160
FXUS63 KLMK 161048
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
648 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Hot and humid conditions on Sunday with highs in the low/mid 90s
  and heat indices up to 109 degrees. Heat Advisory is in effect
  through 9 PM EDT/8 PM CDT for a large portion of southern IN,
  central and southern KY.

* Another round of showers and storms are possible late Sunday ahead
  of a cold front moving through the region. Any storms that become
  severe would be capable of producing damaging winds.

* A reprieve from the hot and humid weather, as well as showers and
  storms, comes Monday evening once the cold front departs to the
  south. Showers and storms arrive again for the mid and late week
  time frame, however temperatures should be slightly below normal
  for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Looking across the region this morning, multiple perturbations are
passing by just off to our north in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio,
producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. While we are
currently dry, an area of weaker showers over southern Illinois
could clip southern Indiana and far northern Kentucky during the
morning hours on Sunday. While a few rumbles of thunder cannot be
ruled out, chances for precipitation this morning for those areas
are fairly low (15-35%).

Through the middle part of the afternoon on Sunday, conditions
across the region will again be hot and humid, with a Heat Advisory
in place for the western 2/3 of the CWA that goes through 9 PM EDT/8
PM CDT. HREF probabilities for heat indices above 105 are greater
than 70% for most places west of I-65, with greater than 60% chances
for heat indices above 100 across the entire area. This will
precede a west to east oriented cold front and associated surface
low that will begin to slowly move over the region late Sunday.
Ahead of the cold front, isolated to widely scattered showers and
storms will begin to develop during the late afternoon and evening
hours. Ample moisture will be present ahead of the front, with HREF
outputting over 2" of PW. Additionally, plenty of instability will
be available (HREF mean CAPE > 2500 J/kg) for these showers and
storms. A limiting factor to how much development and how intense
these storms could get is the fact that there is meager wind shear
present (20-30 kt of deep-layer shear). The Storm Prediction Center
does have a Slight Risk for severe weather for north central
Kentucky and southern Indiana. The main concerns will be damaging
winds, heavier downpours, and frequent lightning, though confidence
remains low in more robust severe weather occurring.

For Sunday night through Monday, the cold front will slowly push
southward across the region, allowing for chances of showers and
storms to continue into the start of the workweek. This will be
amplified by an additional shortwave moving through early Monday
that develops over Nebraska and Kansas late Sunday. Chances for
strong to severe storms associated with this shortwave are rather
low, with limited instability and weak shear in place at that time.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

On Monday night, the cold front will finally push southward out of
the region. This will allow weak surface high pressure to fill in
and bring a much-needed reprieve from the uncomfortable heat and
humidity that`s been felt over the past several days. Per the most
recent LREF guidance, lows on Tuesday will be in the upper 60s north
of the Parkways and around 70 for places south. Conditions will also
be dry through early Wednesday as the surface high slowly drifts to
the east. Afternoon highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 80s, but
with dew points in the mid 60s it will feel very comfortable
outside. For Tuesday night, expect lows in the mid-to-upper 60s
across the region.

A broader pattern shift will begin to take place on Wednesday as the
upper ridge over the western CONUS begins to amplify and an upper
trough over the eastern CONUS digs southward. The southern periphery
of the upper jet will be placed over southern Indiana and central
Kentucky, acting as a pathway for multiple shortwaves to pass over
the region through the start of the weekend. The first shortwave
will move into the region Wednesday afternoon, bringing back chances
for showers and thunderstorms for the remainder of the week. While
temperatures Wednesday afternoon will be in the upper 80s/low 90s,
the repeated rounds of convective activity afterwards will keep
daytime highs in the low-to-mid 80s for the rest of the forecast
period.

While there is some uncertainty in the timing and progression, a
cold front is expected to move through the area near the end of the
forecast period (late Friday-Saturday), with surface high pressure
building in behind. This will provide an end to the repeated rounds
of showers and storms, with the convective activity pushing off to
the south and east. With northerly flow persisting behind the front,
temperatures will continue to remain mild, potentially making for a
rather comfortable weekend ahead.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 647 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals through 00z this
evening. WSW winds will steadily increase during the daytime hours
Sunday, with gusts up to 17 kt possible in the afternoon for SDF and
LEX. Chances for showers and storms will increase after 00z for all
terminals except BWG, with Prob30 groups introduced in the TAF
package. While ceilings will remain VFR, heavier downpours with any
showers and storms that develop could cause brief reductions in
visibility. Chances for showers will linger after 06z, with Prob30
groups included through 12z for all terminals except BWG.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KYZ023>031-034-038-039-045-046-053-054-061>065-070>078-
     081-082.
IN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for
     INZ076>078-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...BEN