435
FXUS63 KLMK 101049
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
649 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Another pleasant day in store for today, with temperatures in the
   low to mid-70s. However, we will see increasing high-level clouds
   by this afternoon and evening.

*  Dry conditions are expected through the weekend with highs in the
   low to mid 70s.

*  Gradual warming trend continues early next week, possibly seeing
   highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s for Mon-Tue. Dry weather is
   also expected throughout next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

It`s the coolest morning of the fall season so far, with KY Mesonet
obs reporting temps ranging in the 40s this morning. With clear
skycover and calm winds, still expect radiational cooling will lead
to some scattered upper 30s when we reach our diurnal min before
sunrise. Best chances for that will be across southern IN and north-
central KY, which could result in some patchy frost given very light
winds by that time.

Upper level ridging is centered over the Plains today, with an upper
shortwave expected to deepen into a closed low over the Great Lakes
by tonight. To our southeast, another shortwave will likely deepen
into an upper low over GA/FL today. This leaves our area sort of in
between all these different upper level features. This will actually
lead to a pleasant day across the area, with temps peaking in the
low to mid 70s this afternoon. Winds will be less than the past few
days now that the pressure gradient has relaxed. Scattered high
level clouds will stream over the area beginning this afternoon as
some moisture out ahead of the deepening Great Lakes low spreads
across the Ohio Valley.

For tonight, we will continue to see clouds stream across the
region, but a dry forecast will remain in place. A weak sfc cold
front will be trailing the attendant sfc low over the Great Lakes,
and will be passing through central IN/IL/MO tonight, and remain
north of the Ohio River in the short term. Temps overnight will
respond to the expected additional cloud cover, with upper 40s to
low 50s forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

====== This Weekend ======

The upper level flow on Saturday will feature double upper lows
embedded in the upper trough structure east of the Mississippi
River, and ridging building across the central US. One upper low
will be located over the southeast US, though the more potent low
will be centered over the Great Lakes. A weak cold front will be
diving south through the Ohio Valley on Saturday, and we`ll likely
see some additional cloud cover from it, but that may be it. This
front will lack substantial moisture by the time it gets this far
south, so no measurable precip is currently expected. Temps on
Saturday look to hit the low 70s, which is right where they should
be for this time of year. The weak front may push through our area
by Saturday evening, which will lead to clearing skycover and temps
in the 40s for the overnight.

The upper ridge builds into the Ohio Valley on Sunday, with deep
north flow continuing to bring dry air into the region. Little to no
cloud cover is expected for Sunday, with temps in the low to mid
70s. Can`t ask for a better day weather-wise, so enjoy it if you
can.

====== Next Week ======

Upper level ridging continues into next week across the central US,
which will keep a dry spell across the Ohio Valley. The two upper
lows will combine into one fairly nasty coastal low that will take a
Nor`easter-like track up the Eastern Seaboard. With another
amplified upper trough deepening over the West Coast, the upper
pattern will take on a low-amplitude omega pattern by mid-week.
Temps across the area for Monday and Tuesday should at least be in
the mid-70s, though can`t rule out some upper-70s that may be
approaching close to 80.

Canadian sfc high will move across the Great Lakes beginning on
Wednesday, which will filter in some cooler air for the second half
of the week. Low to mid-70s are expected for Wed-Fri time frame.
With the sfc high eventually spreading across our region, dry
weather will continue through the rest of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 649 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

There is some patchy fog out there this morning mostly in the
valleys, but has been persistent at HNB the last few hours. Expect
vis improvements for there around sunrise. VFR conditions are
expected throughout the daylight hours, though increasing high level
clouds from the northwest will take place later today. Otherwise,
winds will be lighter today with a general SW direction, but could
be light enough to be variable at times. VFR continues tonight with
light and variable winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...CJP