797
FXUS63 KLMK 222055
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
Issued by National Weather Service St Louis MO
455 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Gorgeous weather conditions by mid to late July standards are
   expected tonight through Thursday night. In fact, may be able
   to open the windows next few nights given low temperatures
   falling into the 50s!

*  Warmth and humidity gradually return over the weekend and
   peak in magnitude on Monday with peak heat indices near 100F.

*  Next rain chances arrive Friday night into Saturday morning,
   but severe weather appears unlikely at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 425 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Get out and enjoy the increasingly drier/less humid airmass this
evening if you can. Steady light northerly breezes will continue
to advect lower dew points in from the N. In fact, portions of S
Indiana have already fallen into the upper 50s for late
afternoon dew points...and expect this drier air to continue
southward to provide relief to even southern areas along KY/TN
border for tonight. The drier airmass will also support much
cooler overnight lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. So a
relatively rare mid-late summer opportunity to open up the
windows overnight. Fortunately, the cooler air from the N is NOT
being accompanied by much smoke.

Thursday will be absolutely gorgeous by mid-late July standards
with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s amidst comfortable
humidity and plenty of sunshine. This is due to a large area of
seasonably strong (+1 to +2 standard deviations relative to
climatology) parked over the Chicagoland region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 425 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Expect the same overall pattern to continue Thursday night and
into Friday with upper ridging over the Western States and an
upper trough over the Northeast. Friday will be a tad warmer as
the large upper high slowly shifts eastward, but it will still
quite nice with dew points mostly in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Increasing high level clouds could also help moderate temps,
but expect most - if not all - precip to remain W of the area
closer to the MS River through the daytime hours Friday.

Friday night the surface high pressure shifts far enough east
to allow return flow to begin advecting much higher moisture
(PWATs near 2") ahead of a shortwave flowing around the
periphery of the upper ridge. This is expected to increase rain
chances into the day on Saturday. The best chances for rain are
expected across southern Kentucky and during the AM hours, but
this activity should be fairly benign with severe weather quite
unlikely. If anything, can`t rule out some locally heavy rain
given the aforementioned high PWATs.

The bigger weather story this weekend and into early next week
will likely be the return of considerably warmer and more humid
conditions. Highs look to return into the 90s perhaps as early
as Sunday, but definitely for Monday. Dew points will return to
more seasonable levels in the 70s. This will allow for heat
indices to climb to around triple digits Monday afternoon. The
magnitude of the heat and humidity may dip a bit towards
midweek, which should keep the Heat Risk (cumulative effects)
limited to the "moderate" category. Occasional chances for
precipitation will be introduced next week as waves work towards
the Lower Ohio Valley within northwest upper flow, but nothing
looks overly concerning at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. Ongoing SCT-BKN
clouds around 3-5K ft should gradually dissipate towards sunset,
leaving just some batches of high clouds (20K ft or higher) for
the remainder of the period. Should be mostly clear by Thu AM.

Winds will remain of the N this afternoon around 5-10kt, then
decrease around sunset. After light and variable winds
overnight, the primary wind direction should turn to ESE for Thu
AM. Speeds will remain light, though, at around 5-8 kt.

Confidence: High.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Thies
LONG TERM...Thies
AVIATION...Thies