467
FXUS63 KLMK 221047
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
647 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A cold front will bring a chance for showers and storms this
  afternoon. A few storms may become strong east of I-65, with the
  main severe hazards being gusty to damaging winds and hail.

* Mild and dry conditions are expected for Sunday through Tuesday.

* Warming temperatures and low rain chances return by the middle of
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Clear skies and calm winds has allowed for valley fog to develop.
Fog will begin to burn off as the sun rises.

A shortwave trough will move through the region today, bringing a
surface cold front with it. Given that these features will be moving
through in the afternoon, this will bring a lifting mechanism to
present moisture and ample instability. Looking to see showers and
storms develop late morning and into the early afternoon along and
ahead of the cold front. 25kts of 0-6km shear and 3500 J/kg of
SBCAPE will allow for a few strong to severe storms. Main hazards
will be damaging winds and hail. As the cold front pushes southeast
over the region, it will bring showers and storms with it. Main
timeframe is 1PM to 8PM ET. The greatest threat area will be over
northern and eastern Kentucky.

Overnight, skies will clear and winds will become light. With recent
precip from afternoon showers, patchy fog development will be
possible. Drier air will build into the region and allow
temperatures to fall into the low-to-mid 60s by Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Drier and slightly cooler air will remain over the region through
early next week as high pressure and northwesterly flow aloft
dominate. Morning lows will be in the low 60s and some areas falling
into the upper 50s. Afternoon dew points are expected to be in the
50s and low 60s, which will lend to more comfortable conditions.

Tuesday, we will see ridging over the western CONUS begin to broaden
and push into the mid-Mississippi Valley. This will increase
temperatures in the lower Ohio Valley back to near normal. At the
same time, a warm front will push northeast into the Tennessee
Valley. If this front makes it into the lower Ohio Valley, we will
see increased moisture and chances for showers and storms. If this
front stays to the southwest, we will likely remain dry through mid
next week.

Thursday, a trough will deepen and move through the Ohio Valley,
bringing a weak cold front with it. This system will likely bring
another chance for showers and storms. Behind the cold front, drier
air will move into the region. Though, temperatures will remain
around normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 647 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Winds will pick up out of the southwest ahead of a cold front moving
in from the north. As this front passes through in the afternoon,
winds will gust up to 22kts and shift to the northwest. PROB30s are
currently in the TAFs from about 15-23Z for showers and storms along
the front. With sunset, winds will relax and precip will dissipate.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...SRW