259
FXUS63 KLMK 231832
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
232 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry and pleasant conditions are expected to continue through
  Tuesday.

* Warmer temperatures (mid to upper 80s) and chances for showers and
  storms return by mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Calm winds and clear skies will allow for the potential of fog
development tonight. Patchy fog and areas of valley fog are expected
through the early morning hours, especially north and west of I64.

Surface high pressure will remain over the Ohio Valley with an upper
level trough to the NE and a ridge to the west. Northwesterly flow
will keep high temperatures in the mid 80s, and lows in the upper
50s low 60s through Tuesday afternoon. Dewpoints will remain in the
mid to upper 50s allowing for a very pleasant and comfortable start
to the work week.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

As the surface high pressure moves off to the east, an upper level
trough and low pressure system will move into the Great Lakes
region. A shortwave disturbance and frontal boundary will bring rain
chances back into the forecast for the later half of the week.

By Wednesday afternoon/evening, southwesterly flow will return and
bring moisture back into the region. PWAT values are expected to be
back above 1" for the remainder of the week. A weak upper level
disturbance will move through the region Wednesday into Thursday
bringing scattered showers and storms. At this time, no severe
threats are expected. Thursday evening, a cold front will begin to
push into the Ohio Valley allowing for another round of rain and
possible storms. Guidance is currently showing ample instability for
storm development, however effective bulk shear is weak. Therefore,
any storms that do form could have the potential to become strong
but severe threats are not currently expected.

Post frontal boundary, daytime temperatures are expected to remain
around normal in the mid to upper 80s. A drier airmass will also
likely move in for a pleasant day on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

VFR conditions and light NW winds generally 5-10 kt are expected to
continue this afternoon and evening. Winds should become light and
variable overnight, with VFR conditions likely at most terminals.
There is a chance for MVFR or lower visibilities due to patchy fog
before sunrise Monday, mainly at HNB, though confidence in this is
low given drier air mixing down this afternoon. Light winds and VFR
conditions are expected again during the day on Monday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAL
LONG TERM...CAL
AVIATION...CSG