186
FXUS63 KLMK 022346
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
646 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Areas of freezing fog possible tonight into Wednesday morning,
  which could result in slick spots on roads and elevated surfaces.

* Cold Wednesday, with morning lows in the upper teens to lower 20s.

* Cold, dry weather likely this afternoon through Wednesday. There
  is a slight chance for brief light snow or flurries Thursday
  morning across southern IN and northern KY. No accumulation.

* There is a chance for light wintry precipitation on Friday,
  especially across the southeastern half of Kentucky.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Conditions are cold and cloudy this afternoon, with a blanket of low
stratus lingering over the OH Valley. An upper level trough axis
quickly swings off to the east this evening as sfc high pressure
builds in from the west. The low clouds appear likely to linger
through the evening hours, with only partial clearing from west to
east across KY overnight. The eastern portion of the forecast area
has a better chance of seeing the stratus linger through the
overnight period as well.

Partial clearing will likely allow some fog to develop tonight,
especially with the sfc high moving overnight and lingering low
moisture/fresh snowpack. Dense freezing fog could cause some issues
in spots. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the mid teens to
lower 20s early Wednesday morning. Any pockets of dense fog could
result in slick spots, especially on untreated/elevated surfaces.

Low clouds and fog will gradually mix out Wednesday morning, with
mostly sunny skies the rest of the day. Temperatures will rebound
into the mid 30s to lower 40s for most of the area, with mid 40s
possible in the Lake Cumberland region.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

===== Wednesday Night - Thursday =====

Progressive, zonal flow aloft appears likely to remain in place
Wednesday night into the weekend. On the heels of the Wednesday high
pressure system, a Canadian low pressure system will drag a cold
front southeast through the area Thursday morning. Moisture is
lacking along this front, but there is a slight chance for brief
light snow or flurries across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky. Accumulation is not expected. Much of Thursday will be
dry and chilly, with morning lows in the 20s and afternoon
highs in the 30s.


===== Friday - Weekend =====

Upper level shortwave energy streaming ENE from the southern Plains
may again induce a weak area of sfc low pressure along the Gulf
Coast Thursday night through Friday night. Overall, this looks like
a flatter system with weaker forcing and more of the moisture
suppressed to our south. There is a low-end chance for some light
wintry precipitation, with the best chance across southern and
southeastern KY.

Yet another, potentially stronger, upper level trough could try to
develop off to our west over the weekend. However, forecast
confidence is lower by the weekend. Increasing model spread makes it
impossible to try to pin down any specific time periods for
precipitation. Again, it`s a fairly progressive flow pattern which
could bring periodic precip chances every couple days or so. Highs
look to range through the 30s and 40s, with lows in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 646 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Wind is going to go near calm tonight. The main focus will be with
low level moisture causing low ceilings and possibly some icing and
visibility restrictions. Currently, don`t believe visibilities are
going to fall below VFR. MVFR would be most likely at RGA and LEX.
Ceilings are expected to improve back to VFR levels during the
early afternoon hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...KDW