823
FXUS63 KLMK 301742
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
142 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry conditions and warmer than average temperatures will continue
  Friday. Clouds increase becoming overcast on Halloween.

* Chances for rain have increased somewhat (near 60-70%), although
  rainfall totals remain highly uncertain. High end totals of just
  under and inch in the southwest to very little in the Bluegrass is
  possible.

* A more unsettled weather pattern is expected next week, with
  our next widespread rain chance occurring on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Now through Saturday Night...

Early morning sat/obs shows clear to partly cloudy skies across the
region.  A batch of high level clouds will continue to stream across
the region this morning. A weak frontal boundary over southern
Indiana will drop southeast through the region during the day.  No
precipitation is expected with it, but we`ll see winds shift around
to the northeast during the afternoon.  Highs today will be in the
73-79 degree range with overnight lows dropping back into the upper
40s/lower 50s.

For Saturday, we`ll see continued low-level moisture advection ahead
of an approaching mid-level wave and tropical moisture with the
remnants of tropical cyclone Vance.  Our atmosphere will be quite
dry during the day but will slowly moisten during the afternoon and
evening.  Overall, Saturday will feature partly to mostly cloudy
skies with highs in the lower 70s across southern Indiana and across
north-central and east-central Kentucky. Slightly warmer highs will
be seen across southern KY with highs in the mid-upper 70s. Saturday
evening looks to remain dry with temps mainly in the low-mid 60s.  A
light showers will likely start to spread into western Kentucky
overnight with lows dipping into the mid-upper 50s.

Sunday-Tuesday Night...

Sunday will feature mostly cloudy skies with scattered rain showers
across the region.  Rainfall could be heavy at times, especially in
our western and southwestern zones.  Model QPF spread remains quite
large with the low end of a few hundreths with the top end of the
envelope near an inch.  General model consensus has the highest QPF
generally in the I-65 corridor and points west.  As the upper level
wave moves east, we`ll see shower activity diminish from west to
east.  However, low clouds and sprinkles/drizzle is likely to
continue into Sunday night and into Monday.  Highs on Sunday will be
noticeably cooler with readings in the low-mid 60s and overnight
lows in the lower 50s.  Highs may trend a little milder on Monday
with highs in the mid-upper 60s.  By Tuesday, stronger southwest
flow ahead of a stronger mid-level wave coming across the Plains
will help boost temps up a bit.  Mid-upper 70s look likely here,
though the models may under-estimate highs in this warm advection
pattern.

Wednesday through Friday...

By mid-week, attention will turn to a large mid-level wave heading
eastward through the central Plains.  This feature looks to arrive
in our region by late Wednesday brining another round of moderate to
occasionally heavy rainfall and possible thunderstorms to the
region.  This wave will be slow moving as it is cut off from the
faster flow that will be to the north, so unsettled weather is
likely to continue into Thursday as well.  This wave may undergo
further amplification and may cut off over the Mid-Atlantic/southern
NE US toward the end of the week.  Wrap around moisture may keep our
eastern zones a bit more cloudy even into Friday.

Highs on Wednesday will generally be in the upper 60s to the very
low 70s with overnight lows dropping into the upper 40s/lower 50s.
Cooler temps look likely for Thursday and Friday with highs in the
mid-upper 60s with overnight lows in the upper 30s/lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the period. NE winds of 5-10
kts will veer from the east by Saturday morning. FEW-SCT thin high
clouds will be present this afternoon, with cloud cover steadily
increasing after 00Z Saturday. Expect OVC ceilings near 20 kft on
Saturday, with mid-level ceilings expected to gradually lower after
18Z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...EBW