487
FXUS63 KLMK 021924
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
224 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Light rain/drizzle will continue for a few more hours north of the
  KY Parkways, with clearing from south to north expected this
  evening.

* A short period of dry weather expected tonight into Tuesday.
  Breezy southerly winds of 10-20 mph, with gusts of 20-30 mph,
  scattered 30+ mph expected. Temperatures will also approach
  records Tuesday, with highs ranging from the mid-70s to near 80.

* A fairly strong weather system will push through the region on
  Wednesday bringing gusty rain showers and embedded thunderstorms
  to the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

This Afternoon through Tuesday Evening...

Low clouds, drizzle, and scattered light rain showers continue for
many areas north of the KY Parkways at this hour, with satellite
showing the back edge of the cool and drab weather lifting across
south central KY. Where clearing has taken place, temperatures have
quickly warmed into the low 70s. Between now and this evening,
gradual clearing is expected as dry air advects in from the south
and southeast. Where skies clear, a quick jump in temperatures from
the upper 50s and low 60s to the upper 60s to near 70 would be
expected. Drizzle and light rain should linger for a few more hours
across northern and western portions of the CWA, though these areas
should also clear by this evening.

Tonight, the clearing trend in low stratus should continue, though
scattered to broken mid- and upper-level clouds are likely to remain
into the day on Tuesday. A strengthening pressure gradient is
expected overnight as low pressure over the Plains slowly moves
toward the area. While a near-sfc stable layer should keep most of a
40-kt LLJ aloft through the night, increasing southerly flow should
keep temperatures mild, with lows in most locations only falling
into the mid-to-upper 50s. Locations along and east of US 127 would
have the best chance to fall into the low 50s Tuesday morning.

Tomorrow is expected to be an unseasonably warm and breezy day as a
broad area of deep SW flow overspreads the Ohio Valley. As low-level
lapse rates steepen with daytime heating, stronger winds aloft are
expected to mix down to the surface. From mid-morning through the
afternoon hours, expect southerly winds of 10 to 20 mph with wind
gusts of 20 to 30 mph. If we can achieve an overlap of more
sunshine/heating (better chances east of I-65) with stronger flow
aloft (west of I-65), scattered gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be
possible. Strong warm advection should send temperatures into the
mid-to-upper 70s Tuesday afternoon, with a few spots potentially
touching 80 degrees. While daily high temperature records appear
safe at SDF (82) and BWG (82), LEX (78) would have the best chance
of tying or setting a new record. Cloud cover will steadily increase
from west to east through the afternoon and evening hours, with rain
chances remaining 10 percent or less through the daytime hours.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night...

An amplified upper-level trough ejecting into the Plains this
afternoon will become cutoff over the next 24 to 36 hours, slowly
moving east toward the Upper Mississippi Valley by Wednesday
morning. As the system becomes vertically stacked, its eastward
progression is expected to slow, with a plume of strong IVT
overspreading the Tennessee and Ohio Valley Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Ensemble mean PW values are forecast to rise to
1.6-1.8" ahead of the surface cold front, exceeding the 95th
percentile of model climatology. Model soundings show deep
saturation through much of the depth of the troposphere, promoting
the development of precipitation late Tuesday night into the day on
Tuesday.

The first few cycles of hi-res guidance which extend into Wednesday
show a leading round of isolated to scattered showers around or just
after midnight Wednesday, with the main line of showers and
(potentially) embedded thunderstorms arriving a few hours before
sunrise. Given the deep saturation, most model soundings show low
amounts of instability, with ensemble MUCAPE values peaking around
200-400 J/kg within the warm sector. It is also uncertain whether or
not any surface-based instability will be realized, as soundings
show fairly poor low-level lapse rates. With strong flow aloft
expected, this lack of instability should keep the strong/severe
storm potential to a minimum, and this thinking continues to be
supported by AI/ML convective hazard guidance. Outside of the severe
storm threat, the pressure gradient should continue to support
breezy conditions through the day on Wednesday.

With the rich moisture in place, even a relatively narrow band of
moderate to heavy showers will put down beneficial rainfall amounts.
Most likely rainfall amounts range from 0.75" (southern IN) to 1.50"
(southern KY) with this forecast issuance, with high end (10%
exceedance probability) ranging from 2" in southern IN to 2.75" in
southern KY. Even these high-end amounts are below 6-hr FFG, so
nothing more than nuisance flooding is expected at this time. Rain
should start to taper from west to east early Wednesday afternoon,
with our eastern counties expected to clear by the late evening
hours.

Wednesday Night through the Weekend...

For the end of the week into the weekend, mean mid- and upper-level
troughing is expected to linger across the eastern CONUS. A couple
of reinforcing shortwave disturbances are expected to pivot around
the base of the trough, with the first one expected to move toward
the Ohio Valley Thursday night into Friday. Recent model guidance
has trended toward less moisture with this system, with
precipitation chances generally 15% or less for most of the CWA.
However, this should bring more cloud cover to the area for Friday
after what should be a mostly sunny day on Thursday. The second
disturbance to impact the area should arrive for the second half of
the weekend, with some guidance depicting a clipper-type system
which would bring more low clouds and showers, along with cooler
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1259 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

IFR and low-end MVFR ceilings are retreating into southern IN and
northern KY, and drier air streaming in from the south will continue
to lift ceilings to VFR from south to north early in the TAF period.

Winds will generally remain steady at 5-10 kts out of the southeast
through the overnight period. Southerly LLJ winds in the 1-2 kft
layer will increase to 35-40 kts late tonight ahead of a stronger
low pressure system over the Plains. Decided to introduce LLWS at
the three western terminals (HNB, BWG, and SDF), because LLWS looks
too marginal to include farther east. Southerly sfc winds are
forecast to increase to 10-15 kts on Tuesday, with gusts of 20-25
kts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CSG
AVIATION...EBW