743
FXUS63 KLMK 210657
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
257 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Chance for showers and storms Saturday afternoon. A few storms may
  become strong. Main threats will be gusty winds and small hail.

* Milder conditions are forecasted for Sunday through Tuesday
  morning. Low temperatures dip into the low 60s.

* Chances for showers and storms increase mid next week as a warm
  front pushes north into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Clear skies and light winds this morning has allowed for dense
valley fog to develop. This is expected to expand through the
remainder of the overnight period. An SPS has been issued for fog
through 1230Z (830am ET).

Deep troughing will remain over the eastern CONUS as ridging
continues to build over the western CONUS. These features will keep
northwestern flow aloft over the lower Ohio Valley. At the surface,
high pressure will keep conditions mostly dry for today. A surface
stationary front over Tennessee may help a few showers and storms to
develop near the Lake Cumberland region this afternoon.

Overnight tonight into Saturday, a shortwave trough will swing
through the region. This will bring decaying showers along the cold
front in the early morning hours Saturday over southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky. The upper trough and cold front will push into
the eastern half of the region in the afternoon. With daytime
heating, this will allow enough instability and lift to develop
showers and a few storms. Weak shear may allow for a storm or two to
become strong, bringing a marginal threat for gusty winds and small
hail. Main threat area will be the Bluegrass and northeastern
portions of the CWA in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Behind the cold front, we will see drier and cooler weather. Lows
Sunday morning through Tuesday morning are forecasted to be in the
low 60s, which is about 6-9 degrees below normal for this time of
year. Expecting to see overall drier conditions, though a few
showers and storms will be possible as vorticity streams along
northwesterly flow aloft.

Moving into mid next week, a weak surface low pressure is expected
to develop over the central Plains and a warm front will lift north
into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. This will increase moisture and
lift over the region, bringing increased chances for showers and
storms. At the same time, upper ridging will broaden into the mid-
Mississippi Valley and increase temperatures back to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 137 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Clear skies and light winds has allowed for valley fog to develop
over the region. This is expected to expand and begin to impact the
terminals. At this time, MVFR VIS is expected in the pre-dawn hours.
Some fog prone areas may dip lower than MVFR from 10-12Z. Confidence
in CIGs below VFR levels is low at this time. With sunrise, fog will
burn off. Low level moisture will allow BKN Cu from 3500-5000ft this
afternoon. 4-7kt winds will shift from the northeast to the
northwest in the afternoon. As the sun sets this evening, winds will
become calm to light.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...SRW