559
FXUS63 KLMK 290511
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
111 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry weather continues for the weekend and into next week.
  Temperatures begin to increase over the weekend and especially
  into next week, with low to mid-90s possible.

* A few shower and storm chances may return by late week, but
  current confidence is low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

We have developed a pretty healthy cu field this afternoon, however
there is a notable inversion at H7 that will limit any deep
convective growth. That being said, there is a several thousand foot
layer of instability between the LFC and the inversion where some
vertical depth is occurring. Can`t rule out a very brief sprinkle or
very light shower out of one of these, although T/Td depressions are
quite large and will probably evaporate most precip. Some of the 12z
guidance does show a few blips of QPF across the area, and this is
likely the culprit of that output.

Otherwise, high pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes will
continue to expand influence into our region through the weekend.
This will leave us with dry conditions and temperatures near normal
for this time of year. We will have some diurnal cu each afternoon
and evening, and likely a patchy valley fog presence as well. Dew
points during this stretch will also be relatively comfortable for
this time of year, and generally be confined to the low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Sunday - Wednesday...

Upper ridging builds from the central CONUS to the eastern CONUS
from late weekend through the middle of next week. This will lead to
a more prolonged period of dry weather compared to what we have seen
most of this summer. In addition, temperatures will be on the
increase, especially as we get into next week. Forecast soundings
don`t necessarily show much of a cap, however they do show pretty
dry low levels with abnormally high LCL/LFC heights, and with the
lack of any triggers outside of diurnal heating it does look like we
stay largely dry. Could we pop a stray shower or brief storm one
afternoon due to the lack of a cap? Sure, but coverage/confidence
are way too low to carry any mention at this time.

The bigger issue will be temperatures steadily heating up
thanks to the building ridge. Highs are expected mostly in the
low 90s on Sunday, and then will give way to readings in the low
and mid 90s at least through Wednesday. Dew points are mostly
expected to be in the upper 60s and low 70s through this period,
and while that will be muggy, it won`t be to the extent as some
of the earlier stretches of heat and humidity we saw this
summer. As a result, max heat indices are largely expected to
stay in the 90s on Sunday and Monday, with values more likely to
reach into the low 100s by Tuesday and Wednesday. It is
possible we could flirt with some Heat Advisory headlines by
this time, but that would be mainly along or west of I- 65.

Thursday - Friday...

There is lower confidence through the late week time frame whether
or not the upper ridge will remain in place over our region, or
whether it will retrograde back to the west and allow for the
stronger NW flow aloft to regain dominance over our upper pattern.
This will ultimately decide whether we stay in the increasingly hot
and mostly dry pattern, or whether we get into a more active pattern
with convection. The latter scenario would likely result in some
slightly lower temperatures, but also would come with higher storm
chances. For now, will continue with a blend of those two scenarios
where temperatures still stay pretty warm/muggy, but also with some
scattered shower and storm chances each day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 111 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Mostly clear skycover this morning as high pressure dominates the
region. Some patchy fog could be possible before sunrise, but
generally expect VFR conditions through the morning. VFR continues
the rest of today with light E winds and diurnal cu development.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...CJP