022
FXUS63 KLMK 011712
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
112 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Today, gusty southwest winds increase highs to the upper 80s
  to low 90s.

* Slow moving cold front will bring widespread rain showers to the
  region late Thursday night through Friday night. Showers may
  return across southern KY through Saturday night.

* Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s expected for the weekend and
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

As the upper level, positively tilted trough shifts east the Ohio
Valley is positioned downwind of the trough axis. Strong
southwesterly flow continues to bring in moisture and warmer
temperatures. Increased pressure gradient and mixing heights above
6k ft will bring wind gust this afternoon over 25 mph. Winds will
subside overnight with 5 - 10 mph southerly winds. Maximum
temperatures for this afternoon are expected to be in the low 90s
across the area.

The low pressure that is associated with the upper level troughing,
begins to lift into a more zonal flow pattern aloft. A cold front
will then begin to push southeast through the area early Friday.
This in combination with ample moisture will bring widespread rain
showers through the day Friday. Rain chances will increase starting
in southern IN between 2AM - 5AM, and move SE through the CWA. Ahead
of the boundary, PWATs over 2 inches will surge into the area. Heavy
rainfall rates can be expected, however hydro concerns are low. QPF
values will range 0.5" - 1" across the CWA. No severe threat is
expected with this system as instability is limited and wind shear
is marginal.

Maximum temperatures on Friday will vary north to south as the
frontal boundary will be set over the area. Along and north of the
Ohio River will likely only see highs in the mid 70s, while south
central KY highs in the low 80s. Rain chances will decrease late
Friday with 30% chances in the southern part of the CWA through
Saturday morning.

Post frontal boundary, surface high pressure will build in bringing
northeasterly flow back to the Ohio Valley. A cooler and drier
airmass will build back into region making for a pleasant weekend.
Daytime highs are expected to be in the low to upper 70s with
nighttime lows in low 50s. Ridging and high pressure will continue
for the first half of the week with mostly clear skies and dry
conditions. Temperatures will look to stay around climatological
normals to start the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 112 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

For the afternoon hours, VFR conditions are expected at the
terminals.  Winds will be gusty this afternoon with southwest winds
of 10-12 knots and gusts of 20-22kts being possible through about
01/22Z.  Winds will slacken off toward sunset but will remain out of
the southwest while upper level cloud cover creeps into the region
from the west.  Surface cold front will push toward the area
overnight, but showers are not expected to move into the HNB
terminal until around 02/06-08Z and then into SDF/BWG by 02/13-14Z
and then into LEX/RGA by 02/15-16Z.  Cigs look to remain VFR on
Friday, but we could drop down into the MVFR range by late
afternoon/evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CAL
AVIATION.....MJ