457
FXUS63 KLMK 100621
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
221 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible
  Sunday afternoon and evening across south-central and eastern
  Kentucky as a weak cold front passes through the area. The risk
  for severe weather is low.

* Up and down temperatures this week; however, temperatures will be
  slightly below normal overall.

* A chance for scattered showers and storms is expected Tuesday
  night into Wednesday. Severe weather is unlikely, and rainfall
  amounts should be light (< 0.25") in most areas.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

The rest of the night looks to remain mostly quiet, but a cold front
is expected to drop south towards the Ohio River late tonight. This
could drop a sprinkle or two across southern Indiana into far north
central Kentucky through the morning hours. Most in the area are
expected to remain dry as model soundings show a large dry area near
the surface. Winds will flip towards the north behind the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

It is a pleasant day across the region, with temperatures in the
70s, and mostly sunny conditions. A bit more cu are noted east
of I-65 this afternoon due to slightly steeper low level lapse
rates, but mid-level subsidence combined with dry low levels
will keep us dry through the rest of the day.

For tonight, a deepening low over Canada will rotate northeast,
leading to an extensive cold front to slide southeastward through
the Ohio Valley overnight. As this front slides into our area by
tomorrow morning, it will be moving away from the upper level
support, and also into a drier airmass with a limited moisture
fetch. This will lead to limited rain chances tonight and into
tomorrow morning, though should see increasing cloud cover.

The cold front will pass through our area tomorrow morning, but
little to no rain is forecast due to meager moisture content and
weak upper level support. However, as the front slides east of I-65
by the afternoon, it could interact with some weak instability to
favor some isolated showers and storms south of the WKY/BG Pkwys.
HREF has a 25% chance of exceeding 500 J/kg of SBCAPE tomorrow
afternoon for that area. The severe weather risk continues to look
low due to limited buoyancy and weak low-level flow. High temps on
Sunday will be tricky given the timing of the frontal passage, and
will likely see a wide range in temps from northwest to southeast.
Expect highs around 70 across southern IN, but close to 80 near Lake
Cumberland.

By Sunday night, the front will be pushing east of the area, a
compact upper jet streak will move across the Ohio Valley. With some
lingering low level moisture present, plain rain showers will be
possible across KY for Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Monday - Wednesday Night...

Monday morning, clouds associated with a departing cold front will
push out of southern KY, with clearing skies and drier air moving in
with the post-frontal air mass on Monday. A surface high pressure
axis will move from NW to SE across the area Monday into Monday
night, with dry conditions continuing into the day on Tuesday.
Temperatures at the beginning of the week should be below normal,
with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s on Monday. Monday night into
Tuesday morning should feature the coolest temperatures in the
extended forecast period, with lows in the 40s across the area. A
few upper 30s will be possible in cooler spots in the Bluegrass;
however, probabilities of temperatures cold enough for frost (<=
37F) are only around 10-15% at this time.

A warming trend is expected on Tuesday as sfc high pressure pushes
off to the east of the Appalachians and another upper shortwave and
sfc low drops from the Canadian Prairies toward the Great Lakes. Mid-
 and high-level clouds should increase from the NW on Tuesday as a
plume of greater moisture moves in from the SW ahead of the next
system.

Tuesday Night into Wednesday, a cold front is expected to drop
through the region in association with the shortwave referenced
above. A byproduct of relatively limited amplitude of the upper
wave, moisture return should be meager ahead of this front, with sfc
dewpoints only progged to rise into the low-to-mid 50s. Further,
model PW forecasts only rise to around the 50th-60th percentile of
model climatology (0.9-1.1") along and ahead of the cold front.
Since both moisture and instability will be limited, while scattered
showers and a few storms will be possible with FROPA, not expecting
a significant strong storm threat, and rainfall amounts should be
less than 0.25" in most locations. With steepening lapse rates and a
relatively tight pressure gradient in the vicinity of the front,
Wednesday should be a windy day for May, with NBM median 24-hr
maximum gusts ranging from 25-35 mph across the area. The gusts
behind the front should bring another shot of cooler and drier air
into the region by Wednesday night, with temperatures falling into
the 40s and low 50s Thursday morning.

Thursday - Next Weekend...

After the mid-week system clears the area, quiet weather is expected
to continue during the second half of the upcoming week. Surface
high pressure will again move across the Ohio Valley on Thursday,
moving off to the east of the area by Friday as the synoptic pattern
remains progressive. While below normal temperatures are favored
Wednesday night through Thursday night with the cooler air mass
overhead, as upper ridging builds east of the Mississippi Valley
Friday into the weekend, a warming trend is likely, with CPC 6-10
day and 8-14 day probabilities of above normal temperatures
increasing into the Ohio Valley.

Signals for precipitation are a bit more mixed as we head into next
weekend. Overall, WPC 500 mb cluster analysis shows good agreement
in upper ridging over the central CONUS; however, there is more
uncertainty on whether or not upper lows will be able to translate
across the top of the ridge and bring chances for showers and storms
into the Ohio Valley. One particularly concerning (but low
confidence) forecast outcome would be stronger ridging leading to a
persistent dry and hot pattern through mid-to-late May. This could
exacerbate ongoing drought conditions, so we`ll continue to monitor
this possibility over the next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR conditions continue through this forecast period. A cold front
will sink southeast through southern IN and central KY today,
bringing a very small chance (10-20%) for a brief shower. The day is
likely to remain dry at any one terminal. Mid-level clouds will
spread in from the northwest through the early to mid-morning hours
with the frontal boundary arriving pretty early in the day.
Additional SCT-BKN lower clouds (5 kft or so) are expected this
afternoon and evening.

Prevailing winds are light out of the SW to begin this period, but
winds will become variable between 08-15Z, veering NW to N and even
NE briefly. The prevailing wind direction stabilizes at NW this
afternoon before gradually veering NNE by early Monday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KDW
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...EBW