831
FXUS63 KLMK 091733
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1233 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Colder air will filter into the region this evening with scattered
  rain showers changing over to snow showers.  More widespread snow
  showers and possible snow squalls expected on Monday with minor
  accumulations possible in the Bluegrass region of Central Kentucky.

* Very cold weather is expected Monday and Tuesday mornings with
  lows in the upper teens to lower 20s and wind chill values in the
  teens.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1100 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Temperatures started out near 50 degrees early this morning before
the overnight showers and storms, but now that the cold front is
well off to our east, we are in a dominant CAA regime with NW gusty
winds. Temps have fallen already into to the low 40s, and we expect
to see these temps continue to fall throughout the rest of today.
Winds remain gusty today, making outdoor conditions feel rather
unpleasant. Regional radar shows some light showers moving across
central IL and southwest IN, and these showers will eventually make
their way into our forecast area this afternoon. While we may start
out as light rain, do expect us to switch over to light snow/flurries
later this afternoon. Overall forecast remains in good shape, with
just some tweaks to the PoPs to incorporate some of the latest hi-
res guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 329 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Area radars are active this morning with a band of convection now
crossing the I-65 corridor.  Convection is largely being driven by
an upper level trough axis with significant height falls pushing
into the region.  Surface based instability is extremely limited, but
steepening lapse rates aloft as colder air infiltrates the region is
supporting this elevated convection.  We expect this line to
continue eastward with the strongest activity remaining generally
along and south of the Parkways.  Brief heavy rainfall and wind
gusts of 25-30 mph will be possible as this activity pushes through.
This convection is expected to be east of the forecast area by dawn.

Actual surface cold front is now just pushing into far western
Kentucky and southwest Indiana this morning.  This front will
continue eastward across the region this morning.  Behind the front,
plentiful low cloud cover and breezy northwest winds will be seen
through the day.  Not expecting much of a diurnal temperature rise
given the strong cold advection.  Daytime highs will be this morning
with temperatures falling into the 30s through the afternoon.  Given
the colder air aloft coming into the region, lapse rates will be
quite steep this afternoon which will likely produce at least light
rain showers and areas of drizzle.  As the colder air deepens across
the area from west to east, this light rain and drizzle will change
over to light snow and flurries by late afternoon.

For tonight, surface cold front will continue to surge eastward into
the Mid-Atlantic states while a deep cyclonic flow encompasses the
Ohio Valley.  Gusty northwest winds will continue into the evening
and overnight period.  The models show a slug of moisture coming off
the Great Lakes this evening and into the early overnight which will
produce scattered snow showers and snow flurries.  Latest model
trends show a bit less in the QPF department overnight, likely due
to a loss of upper level forcing in the overnight period.  Still
could see a very minor dusting of accumulation mainly on grassy
surfaces.  This is in line with the latest probabilistic forecasts
showing 40-50% chance of at least a tenth of an inch of snow across
the eastern half of the forecast area tonight. The main weather
hazard overnight will be the cold wind chills.  We expect
temperatures to drop into the lower-middle 20s by morning. Combining
the gusty winds with these air temperatures will lead to wind chill
readings of 13-18 degrees by sunrise Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 329 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Monday and Monday Night...

On Monday, a well advertised upper level low will drop into the Ohio
Valley from the northwest.  Lapse rates through the day will steepen
markedly as the core of the coldest air aloft overspreads the
region.  Plentiful moisture will be found in the lower levels and
widespread snow showers are expected through much of the day.

Have been closely examining the model soundings from many of the
CAMs and short term models as these models are now in the time range
of Monday.  Many of the models show a decent moisture plume coming
off the lakes combined with an area of enhanced lift rotating
through the region from mid-late morning and into the afternoon
hours.  Model soundings show very steep lapse rates with the colder
air aloft and many models have about 50-100 J/kg of surface based
CAPE in the profile.  Snow squall parameters are in the 2-4 range,
especially in areas east of the I-65 corridor in the afternoon
hours.  Given the environment, it appears that convective snow
squalls will be possible over our eastern areas.

Impacts on Monday are still a bit uncertain especially in regards to
accumulations.  Soil temperatures are still very warm across the
region and air temperatures during the daytime hours are forecast to
remain just above freezing.  In ordinary snow showers and flurries,
some very minor accumulations on elevated and grassy surfaces will
be possible.  The best chances of accumulations will be in the
heavier snow showers and snow squalls where the actual snowfall rate
could overcome the warm ground and above freezing surface temps. The
area at most risk for accumulations would be in areas east of a line
from Bloomington down to Louisville to Somerset.  In these areas a
coating to an inch of accumulation looks likely.  A few spots over
east of the I-75 corridor could see isolated 1.5-2 inches.  Areas
west of I-65 will likely see less than an inch of accumulation. In
addition to the snow accumulations brief visibility reductions are
expected in the heavier snow showers/squalls and a quick
accumulation on road surfaces could occur.

Given that this is the first snowfall of the season, we will
highlight these threats in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and in a
Special Weather Statement.  As forecast confidence increases, a
Winter Weather Advisory may be needed for the Bluegrass region of
central Kentucky in later forecasts.

By Monday evening, upper level support for snow showers will push
east of the region and snow will quickly taper off from west to
east.  Gusty northwest winds will continue across the area with lows
dropping into the teens/lower 20s.  Wind chill values Tuesday
morning will be in the lower teens.

Tuesday through Saturday...

As the upper level low rolls out of the region, heights will slowly
build back across the region. However, we`ll remain in a west-
northwesterly flow aloft for the remainder of the week.  Overall,
dry conditions are expected Tuesday through Thursday with moderating
temperatures.  A weak perturbation looks to move through the region
on Friday and Saturday which may bring some showers to the region.

Highs on Tuesday will feature a gradient with lower 40s over the
Bluegrass to around 50 in the Bowling Green region.  Highs Wednesday
and Thursday will warm back into the upper 50s/lower 60s.  Friday
should see temps mainly in the lower-middle 60s, with highs on
Saturday warming back into the upper 60s/lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

We are now in a post-frontal regime, with MVFR cigs and gusty NW
winds. We`ll see some light rain move into the area from the north
through this afternoon, which will eventually turn over to light
snow for the evening hours. Precip will be isolated to scattered,
and not consistent over time, so went with PROB30 groups to instead
highlight the times of greatest chances. We will likely see a lull
in activity overnight, along with cigs briefly improving to VFR,
before another slug of moisture drops south from the Great Lakes
into the region. For tomorrow, we`ll see periods of snow showers
from mid-morning through the afternoon, which could be briefly heavy
at times and reduce vis. Cigs will also lower back down to MVFR,
with winds continuing to filter in from the NW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJP
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CJP