887
FXUS63 KLMK 161116
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
716 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Heat Advisory is in effect through Thursday.

* Unseasonably hot temperatures continue.

* Low (20-30%) rain chances returns late in the workweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 342 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

An upper high remains over the Mid-Mississippi Valley, including
over the Lower Ohio Valley. In the zonal flow on the northern side
of the high, a cold front cuts through central Indiana. At the
surface, a high sits off the New England Coast and extends southwest
into the Southeast. This is directing southern flow with warm moist
air from the Gulf into the Ohio Valley. With continued highs in the
mid 90s with dew points in the low to mid 70s, heat indices are
expected to reach to near 105 degrees today, and with little chance
in the overall pattern, expecting about the same for Thursday. Had
to bump dew points up a degree to get guidance to better match
yesterday`s heat indices and current values.

The CAMs continue to point to increased chances for isolated showers
and thunderstorms south of the front, mainly across southern Indiana
into the Bluegrass region. Still think most areas will remain mostly
sunny with dry conditions being dominant, but a quick showers can`t
be ruled out.

Wednesday night will see winds ease under mostly clear skies, but
light WAA will likely keep lows in the low to mid 70s. The low 60s
are "normal" lows for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 342 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Thursday night into Friday, we begin to see the upper high slide
west towards Texas, pushing the ridge above it north through the
eastern Plains and Midwest. Northwest flow, ahead of the ridge, will
push a surface high through the Great Lakes region behind a cold
front trying to work its way south through the CWA, which could
bring northeast winds to southern Indiana and central Kentucky. This
will likely increase rain chances to 20-30 percent. Models have been
consistent with this feature for several days, so believe it could
provide some bust potential with extending the heat advisory into
Friday and/or Saturday.

With that said, by Saturday, the front is expected to begin moving
back north as a warm front. WAA keeps high temperatures in the low
to mid 90s through the weekend before upper 80s return on Monday for
some. There is a general trend in precipitation chances increasing
to 20-40 percent during the beginning to middle of next week as
different waves work through the messy zonal pattern, but consensus
is weak.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 716 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the forecast period.
Winds out of the south will begin to veer towards the southwest
before backing towards the south again this evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Thursday for
     KYZ023>034-038-045-046-053-054-061>065-070>077-081.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Thursday for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...KDW