916
FXUS63 KLMK 261831
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
231 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Pleasant and dry weather will continue through at least Tuesday
  with highs in the mid to upper 70s and mostly clear skies.

* Temperatures will begin to warm back into the 80s next week ahead
  of rain chances returning mid to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Today - Monday Night...

The lower Ohio Valley is being influenced by upper ridging and the
nor`easter to the east. This has allowed cooler northeasterly flow
to keep temperatures mild in the 70s today. This airmass is quite
dry aloft, and coupled with ample mixing, is allowing for dry air to
mix down to the surface. RH levels in the afternoon are crashing
into the upper 20% to mid 30% range and dew points are in the upper
30s and low 40s. This type of set up is allowing for slightly
overachieving temperatures and slightly breezy winds. These
conditions are expected to continue each day through at least
Monday. High clouds will stream over western Kentucky tonight, which
will prevent some cooling. Though wind protected valley areas in the
Bluegrass may dip into the low 40s Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Tuesday - Wednesday...

On Tuesday, surface high pressure will begin to shift east and
southerly flow will return to the region. The remnant energy and
moisture from Hurricane Polo will get swept up by troughing swinging
through the desert southwest. These features will slowly move east
and deepen. This will cause ridging over the eastern CONUS to
amplify. Conditions will remain dry, though temperatures will
increase. Expecting to see temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s
on Tuesday and mid-upper 80s on Wednesday. Dry air aloft and deep
mixing (up to 800mb) may lead to dry air mix down and slightly
overachieving temperatures and breezy winds.

There is higher confidence through Wednesday of dry conditions and
warming temperatures. Looking into ensembles and LREF clustering,
there is good agreement.


Wednesday Night - Friday Night...

A shortwave is expected to move across the Great Lakes, while the
aforementioned western trough develops a surface low pressure over
the Plains. The front associated with the shortwave will stall over
the northern Ohio Valley and the low pressure in the Plains will
begin to ride that boundary northeast. Aloft, strong ridging over
the Southeast CONUS will battle for position over the approaching
trough. Given these features, precip chances will begin to increase
late Wednesday night/Thursday over the northwestern half of the
region. Precip chances will gradually increase to the southeast
going into the weekend. Through Friday night, we are looking at
about 0.25 inches (SE areas) and up to 1 inch (NW areas). Over the
weekend, we could see another 0.5-1 inch.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue. High clouds will continue
to stream over western Kentucky today and through the overnight. Dry
conditions will help to prevent fog formation in the early morning.
Light northeasterly winds will become calm to light overnight and
pick back up by mid-morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...SRW