012
FXUS63 KLMK 301946
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
346 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Tomorrow, gusty southwest winds lift highs to the upper 80s to
  low 90s.

* Slow moving cold front will bring widespread rain showers to the
  region late Thursday night through Friday night. Showers may
  return across southern KY through Saturday night.

* Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s expected behind the front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Through the day tomorrow, the Lower Ohio Valley remains uneventful
with light zonal flow overhead and high pressure in place at the
surface from a high centered off the East Coast. To the west, in the
Four Corners region, an upper low with a nearby surface low is
sliding slowly to the east, increasing the pressure gradient over
southern Indiana and central Kentucky, driving southwest winds and
warm air advection. Winds will ease some, but light WAA will will
limit falling temperatures to the 60s tonight before temperatures
warm to the upper 80s to low 90s tomorrow as the pressure gradient
continues to increase, causing southwest winds to gust to 25-30 mph.
We will see scattered upper level clouds, but low levels remain dry.

Thursday night, the aforementioned closed upper low begins to
dissipate as it gets picked up by stronger zonal flow to the north,
remaining north of an upper high parked over the Southeast.
Underneath this at the surface, a northeast to southwest oriented
cold front will slide through Indiana and the Ozarks towards the
CWA. Southern flow ahead of the front will increase precipitable
water values from around an inch to closer to two along the front.

Around midnight, rain chances begin to increase from the west and
push east over the CWA with peak rain chances lasting through the
day Friday. Model soundings continue to show a very stable column.
Thunder isn`t ruled out, but nothing severe is expected. Around half
of an inch to around an inch is expected across southern Indiana and
central Kentucky. CAA behind the front is expected to drop
temperatures into the 70s through the weekend.

By Saturday morning, rain chances are expected to be south of
central Kentucky before a chance of light rain works back north into
the CWA Saturday night.

Sunday, an upper trough moving over the Great Lakes pushes a large
surface high southeast through the Upper Plains and Midwest, helping
to push high pressure behind the front into the Ohio Valley, brining
an end to rain chances. Mostly clear skies become common into early
next week. The continued CAA is expected to limit highs to the upper
60s for our northern communities on Monday and Tuesday before the
center of the surface high passes east of the CWA, returning WAA and
slightly warmer temperatures for midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. After
winds ease and become less gusty tonight, an increasing pressure
gradient will cause southwest winds to gust over 20 knots during the
day tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KDW
AVIATION...KDW