528
FXUS63 KLMK 011857
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
257 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Gusty winds will continue this afternoon with highs in the upper
  80s to around 90.

* Slow moving cold front will bring widespread rain showers to the
  region late tonight through Friday night.  Additional rounds of
  showers are possible across southern Kentucky on Saturday.

* Dry weather will return to the region by Sunday with much of next
  week remaining dry.  Temperatures next week will be seasonal with
  large diurnal temperature ranges.  Some spots across southern
  Indiana and northern Kentucky will see overnight drop into the
  upper 30s Tuesday and Wednesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Near Term through Tonight...

Afternoon satellite imagery shows mostly sunny skies across the
region.  Breezy southwest winds have allowed temperatures to warm
into the 86-89 degree range as of mid-afternoon.  With a few more
hours of heating, we`ll see temps top out in the upper 80s with a
few spots breaking 90.  We expect the gusty winds to diminish toward
sunset.  During the evening, we`ll see high level cloud cover
continue to increase from west to east while temperatures fall back
into the 70s.  Clouds will continue thicken overnight while a cold
frontal boundary approaches from the west.  Southwest low-level flow
will continue overnight bringing added moisture into the region.  As
the front approaches, showers will move into southwest Indiana after
midnight, mainly between 2-5 AM.  Current thinking is that rainfall
along/southeast of the Ohio River will hold off until after sunrise
on Friday.  A tenth to quarter inch of rainfall is expected across
southern Indiana overnight.  Lows will mainly be in the upper 60s in
Indiana with mainly lower 70s across much of Kentucky.

Friday through Saturday Night...

Low amplitude trough axis will trek through the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley during the period.  As the trough passes, a surface cold
front will slice through the region.  Widespread rain showers are
expected across the outlook area during the day on Friday and into
Friday Night.  Model proximity soundings continue show a relatively
moist airmass characterized by weak low and mid-level lapse rates.
Wind shear through the column also remains very weak.  Abundant
cloud cover and ongoing precipitation will likely limit instability
during day.  However, there may be localized pockets of instability
that develop which may yield a few rumbles of thunder across the
region.  At this time, the risk of severe weather is very low. Model
soundings also show PWATs above 2 inches during the day, so any
organized shower activity can put down some locally heavy rainfall.
However, the recent dry spell across the region will allow this
rainfall to infiltrate and hydrologic issues are not expected.  A
solid half to one inch of rainfall is expected.  Highs on the day
will vary depending on where the frontal boundary ends up.  Highs on
the north side of the front will only reach the upper 60s to around
70.  South of the front highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s are
expected.  Lows Friday night will drop into the lower 50s in Indiana
with mid-upper 50s across Kentucky.  Our southern KY counties may
stay just south of the front and may remain in the low 60s overnight.

For Saturday, upper trough axis will push off to the east while the
upper flow becomes more zonal.  This will allow the front to push
further southward as a wave of low pressure develops along it.
Additional rounds of showers are likely for Saturday, mainly in
areas south of the WK/BG Parkway.  Skies will be mostly cloudy with
highs in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.  Some partial clearing may
take place Saturday night as lows fall into the upper 40s/lower 50s
over southern Indiana with mainly mid-upper 50s across Kentucky.

Sunday through Thursday...

Secondary upper trough axis will push through the region on Sunday
and allow the cold front from the weekend to continue to push
southward.  High pressure will build into the region from the
Midwest.  For much of next week, the upper flow pattern will feature
a ridge across the west with a downstream trough centered near the
US east coast.  This will keep the Ohio Valley in a northwest to
west-northwest flow aloft with seasonal fall temperatures.  Highs
Sunday through Tuesday will feature highs in the upper 60s to around
70 across southern Indiana and across the northern half of Kentucky.
Southern Kentucky will see readings in the lower 70s.  We`ll see
large diurnal swings in temperatures as good radiational cooling is
expected for Monday night and Tuesday night.  Lows Tuesday/Wednesday
morning will likely drop into the upper 30s and the lower 40s with
some patchy frost being possible across our northern zones.
Temperatures will rebound a bit by Wednesday and Thursday with
daytime highs warming back into the mid-upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 112 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

For the afternoon hours, VFR conditions are expected at the
terminals.  Winds will be gusty this afternoon with southwest winds
of 10-12 knots and gusts of 20-22kts being possible through about
01/22Z.  Winds will slacken off toward sunset but will remain out of
the southwest while upper level cloud cover creeps into the region
from the west.  Surface cold front will push toward the area
overnight, but showers are not expected to move into the HNB
terminal until around 02/06-08Z and then into SDF/BWG by 02/13-14Z
and then into LEX/RGA by 02/15-16Z.  Cigs look to remain VFR on
Friday, but we could drop down into the MVFR range by late
afternoon/evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION.....MJ