region
mainly after 12Z Fri. We are starting to see some of these clouds
develop on satellite imagery over IL. Skies will return to mostly
clear by 21-00Z this evening.

Winds will veer southerly and start to increase later this morning
in response to a tightening pressure gradient. Winds will continue
to veer SW by this afternoon while increasing to around 10 kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...EBW