301
FXUS63 KLMK 292332
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
732 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry conditions and warmer than average temperatures will continue
  Friday. Clouds increase becoming overcast on Halloween.

* Chances for rain have increased somewhat (near 60-70%), although
  rainfall totals remain highly uncertain. High end totals of just
  under and inch in the southwest to very little in the Bluegrass is
  possible.

* A more unsettled weather pattern is expected next week, with
  our next widespread rain chance occurring on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

===== Clouds Increase with Increasing Rain Chances Sunday =====

Temperatures are on track to reach the mid to upper 70s and isolated
80 degrees in our southern communities. Skies are clear now with
winds gusting to 20 MPH at times. After sunset, winds will become
near calm with high level clouds streaming in overhead. Lows will
reach the upper 40s to low 50s by sunrise as clouds continue to
build from moisture streaming in from Texas, and from a slowly
descending cold front in our north. As this front moves into our
southern Indiana counties in the early morning, dew points will drop
and slightly cooler air will move in. This front will be aided by a
weak high near 700 mb with northerly flow to push it near or along
the Cumberland Parkway. In the morning, some low to mid level clouds
will move in across our northern counties and will slowly raise
higher as they progress to the south by early afternoon. Highs are
coolest across our north in the low to mid 70s and in the upper 70s
to near 80 near the TN border.

Despite this southward push of cooler air, it will be relatively
short lived as SW flow returns later in the day with continuous
moisture advection trying to erode away the dry air in place at the
surface. Lows on Saturday morning will be in the upper 40s to mid
50s again as overcast skies take hold. What will be going on then is
the slow retreat of a high to our east while the remnants of what`s
left of TC Vance and a weak wave along the Gulf begin to move
northwards towards KY late Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Saturday will remain dry however, as highs remain mild in the mid
70s in the south and upper 60s across our north. A warm air mass
will move in late Saturday into Sunday and act as a precursor to the
moist advection from the remnants of Vance.

Sunday morning, continuous moisture advection from the SW with the
approaching wave will increase PWATs somewhere in the 1.1-1.4"
range. Seems now that total rainfall has increased a little,
considering the recent Euro/CMC guidance. GFS guidance has the most
robust signal. Considering moisture advection has to overcome PWATs
near 0.5" along with dry air at the surface, it may take awhile for
incoming rain to reach the ground, meaning the atmosphere will
moisten from the top-down.

The approaching wave will act as an inverted trough on the west side
of the retreating high and will bring showers, potentially with
moderate rainfall rates, especially in our SW communities. Since the
moisture from the Gulf and the remnant energy from Vance has a long
way to travel and must erode counteractive preexisting conditions
away, rainfall totals entail a lot of uncertainty. 25-75th
percentile range anywhere from a trace to just under an inch. So the
high end of rainfall totals have increased, but the lower end hasn`t
changed since the last update. For now, expect spotty to scattered
showers Sunday morning through the evening hours, with residual
drizzle or sprinkles leftover that may last into Monday. Highs range
in the mid 60s to near 70, with the Bluegrass region remaining the
warmest coinciding with the lowest rainfall potential.

===== Anticipating Busy Pattern Next Week =====

Residual moisture with southerly flow remaining Monday will keep
cloud cover around and the occasional shower or sprinkle in the
afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s as well, with
little change in the weather during the day. As the week progresses,
a deep trough will be moving east through the Rockies and slowly
approach the Ohio Valley. Within this trough, the Pacific
subtropical jet will be feeding moisture to the expectant developing
low within the trough as it moves east of the Rockies. This low will
be cut off from the polar jet and without strong steering flow, will
progress eastwards slowly and potentially meander through the
Plains. Right now, the best timing for our next rainfall seems to be
on Wednesday, possibly as late as the overnight hours into Thursday.
This incoming low has a greater potential to dump more rain on us
with increasing PWATs and greater moisture feed from the
Pacific/Gulf, although probabilities of our CWA receiving more than
an inch of rain Wednesday only reaches a maximum of 25% in our
southwest. For now, just know that PoPs increase again by middle of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 731 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.
Clear skies will continue tonight promoting radiational cooling,
leaving the possibility for patchy localized fog in prone areas.
Winds overnight will become light and variable as a cold front
approaches from the NW. As the front begins to push through the
region, mid to high level clouds will move in tomorrow afternoon.
Winds tomorrow will settle into a northeasterly flow ranging 5-8kts
during the day.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BKF
AVIATION...CAL