092
FXUS63 KLMK 021759
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1259 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Light rain/drizzle continues early this morning with low stratus
  cloud lingering through the morning hours.  Some partial clearing
  will be possible this afternoon.

* Short period of dry weather expected for later today and into the
  day on Tuesday.  Tuesday will be warm and breezy.

* Fairly strong weather system will push through the region on
  Wednesday bringing gusty rain showers to the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Today through Tuesday...

Early morning observations reveal cloudy skies with temperatures in
the low-mid 50s.  Areas of drizzle and light rain continue across
the region as a mid-level wave slowly works northeast across the
region.  Through sunrise, expect low clouds and drizzle/light rain
continuing.  Lows for the overnight period will likely be in the
lower 50s.

For today, aforementioned mid-level wave will continue to move off
to the northeast.  Light rain and drizzle will likely linger into
the mid-morning hours before diminishing around lunchtime.  Cloud
cover will limit temps north of the I-64 corridor with readings in
the low-mid 60s.  Some partial clearing will work into southern KY
where temps along/south of the WK/BG Parkways will likely warm into
the upper 60s/lower 70s.  Dry conditions are expected overnight with
lows around 50 in the I-75 corridor.  Elsewhere, mid-upper 50s are
expected.

Moving into Tuesday, dry weather is expected to continue across the
region.  Mid-level heights will build across the region in advance
of a larger upper level trough that will approach the area from the
west.  A tightening surface pressure gradient will be noted and
breezy southwest winds are expected to push temperatures into the
mid-upper 70s.  Given the strong warm advection scheme, it is
possible that the models may underdo temps a bit, so a few spots
could touch 80 and Lexington continues to have a chance to break a
record high (77F).  Winds may gust to 25-30 mph at times Tuesday
afternoon.

Tuesday night through Sunday...

Heading into Tuesday night and Wednesday, a large upper level low
and associated trough axis will roll eastward across the Plains and
into the Midwest/Ohio Valley.  Associated with this trough, a nearly
north-south oriented surface cold front will plow eastward across
Kentucky Wednesday morning.  Ahead of the front, a fairly strong low-
level jet axis will strengthen to around 55-60kts and bring a fair
amount of moisture into the region.  Model soundings show PWATs
greater than 1.75 inches which is well above climatological norms
for early November.  A band of moderate to heavy rain showers will
accompany the front as it slides through the region.  While ample
shear will be in place across the region, the early arrival of the
front in the daytime, combined with plentiful cloud cover will
result in very limited instability.  In terms of sensible weather,
Wednesday will be a dreary, breezy, and rainy day with precipitation
ending by Wednesday night.  Highs on the day will be in the upper
60s to around 70.  Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches will be possible
as this weather feature moves through. Cooler air will filter in
Wednesday night with lows falling into the upper 40s west of I-65,
and lower 50s elsewhere.

For Thursday, the upper low will move from the Midwest into the
Great Lakes and much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley will be in the
mid-level dry slot that should keep us precipitation free.  Highs
will be a little cooler with readings in the upper 60s and lows in
the low-mid 40s.  Another upper wave will pivot through the region
on Friday, though moisture may be rather scant here and the wave may
just bring more cloud cover than anything else.  We`ll be in between
weather systems on Saturday with dry conditions and highs in the
lower 60s.  Another compact upper low will dive southeast out of the
Midwest on Sunday and may bring some rain showers to the area toward
the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1259 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

IFR and low-end MVFR ceilings are retreating into southern IN and
northern KY, and drier air streaming in from the south will continue
to lift ceilings to VFR from south to north early in the TAF period.

Winds will generally remain steady at 5-10 kts out of the southeast
through the overnight period. Southerly LLJ winds in the 1-2 kft
layer will increase to 35-40 kts late tonight ahead of a stronger
low pressure system over the Plains. Decided to introduce LLWS at
the three western terminals (HNB, BWG, and SDF), because LLWS looks
too marginal to include farther east. Southerly sfc winds are
forecast to increase to 10-15 kts on Tuesday, with gusts of 20-25
kts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...EBW