131
FXUS63 KLMK 291706
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
106 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Pleasant and dry weather continues through at least Tuesday with
  highs in the mid to upper 70s/low 80s and mostly clear skies.

* Temperatures will begin to warm back into the mid to upper 80s mid
  week ahead of rain chances returning late Thursday into Friday.

* A slow moving cold front will support soaking rainfall Friday
  through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 712 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Surface high pressure will continue over the Ohio Valley today
leaving mostly clear skies. Temperatures are expected to warm into
the upper 70s and low 80s across the region today. As the surface
high begins to move eastward and winds start to shift southerly,
clouds will move in from the NE. Nighttime lows are expected to be
in the mid 50s as clouds will prevent some radiational cooling. By
Wednesday afternoon, steady SSW winds return to the region bringing
warmer temperatures and moisture. Maximum temperatures for Wednesday
afternoon are expected to increase into the upper 80s across the
area.

As the surface high continues east out of the area, upper level
ridging amplifies as a low pressure system is over the Central
Plains. Return flow will keep temperatures on Thursday in the upper
80s with a 70% chance of hitting 90 degrees. Additionally moisture
advection continues into the Ohio Valley with dewpoints nearing 70.
The afore mentioned low will begin to lift into the jet stream
leaving a shortwave disturbance to move into the region. An
associated cold front will push south, becoming a lifting mechanism
for developing rain showers. As the front moves through on Friday,
rain showers are expected to be widespread through most of the day.
Severe threat still remains low as instability lacks due to the lack
of heating. After the cold front pushes through the area, another
shortwave disturbance will keep showers lingering Saturday. With
PWATS increasing above 2 inches, rainfall is expected to be heavy
with QPF ranging 2-4 inches over several days.

On the other side of things, post frontal boundary temperatures will
take a slight dip back into the 70s. Areas especially in south
central KY have the best chance of seeing upper 80s on Friday,
however the northern part of the CWA may only see max temperatures
in the upper 70s and low 80s. As cloud cover and cooler air sets in,
temperatures on Saturday will likely stay in the mid to low 70s. By
Sunday an area of high pressure will build back into the region
which will begin to clear out some cloud cover for the later half of
the weekend into the beginning of the week. The return of northerly
flow will keep daytime temperature pleasant in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the upcoming TAF period.  Sunny
skies and light winds will be seen at the terminals this afternoon
and evening.  We`ll start to see winds shift to the southeast this
evening with perhaps some thin cirrus overspreading the western
sites (BWG/HNB/SDF) late tonight.  The outlook for Wednesday calls
for continued VFR conditions.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CAL
AVIATION.....MJ