386
FXUS63 KLMK 251807
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
207 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Heat Advisory continues until this evening due to multiple days of
  heat indices near 100 to 105 and heat indices only falling into
  the mid to upper 70s at night.

* Increasing chances of scattered to isolated showers and storms
  during peak heating could produce gusty winds, heavy rain and
  lightning though the end of the week and into the weekend.

* Cold front next week brings relief from the heat with cooler
  temperatures in the 80s along with showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

The unrelenting pattern continues for the middle of the week. It will
be another hot and humid day with the chance of isolated showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon as the strong and broad 594-596 dam
ridge continues to sit over the Ohio Valley. Dew points will once
again be in the low/mid 70s as afternoon high temperatures reach the
low/mid 90s resulting in another day of heat index values over 100
to around 105. Because of this the Heat Advisory continues another
day into this evening.

Scattered to isolated diurnal showers and storms could develop again
later today as the heat and humidity destabilizes the atmosphere.
The best chance for showers and storms looks to be into southern IN
with just isolated chances further south. While not severe, some
storms could be strong with gusty winds and heavy rainfall and
lightning. Like the last few days, activity will diminish after
sunset with the loss of daytime heating.

Tonight, any remaining showers/thunderstorms will come to an end
with the loss of diurnal warming, and even with light winds and
clearing skies, temperatures are only expected to fall into the 70s.
This will also lead to patchy fog across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

The strong ridge is expected to break down and flatten out as we go
into the end into the weekend. While we will remain very warm and
humid, we will ease up a bit on the high heat index values. While
the Heat Advisory is expected to expire later this evening, it is
possible it could be extended into Thursday as forecast does show
areas seeing another day of near or slightly over 100 degree heat
index values. High temperatures for the end of the week and into the
weekend are a bit cooler in the low 90s to upper 80s with dew points
remaining in the low/mid 70s. Heat index values will be lower than
the last few days in the mid/upper 90s with just the occasional 100
degree value.

Scattered to isolated diurnal showers and storms will continue
through the end of the week and into the weekend. The upper flow
become more zonal into the weekend as the ridge breaks down. A weak
shortwave will pass to our north on Saturday. PWAT values ahead of
this feature surge to around 2" and with scattered showers and
storms possible, we could see period of locally heavy rainfall with
any showers and storms.

Relief from the heat may be in the forecast for early next week.
Models continue to indicate a front working through the region
allowing for cooler air work in for the middle of next week. Highs
look to be in the mid/upper 80s Tuesday and Wednesday and dew point
values below 70 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. There is a
possibility for some fog again tonight, but guidance the last couple
of days has been way more bullish than what materialized. There is
also a chance for isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening, but chances at any one location remain too
low to include in the TAFs.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...KDW