433
FXUS63 KLMK 291910
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
310 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* There is a very low (<15%) chance for a shower this afternoon,
  mainly across central KY.

* Isolated to scattered daytime shower/storm chances will return
  across southern KY for Labor Day, and then all other locations
  through mid to late week. Potential for beneficial rainfall
  amounts has increased, but is still relatively low.

* A strong front will bring another shot of cool and dry air to the
  region late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Another pleasant day ongoing across the region as a dry cool front
slowly sinks southward across KY. A fairly healthy cu field has
developed along and ahead of the front, so still can`t rule out a
few blips on radar as we near peak heating. Still plan to keep a dry
(pops <15%) forecast going, with only a small chance of a few
sprinkles or light showers across central KY until early evening.
Outside of that, temps continue to run below normal with most values
currently in the low to mid 80s. A few upper 80s are possible across
southern KY ahead of the front.

Look for mostly clear and cooler conditions tonight with lows mostly
in the low to mid 50s. Saturday brings mostly sunny skies and highs
in the upper 70s and low 80s thanks to a steady NE surface wind.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Saturday Night - Sunday Night...

Our dry and pleasant stretch of weather continue through the heart
of the holiday weekend as an expansive Great Lakes region surface
high controls our area. Look for continued chilly nights mostly in
the low to mid 50s, along with slightly below normal highs mostly in
the low and mid 80s for Sunday.

Monday - Thursday...

Mostly dry conditions remain for the Labor Day holiday, however we
will continue to mention isolated to widely scattered shower or
storm chances by Monday afternoon/evening for areas along and south
of the Parkways. There has been a consistent signal handled by
models pretty well showing an inverted surface trough, with
diurnally driven activity sparking along it. Only real question will
be just how far north to taper pops, but so far the placement has
also been pretty consistent.

Going into the new work week, the upper pattern will be a bit messy
as three distinct shortwaves will be embedded within a large parent
trough covering the eastern half of the CONUS. We`ll carry scattered
coverage of showers and storms Monday night into Tuesday as one of
those shortwave rotates through the TN/OH River Valleys. These
chances will then continue through at least Wednesday night, if not
Thursday, as the strongest of the disturbances listed above digs and
closes off into an anomalous closed low over the upper Great Lakes
region. This should enhance the deep moisture transport over our
area ahead of this stronger trough axis, with an expected swath of
more widespread coverage of showers and storms likely from sometime
late Tuesday night through early Thursday morning. Like the trend of
pops increasing for that time frame, with the only thing hurting
confidence for the moment being exact timing. That will work itself
out in the coming days as models get a better handle of the complex
evolution of the shortwaves within the parent trough. If anything,
the 29/00z LREF probabilities for .5" and 1" of rainfall have gone
up just a bit from yesterday. Still looking like the most likely
scenario will be most folks somewhere between .5" and 1" from late
Monday through early Thursday. Again, this won`t do much to the
steadily worsening drought, but the rainfall will at least help
mitigate some of the impacts temporarily. Temps stay below normal
for this stretch with mostly upper 70s and low 80s for highs.

Thursday Night - Friday...

Impressive trough will be over the eastern CONUS through late week,
with surface high pressure building in behind a passing cold front.
This will likely bring even cooler temperatures than we`ve seen to
this point to the area. Highs on Thu/Fri only look to be in the low
70s, with perhaps a few spots across our north not getting out of
the 60s! Overnight lows will also be quite chilly in the upper 40s
and low 50s for most.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 139 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through this forecast cycle. A weak cool
front is currently sinking southward of across central KY, with
steady N winds taking hold behind the front. Will continue to see an
occasional gust to between 15 and 20 mph at times through early
evening. In addition, expect sct-bkn cumulus around 5-7 k feet.
Winds slacken this evening and go light and variable or keep a very
light N-NE component. Look for mostly clear skies for Saturday, with
light to steady NE surface winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...BJS