Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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851
FXUS63 KLMK 160530
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
130 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Dry conditions are expected through the rest of the workweek with
   highs mostly in the 70s.

*  Gusty southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph and highs into the 80s on
   Saturday ahead of the approaching cold front.

*  Strong frontal boundary to move through the region late Saturday
   and into Sunday. Strong thunderstorms, with gusty winds will be
   possible during this time along with 1-2 inches of rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 425 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Tonight, as the axis of an upper ridge slides east from the Ozarks
towards the Mississippi Valley, the front of the ridge will push the
center of a surface low east over the Great Lakes. As the high
begins to pass the Lower Ohio Valley, surface winds will continue
veering from the northeast towards the east-northeast. Mid-level
winds will remain northerly, pushing scattered to broken stratus
south across Indiana into central Kentucky. As the CWA remains mixed
tonight under some cloud cover, lowers are expected to drop into the
low to mid 50s in most places, but along the eastern edge (eastern
Bluegrass region) temperatures are expected to fall into the mid to
upper 40s.

Tomorrow, the upper ridge reaches the Mississippi Valley as the
surface high reaches the middle of the Great Lakes. Winds remain
from the northeast as skies clear throughout the day. CAA will limit
highs in parts of the Bluegrass to the upper 60s while temperatures
increase to the southwest. Areas near Bowling Green are expected to
climb into the upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 425 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Friday, as the axis of the upper ridge moves east of the CWA, a
shortwave will approach the CWA from the southwest. This is expected
to bring passing cloud cover to the region, but we are expected to
remain dry. Highs on Friday range from the low 70s across the
northeastern parts of the CWA to near 80 in the southwest.

Saturday evening, an upper trough, centered over the Plains, will
quickly slide to Illinois by Sunday morning. This will quickly
strengthen a surface low just ahead of the trough. The developed
trailing cold front is expected to move east over central Illinois
and the Missouri Ozarks as is moves east towards the Lower Ohio
Valley. Southern surface flow ahead of the front will lift
precipitable water values to 1.6-1.7" with dew points climbing into
the mid to upper 60s along the area of heaviest precipitation that
is expected to move across the CWA.

The global models remain slightly slower than the current forecast
that has rain chances entering the western side of the CWA Saturday
afternoon/evening, but the NAM and some of the other regional models
have the Saturday evening arrival.

Severe weather potential currently appears fairly low, the NAM which
is usually overall aggressive is showing a few areas with MLCAPE
values with over 1,000 J/kg with plenty of deep layer and near
surface shear to get some attention, but near surface lapse rates
and surface wind direction appear to be limiting factors. Believe
it`s worth keeping an eye on, but currently not too concerned. The
time of day will also likely place a row with later in the evening
or overnight reducing severe chances.

The front will have an affect on temperatures with highs on Saturday
in the low to mid 80s falling into the 60s on Sunday.

By early Sunday night, with the front east of southern Indiana and
central Kentucky, high pressure will fill the void. Skies clear as
high temperatures reach into the mid 60s to low 70s Monday and
Tuesday. This is near normal for this time of year.

Tuesday night, another stacked low embedded in an upper trough will
bring another cold front to the Ohio Valley. The details will become
better focused with time, but currently, the GFS has some impressive
wind energy with this front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 129 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Nighttime satellite imagery shows a band of stratus with ceilings
around 4 kft gradually working from east to west across the OH
Valley early this morning. This stratus deck, currently over LEX and
RGA, is expected to filter toward SDF and HNB later this morning
before gradually scattering out by around midday. Ceilings are
expected to remain VFR within this band of clouds, and no impacts to
categories is expected during the current forecast period. We`ll
have to watch for a low chance of some brief fog at BWG and HNB
around sunrise this morning.

Otherwise, winds should again increase out of the E/NE later this
morning, generally remaining between 6-12 kt across the region today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...CSG