833
FXUS63 KLMK 041040
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
640 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry weather expected through the end of the week, with afternoon
  highs in the mid 80s to low 90s.

* Muggy weather increases this weekend as daily showers and storms
  return by Sunday afternoon.

* Above average temperatures continue through early next week with
  upper 80s and low 90s continuing at least through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

     Thursday - Friday Night...

Despite some cirrus clouds streaming in, mostly clear skies will
continue tonight and throughout the day tomorrow. Morning lows will
be just at or slightly above normal in the mid to upper 50s. A deep
and strong high pressure will slowly drift to the south and east,
shifting surface winds out of the southwest. This will boost
temperatures a little warmer with increasing dew points as well. The
general forecast trend beginning tomorrow will continue to see this
high pressure lingering just close enough to keep weather dry but
warm and muggy at the same time. Tomorrow`s highs will range in the
mid to upper 80s.

Calm weather will continue through Friday as shortwaves stay well
north of the area. High pressure begins to break down Friday and
weaken. However, SW flow will remain Friday boosting temperatures
warmer than average. Morning lows will be in the upper 50s to low
60s with warmer than average afternoon highs in the mid to upper
80s. With plenty of mixing, wind gusts could reach up to 20 mph,
though Friday will remain mostly sunny and calm. Overnight Friday, a
trough over southern Canada will approach the Ohio Valley bringing
in a trailing cold front into Saturday morning. However, this front
will be stalling somewhere north of the CWA, meaning any rain
chances will likely stay north of the area by then, albeit with
increasing cloud coverage. This stagnant, strong high pressure will
be pretty stubborn to relent considering 500mb heights approaching
80th percentile heights. With this in mind, bringing in rain chances
will be difficult this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

     Saturday - Early Next Week...

Come Saturday morning, increasing clouds over the northern CWA will
bring in small PoPs for any remnant showers that try to move towards
our area. Most likely everyone remains dry with the continued
subsidence from the high pressure to our southeast. Highs on
Saturday will be warm despite cloud cover in the upper 80s with
isolated 90s. Dew points will make the afternoon feel muggy and
sticky in the low to mid 60s as general SW flow persists in the
afternoon. As the trailing cold front stalls north of the area, a
pressure gradient will build Saturday afternoon, and wind gusts will
increase to 20-25 MPH as a result. If nothing else, this will serve
as a breeze to cool people off in the evening.

Saturday night, a messy weather pattern builds in. Surface
cyclogenesis east of the Rockies will work in tandem with the SW
flow from the nearby high pressure to increase moisture transport
from the Gulf into KY. There is still some uncertainty with how many
showers or weak general storms will move in from the SW beginning
Sunday morning as general flow aloft and at the surface is weak.
However, with any daytime heating and dew points raising into the
upper 60s by Sunday afternoon, increasing PoPs with scattered
showers and storms will continue next week.

With continued weak synoptic flow, shortwaves generally stay too far
north to bring any swift changes to the overall pattern. So
scattered diurnally driven showers and storms will continue through
Monday and Tuesday next week. Latest LREF ensemble mean for PWAT
values range near 1.75-1.9". We will definitely have the moisture
for heavy downpours from storms by then. Should a boundary stall
close enough to the CWA, especially over the northern border
counties, then rainfall totals of close to an inch by Tuesday night
are possible. Too early to get specific with rainfall totals but
daily rain chances with highs in the mid 80s and low 90s seem to
continue through mid week. Any relief from heat would have to be
from an incoming trough from Canada. As of now, the jet seems to
remain too far north for any cooler air, meaning above average
temperatures will continue through mid week as well.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. Despite a
few passing cirrus clouds from time to time today, mostly clear to
clear skies are expected this TAF period. Calm to light SE winds
will shift out of the SW here shortly in the next few hours,
increasing to 6-8 kts in the afternoon. More high level clouds
stream in from the south and west tonight with lighter SW winds
overnight. VFR conditions will continue tonight and into tomorrow
morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BKF
LONG TERM...BKF
AVIATION...BKF