017
FXUS63 KLMK 190637
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
237 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered showers and storms remain possible today.

* Mainly dry weather Friday through the weekend, with building heat
  and oppressive humidity continuing well into next week. Highs in
  the 90s with heat indices near 100 Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 237 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Our area is located underneath an upper level trough axis, with the
attendant cold front still to our west this morning. As the cold
front pushes east of the Wabash River later this morning, it will be
the lifting mechanism to fire off additional scattered showers and
storms across the area, mainly for the late morning and afternoon.
Ahead of the front, WAA regime will help temps warm into the 80s,
along with sfc dewpoints in the upper 60s. We`ll be able to realize
marginal destabilization this afternoon, resulting in scattered
showers and storms to pop up along the front. Wind shear will be
weak, which will help keep storms unorganized. PWATs will be less
than recent days, but some brief heavy rain rates could be possible
from any stronger storms.

The cold front will sweep through the area later in the day,
resulting in an end to precip. Clouds will clear out as well,
leading to mostly clear skycover by the evening hours. Temps will be
slightly cooler tonight due to the post-frontal airmass, with temps
expected to be in the mid 60s overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 237 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Drier weather is to be expected for Friday and into the weekend as
anomalous upper ridging will build across the central US.
Reinforcing WAA pattern and expansive sfc high pressure will support
sfc temps rising well above normal for the weekend and into early
next week, with the potential for temps to hit the 90s.

Just how hot our ambient temps get remains a bit uncertain, given
how saturated our ground is from all the recent rain, and very green
vegetation. Despite this uncertainty, the bigger story may be the
combination of well above normal temperatures and the humid airmass,
and the prolonged stretch of several days with temps pushing into
the 90s. It`s possible that after several days, we may be able to
dry out by early next week and have better chances for temps hitting
the mid 90s.

Dewpoints are forecast to return to the 70s by the weekend,
and if our temperatures are able to hit 90, that would yield heat
indices in the mid to upper 90s and approaching 100. By the middle
of next week, temps could be pushing into the mid 90s, with heat
indices over 100 being more probable for a few days in a row.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 129 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Additional showers and a few storms will be possible through the
overnight hours, with low cigs remaining overhead. We will see
steady MVFR cigs across all terminals later this morning, but only
for a short period of time. VFR will return by the late morning or
afternoon, though chances for another round of showers and storms
will be possible for the afternoon hours as a cold front passes
through the area. Precip will be more isolated to scattered, and
less intense, so currently only confident enough to use PROB30
groups to highlight the timing. Otherwise, expect all terminals to
be VFR by the evening with drier weather settling in for the end of
the forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...CJP