368
FXUS63 KLMK 211848
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
248 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered thunderstorms (30-50% coverage) are forecast mainly
  along and southeast of the Western Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways
  this evening. There is a level 1 of 5 (Marginal) risk for severe
  weather, with locally damaging winds the primary hazard.

* Cooler weather will gradually overspread the area this week,
  with highs likely in the 70s north of an Owensboro to
  Stanford, KY line tomorrow, and area-wide Wednesday through
  Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Things have been pretty quiet early this afternoon as the airmass
tries to recover. The boundary that was sinking southward across
Kentucky this morning has mostly washed out across the area, and
starting to see some signs of a more unstable environment across
southern KY where some agitated Cu are showing up on satellite. In
addition, a 2000-2500 J/KG ML CAPE axis is starting to build into
our SE CWA. The biggest question with this evening is whether storms
will initiate? Not a lot of triggering available outside of diurnal
heating and the synoptic front starting to get a push southward. If
they do get going, it does appear that there will be enough deep
layer shear (25-35 knots) for some updraft organization at least
into some multicell clusters, if not a supercell or two. Pretty
unidirectional shear profile with high LCLs and non-favorable low
level wind shear will only promote a very isolated wind threat. No
tornado threat if a supercell storm mode does develop. Overall
coverage should stay isolated to widely scattered, so will mainly
carry chance pops for areas along and south of the Western Kentucky
and Bluegrass Parkways. There is a secondary area of an isolated
chance of a shower or storm up along where the synoptic cold
currently front sits, but confidence is pretty low in development
here where instability is weaker. Overall, the best time frame for
development looks to be 4-10 PM EDT.

A few showers or a storm could linger across the southern CWA into
the overnight as the front gets a good push southward. However,
overall convective trends should be downward. Could see a few gusts
out of the N between 20-25 with the frontal passage, even after
sunset.

Cooler air is more established over our area tomorrow behind the
cold front. As a result, highs only make it into the mid and upper
70s across southern IN and northern KY. Across southern KY, temps
should still hold onto the lower 80s during the afternoon. A few
showers or a storm could linger across the SE CWA for tomorrow ahead
of a weak shortwave trough axis approaching the area. Confidence
isn`t high, and the main story will be the overall cooler
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Wednesday - Monday...

The overall upper pattern will be pretty interesting by mid week as
it will feature hybrid Omega/Rex blocking near and over our region.
The main part of the Omega Block will stretch from the western Gulf
Coast states up into eastern Canada. Meanwhile, the Rex Block will
take shape as a cutoff low settles over Ohio. This closed upper low
will be close enough to our region to support a few lingering precip
chances mainly along the I-75 corridor on Wednesday. Outside of
that, the rest of the CWA should be dry. Temperatures will be
seasonable for this time of year ranging from the low 70s across
southern IN to the upper 70s across southern KY.

As we move through late week, the aforementioned closed upper low
will center more over the mid Atlantic states, with the Omega block
getting a bit more established over our area. This will keep us dry,
likely lasting through the weekend, possibly into early next week.
Temperatures will continue to be seasonal for this time of year with
highs in the 70s heading into the weekend. By Sunday/Monday, temps
will likely start to trend back above normal and more into the low
80s. It`s also worth noting that some cool/crisp mornings will be in
store, with Saturday/Sunday mornings being the coolest. Looking for
lows in the upper 40s and low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 148 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

A cool frontal boundary is sinking southward across the area, and
could still be the catalyst for some isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorm development across the BWG/RGA TAF sites late afternoon
into the evening. LEX could also be impacted by a storm, but most of
the activity should be south of that terminal. Outside of that,
conditions are VFR currently however, do expect lowering ceilings
into the low MVFR and/or IFR range (especially LEX/RGA) later
tonight into Tuesday morning. Will also see a notable uptick in
surface winds later this evening as the main frontal boundary gets a
push southward. Perhaps even a few N-S gusts up around 20 mph.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...BJS