044
FXUS63 KLMK 202347
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
747 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

..Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* There is a low (10-20%) chance for a pop up storm this afternoon,
  lingering through tomorrow across far southern Kentucky. The risk
  of severe weather is low.

* Another low (20%) chance will exist for storms on Saturday. It is
  unclear whether a severe weather risk can materialize.

* Milder conditions are forecast Sunday into Monday. There is a 40-
  70% chance (highest north) that temperatures fall into the 50s
  Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

***** LOW CHANCE OF STRAY SHOWER/STORM THROUGH FRIDAY *****

At 145pm Thursday afternoon, a cold front, recognizable via a wind
shift and gradually decreasing dewpoints, was located near the I-64
corridor. RAP mesoanalysis suggests 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 20-
25kt effective bulk shear ahead of this front, which could
certainly support a couple thunderstorms, however forcing along
this front may prove too weak to spark much, if anything, in the way
of convection. HREF 40km neighborhood probabilities for more than
40dBZ reflectivity, like NBM precipitation chances, generally peak
around 10-20% across the area through this evening, lingering where
the front stalls across extreme southern Kentucky overnight.
Elsewhere, patchy fog may develop as temperatures drop into the mid
to upper 60s - a few degrees below current dewpoints. HREF/NBM
probabilities for visibilities less than 1 mile generally run 20-30%
overnight into Friday morning - highest during the 4-8am EDT
timeframe.

Tomorrow, a weak disturbance riding northeastward along the
Appalachians could trigger a storm or two along the far southeastern
border of our county warning area (CWA), but most activity should be
confined to the Cumberland Plateau. Any early morning fog should
lift into low stratus by mid morning, and then gradually break up
through mid afternoon when breaks of sunshine should warm the area
once again into the low-mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

***** LOW SEVERE STORM RISK SATURDAY, COOLER SUNDAY-MONDAY *****

A stronger trough is forecast to dive south out of Manitoba Friday
night, reaching the Lower Great Lakes by Saturday evening and
bringing a cold front through the local area by Sunday morning. It`s
unclear whether we will see sufficient moisture return ahead of this
front to have a severe thunderstorm risk, particularly with the
minimum in shear along the trough axis during the afternoon.
However, some machine learning guidance is advertising 15+% severe
probabilities over portions of the local area. At this time, SPC`s
day 3 outlook clips areas east of I-75 in northeast Kentucky with a
level 1 of 5 (marginal) risk, which is also the area ML guidance is
hitting the hardest. Still, a couple RRFS iterations have hit areas
west of I-65 (where shear is slightly higher under northwest flow)
with a separate area of thunderstorms; we`ll keep an eye on this
signal in the other CAMs once they begin to capture the event.

Behind the front, conditions should turn seasonably dry and slightly
cooler with afternoon highs in the low 80s both Sunday and Monday,
and overnight lows possibly (40-70% chance, according to NBM)
dipping into the 50s in spots both Sunday and Monday nights.
Eventually, however, ridging should expand back into the region from
the west, bringing an attendant increase in warmth/humidity and
storm chances (20-40%) along its periphery by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 746 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

BKN to scattered cu will eventually dissipate overnight with
gradually clearing skies initially. VFR conditions will continue
through the overnight with light NE winds to calm conditions at
least through sunrise. Lingering moisture at the surface will likely
cause some terminals to fog in the early morning with TEMPOs
continued for HNB-BWG-RGA. Any fog formation will quickly mix away
Friday morning. Light ENE winds with VFR ceilings will dominate
shifting to NNE winds by Friday afternoon. A stray shower may occur
near RGA-LEX in the afternoon as well, though confidence was still
too low to include in the TAF. Other than morning fog reducing
visibilities, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period on
Friday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...BKF