052
FXUS63 KLMK 112342
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
742 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Dry conditions are expected through the rest of the workweek with
   highs mostly in the 70s.

*  The next chance of rain arrives next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 415 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Behind a slow moving weak cold front dropping south through central
Kentucky, a broken deck of cloud cover remains along and north of
Interstate 64. This line of clouds is expected to dissipate with
time in otherwise clear skies. With surface high pressure centered
north of the Great Lakes, north-northeast to northeast winds over
the CWA continue to be light.

Tonight, the positively tilted upper ridge stretching over the Ohio
Valley will continue to keep skies clear as winds ease. Temperatures
will fall into the low 40s to low 50s with Louisville expected to be
the only spot remaining in the 50s.

Sunday, more of the same. The surface high gets pushed farther east
just north of Maine as the upper ridge remains in place. Continued
light cold air advection keeps highs in the 70s under clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 415 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

To start the new week, very little changes in the overall pattern.
The positively tilted upper ridge extending from an upper high over
Texas remains in place over the CWA as the surface high near Maine
drifts just east of New Brunswick. Light cold air advection keeps
highs mostly in the mid to upper 70s on Monday before some low 80s
begin entering some of our western counties. Lows inch slightly
warmer into the mid 40s to mid 50s by Monday night.

On Tuesday, the upper ridge begins to expand, covering the Plains
and pushing farther east over the Ohio Valley. At the same time, a
new stacked low moves east across northern Ontario, bringing another
dry cold front to southern Indiana and central Kentucky. As the
center of the surface high, behind the front, moves east across
Canada under the upper ridge, CAA keeps flowing into the CWA. Skies
remain mostly clear.

By Thursday night into Friday, as the surface high passes off to the
east, return flow begins to lift temperatures and moisture levels by
the weekend. Rain shower chances begin increasing from the west
ahead of the next frontal system. The GFS remains quicker bring the
precipitation in on Saturday while the Euro waits until Sunday, but
overall, they paint the same picture.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 741 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Mostly VFR conditions expected, with the exception of possible early
morning fog at HNB, BWG, and RGA. SCT clouds near 6 kft over
southern IN and northern KY are forecast to dissipate quickly late
this evening. We`ll also have some SCT thin cirrus stream north over
the I-75 corridor tonight. Fog development is lower confidence, but
at least some MVFR fog looks possible at the three sites mentioned
between 08-12Z Sunday. Otherwise, VFR likely with light NE winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...EBW