093
FXUS63 KLMK 011548
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1148 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

...Forecast Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated daytime shower and thunderstorm chances return across
  southern KY for Labor Day, and then all other locations through
  mid to late week.

* Best chance for .5" to 1" of rainfall will be across southern and
  eastern KY.

* A strong front will bring another shot of cool and dry air to the
  region late week through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

The forecast is good shape so far this morning. Watching an area of
slow moving outflow near the Lake Cumberland region that is
emanating from a cluster of showers of the Cumberland Plateau in TN.
Inverted surface trough is expected to sharpen through the afternoon
with modest instability (500-1000 J/KG of ML CAPE) developing.
Current pops look good, but will be monitoring for any need to
expand northward based on exactly where the surface moisture
convergence maximizes along the surface trough.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 403 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Today, an inverted surface trough extending northeast through the
CWA is expected to result in scattered precipitation across southern
Kentucky where precipitable water values surge to only 1-1.25". On
top of that, instability and shear values are low and weak. With high
LCLs and very dry low levels, it may be difficult to get much to
develop, so thunderstorms aren`t looking too likely. The rest of the
CWA farther north will remain dry. High temperatures are expected to
reach into the low to mid 80s.

Tonight, northwest flow remains in place over the inverted trough at
the surface. Skies across the northern half of the CWA will see
scattered clouds with some clearing as showers fade early in the
night over southern Kentucky, but during the second half of the
night until sunrise, cloud cover and rain chances begin increasing
again. Not expecting high rainfall amounts for any place that does
see rain, but it could be enough to cause some patchy fog. Low
temperatures are expected to drop into the low 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 403 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Tuesday through Thursday continues to look much more active
than the last couple of weeks. Continued northwest flow will push a
shortwave southeast from the Midwest into the Lower Ohio Valley on
Tuesday. This along with the stationary inverted surface trough will
allow for better chances for somewhat widespread scattered showers.
The best chances for precipitation remain south of the Ohio River as
the shortwave may have trended slightly farther south. With
additional waves coming in on the northwest flow, scattered
precipitation chances remain in place on Wednesday, and by Thursday,
a cold front is looking more likely to bring additional widespread
showers to the area. This will also bring an end to the precipitation
by Thursday night. Overall, the best chances and highest rainfall
totals for the three days is expected to be over the southeastern
parts of the CWA with lower values tapering off to the northwest.

The GFS and Euro, now have a second reinforcing cold front arriving
sometime Friday or Saturday. The Euro solution is the slower one,
brining additional rain chances, but would like to see better
agreement in multiple runs before believing.

Currently, the weekend into early next week looks sunny and dry as
high pressure moves into the area behind the front/fronts. High
temperatures return to the 70s and low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 713 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

VFR conditions are expected to remain through the forecast
period. Northeast to east winds will increase slightly over the next
few hours and remain light through the period. Skies are mostly
clear, but high level clouds will continue to stream to the
southeast.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...KDW