580
FXUS63 KLMK 040329
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1029 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Widespread rainfall tonight into Wednesday will benefit the
  ongoing drought. Amounts of 1 to 2 inches will be most common,
  though a few locations (10% chance) may see totals surpass
  3 inches. The risk of flooding is low.

* The risk for severe weather is low, though brief and localized
  gusty winds exceeding 40 mph may (20-30% chance) accompany showers
  tonight into tomorrow.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1029 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Conditions remain dry, breezy, and cloudy this evening. A band of
rain showers is crossing the Mid-MS River Valley this evening, with
moderate rain now falling across far western KY. These rain showers
will work east across southern IN and central KY late tonight
through Wednesday morning, before tapering off from west to east
Wednesday afternoon. Prior to the arrival of the main swath of
precip, scattered light to moderate showers will blossom in coverage
over the next few hours as a 40-50 kt LLJ strengthens overhead.
Anomalously strong low-level moisture transport is already underway
and is forecast to continue through Wednesday morning. A plume of >
1.6 inch PW will extend across the area from roughly 1 AM to 1 PM
Wednesday.

Overall, the risk for severe weather remains rather low. However,
recent mesoanalysis trends and hi-res ensemble data support the idea
of a narrow plume of 100-250 J/kg SBCAPE stretching into central KY
through the early to mid-morning hours. Given the magnitude of the
low-level jet and the presence of backed SSE sfc flow and 0-1 km SRH
on the order of 200-300 m2/s2, cannot totally rule out isolated wind
damage or a very brief spinup. And any robust shower will be capable
of mixing down strong 30-40+ mph gusts.

In terms of rainfall, a fairly widespread 1-2 inches still looks
likely, with perhaps a bit less than 1 inch near the I-75 corridor
in our eastern CWA. Localized amounts of 3+ inches still look
possible, with the greatest signal for this across portions of west-
central and south-central KY. Storm drains clogged by leaves could
produce some localized flooding issues, but widespread or
significant flooding is not likely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Now - Wednesday Night...

Mild and gusty this afternoon with temperatures approaching record
highs in the upper 70s and low 80s as we speak. Gusts have mostly
been in the 20-30 mph range, and will start to slacken by late
afternoon. Otherwise, look for increasing mid and upper sky cover,
but conditions will stay dry through sunset.

Records:

SDF - 82 (2003)
LEX - 78 (2024)
BWG - 82 (1974)

As we move through tonight, expect intense low level jetting to
increase up around 50-60 knots beneath the right entrance region of
strong mid to upper level jetting (70+ knots). Meanwhile, a surface
cold front will approach the lower Ohio/Wabash River Valleys by dawn
on Wednesday. This will provide the setup for widespread rainfall
later tonight into Wednesday as forcing from the dynamics mentioned
above combine with high PWATs (1.6 - 1.7"). It is worth noting that
the low level jet fetch does appear to tap into an Atlantic and Gulf
moisture feed in addition to the deep moisture already associated
with this system. Precipitation has trended with an earlier start
time tonight (likely some scattered showers before Midnight EST),
likely due to that combined moisture fetch from the western
Atlantic/eastern Gulf initially before the main plume arrives a bit
later.

Although the widespread rainfall will be beneficial to ongoing
drought conditions, especially southern KY where D1-D2 is currently
observed. There are going to be a couple of concerns as we navigate
the system later tonight through much of the daylight hours on
Wednesday. Recent model runs have trended more aggressive with
overall rainfall totals as a few hundred J/KG of MUCAPE allows for
some convective elements in the presence of high PWATs. Previous
discussion mentioned a seasonably deep warm cloud layer combined
with some training potential could lead to localized high amounts.
We`re seeing this in the CAM data has the latest runs of the REFs
suggest localized amounts over 4" on the 48 hour PMM data. This may
very well be weighted a bit too heavy from the FV3 and WRF ARW, but
also can`t rule it out given that NBM probabilities of > 4" through
tomorrow have risen to around 10%, and probabilities over 3" are
about 20-30% across south central KY. Given all this for
consideration, like the messaging of a widespread 1 to 2", with
localized amounts of 3-4" possible. For the most part, we should be
able to handle these amounts, however the higher end could cause a
few localized issues, especially in urban areas. The good news is
that the signal for the highest totals does seem to line out with
the worst current drought conditions.

The overall shear profile later tonight into Wednesday is quite
impressive given the strong low level jet, and somewhat backed
surface winds. The good news is that any surface or near-surface
based instability looks to be pretty much non-existent. This will
mostly mitigate the threat for any of the higher momentum air aloft
to make it down to the surface with stronger showers/storms. That
being said, can`t completely rule out a few stronger gusts over 40
mph possible early Wednesday through the afternoon. REFS probs of
500 J/KG of SB CAPE do show a few pixels of 5-10% over southern KY
tomorrow afternoon ahead of the front, so something we`ll have to
watch. SPC did bring a 2% Tor threat up to our SW CWA border, and
could see a sliver of this threat extending into south central KY
into Wed, but not sure the threat is even that high. Will call it
non-zero for a brief spin-up, but not likely at all given the low
level thermodynamic profile evident on soundings.

Thursday - Tuesday...

General troughing will continue to hold over the region through the
late week time frame, ending with a closed upper low slowly exiting
the eastern Great Lakes into the weekend. Expect this to be mostly
dry stretch with the bulk of the data keeping the deeper moisture
far enough north that we stay dry. Do expect some increases in cloud
cover, especially as the trough axis and weak frontal boundary
passes Friday.

Temperatures are expected to trend downward Thursday through
Saturday with successive reinforcing (but dry) cool fronts. Highs in
the upper 60s to around 70 on Thursday will give way to highs only
in the 55 to 60 degree range by Saturday. Thursday night lows look
to be in the 40s with Friday night lows more into the 30s to around
40. Some frost is likely for early Saturday morning. Same as we
trended downward with temps through Saturday, they will then trend
steadily warmer Sunday through Tuesday, ending up back in the mid
60s by early to middle next week.

This should also continue to be a dry stretch of weather as
unremarkable NW flow aloft and high pressure at the surface control
the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 718 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

VFR conditions and breezy SE winds to begin this TAF period.
However, expect deteriorating conditions after 04Z Wed with the
arrival of rain showers and a strengthening 40-50 kt low-level jet.


A band of rain showers will work east across all five terminals
between 04-09Z tonight, and scattered rain showers will be possible
out ahead of the primary band. In addition, a developing 40-50 kt
LLJ overhead will produce LLWS overnight into Wednesday morning.
Between 09-17Z, expect low-end MVFR ceilings to envelope the region
from west to east. Brief IFR/MVFR vsbys will also be possible in
heavier rain showers. Cannot totally rule out an isolated rumble of
thunder, either, but have kept the mention of TSRA to just BWG at
this time. Low ceilings and steady to occasionally gusty SW winds
will continue through the end of the TAF period, but with some
improvements in ceilings by late Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EBW
DISCUSSION...BJS
AVIATION...EBW