452
FXUS63 KLMK 242314
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
714 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry weather continues through next Friday. Expect chilly nights
  and warm afternoons. Patchy fog will be possible each morning,
  mainly in river valleys.

* The next significant chance for widespread rainfall is not
  expected until the first few days of November (11/1-2).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

This Weekend...

High pressure centered over New England and strong upper ridging
will keep dry weather in place through the weekend. Expect mostly
clear/sunny skies outside of some occasional upper sky cover. High
temperatures will remain above normal in the low and mid 70s.
Meanwhile, chilly lows still anticipated each morning in the low and
mid 40s for most. Expect some river valley fog each morning as well,
as has been the case all week.

This Week Into Next Weekend...

Seasonably strong upper ridging and surface high pressure hold over
the area through this week. This will keep dry conditions in place
with temperatures continuing to be above normal. In fact with
normals falling into the low and mid 60s by late this week, actual
temperatures in the mid and upper 70s late week could be considered
well above normal for this time of year. Overnight lows will
continue to be chilly given good radiational cooling with values
mostly in the 40s to low 50s.

Despite the quiet weather, a couple of concerns will be noted given
the prolonged dry stretch. 1.) Worsening drought conditions. No real
surprise here as precip deficits continue to grow. 2.) Fire weather
as we head into late week. Haven`t had a whole lot of issues yet due
to good RH recovery at night and overall pretty light winds. However
steady SSW winds will take hold from Wednesday onward as high
pressure moves from eastern Canada through New England and allows
for a little bit tighter pressure gradient over our region. This may
create some good burning opportunities, or in area that have seen
small fuels get too dry, could contribute to some sporadic wildfire
concerns.

The first part of the weekend does look dry, however a much more
active pattern could arrive for the late weekend into early next
week time frame. Not a real consistent signal to get many details
yet, but the general idea is that upper ridging will give way to
some potentially strong troughing across the western and central
CONUS. Potential for a stronger storm system into early next week
does appear possible, although a lot of details and time to work
through first.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 714 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

For the evening and overnight period, VFR conditions are expected as
high pressure at the surface and aloft remain in control of our
weather.  Only some high cirrus clouds and river valley fog are
expected overnight.  Winds will pick up out of the S/SSE by mid-late
Sunday morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJS
AVIATION.....MJ