265
FXUS63 KLMK 021746
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
146 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Today, scattered shower and thunderstorm chances return for the
  afternoon and evening hours.

* Best chance for .5" to 1" of rainfall will be across southern and
  eastern KY through Thursday.

* A second cold front will bring additional rain chances to the
  region Friday night or early Saturday. This will bring cool and
  dry air for the rest of the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1053 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Across the area this morning, most locations have been dry, although
a couple clusters of showers and thunderstorms have developed and
sustained over the past few hours. One of these clusters, currently
over Shelby/Henry/Franklin County, is right on the northern edge of
a pool of higher sfc dewpoints, so there is likely some sfc moisture
convergence helping to support that convection. A few showers have
also popped to the southwest of Bowling Green; so far, these have
not exhibited as much development as the cluster to the north.

Over the next few hours, additional heating should support the
development of a scattered cumulus field across the area, especially
in the pool of higher sfc dewpoints across central and southern KY.
Subsequent development of at least scattered showers and
thunderstorms still appears likely by early-to-mid afternoon, with
2000-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE developing in the presence of mid-60s
dewpoints. Deep-layer shear on the order of 15-20 kt should mean
that convection is generally of the garden-variety, though one or
two more organized storms could bring down gusty winds this
afternoon.

Otherwise, temperatures should warm into the mid 80s in most
locations this afternoon. The forecast is on track at this hour,
with near-term PoPs being updated to better reflect current activity
between Shelbyville and New Castle.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 412 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Today, northwest flow will push a shortwave southeast from the
Midwest towards the Lower Ohio Valley. This along with the pooled
moisture (PWATS around 1") over the CWA from the inverted surface
trough will allow for better chances for increased coverage of
scattered showers. The best chances for precipitation still remain
south of the Ohio River, but a few showers and thunderstorms could
still make it into southern Indiana. Instability and shear remain
limited, so not expecting anything severe. High temperatures are
expected to reach into the low to mid 80s.

Tonight, any remaining showers and thunderstorms will begin to fade
early in the night. More cloud cover can be expected over southern
Kentucky with clearer skies farther north towards the Ohio River.
With light winds and added moisture from today`s rain, areas that
clear could see some patchy fog heading into Wednesday morning.
Low temperatures are expected to drop into the low 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 412 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

With a shortwave moving through early Wednesday, it`s looking
increasing like precipitation chance could remain east of the CWA,
remaining in eastern Kentucky. We are keeping low chances of
precipitation along the CWA`s eastern border, including the eastern
Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions, but most across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky should see a day with a lot of sunshine
and dry. Highs remain in that low to mid 80s range.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning, a cold front remains on track
to bring additional widespread showers to the area. Most of the CWA
could receive around 0.25" or rain, but high amounts and chances
currently appear to be over the northeast part of the CWA with the
lowest chances over the southwestern parts of the CWA, near Bowling
Green. Given the early arrive of the front, model soundings look
very stable once again, so severe weather isn`t expected.
Precipitation will exit the central Kentucky by Thursday night.

Models continue to agree on a second reinforcing cold front arriving
sometime Friday or Saturday. The Euro solution continues to be the
slower solution, brining the front and additional rainfall to the
southern Indiana Friday night and central Kentucky early Saturday,
but the GFS is a little quicker, arriving during the day Friday. Now
that they both have precipitation with deep layer moisture reaching
to PWAT values to around 1.6-1.75". Rainfall amounts are still low,
but this could increase in coming forecasts when agreement is
better.

Behind the front, skies are expected to become mostly sunny on
Saturday and last at least into the beginning of next week as
surface high pressure builds in over the region. High temperatures
return to the 70s and low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Showers and thunderstorms have blossomed across the region over the
past 1-2 hours, and are expected to continue through the mid-to-late
evening hours. The greatest coverage is expected to be at
BWG/LEX/RGA, with more isolated TSRA possible near SDF. With a low
pressure axis extending over the region, wind directions will be
quite variable today, though speeds should generally be 10 kt or
less outside of TSRA where stronger gusts are possible.

Tonight, SHRA/TSRA should diminish, especially after 03Z, with VFR
conditions expected for the early overnight hours. By around sunrise
Wednesday, patchy IFR/MVFR fog or low stratus may impact area
terminals, in particular RGA and BWG; however, confidence was too
low to carry in the forecast at this time.

Otherwise, mostly VFR conditions and SW winds between 6-10 kt are
expected for the day on Wednesday. A stray shower or storm cannot be
ruled out, particularly at RGA/BWG.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...CSG