448
FXUS63 KLMK 041116
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
716 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Dry and sunny weather continue through the weekend.

*  Rain chances increase early next week ahead of a cold front
   arriving on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 338 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

The upper ridge has now pushed eastward, covering the eastern US,
while an upper trough with a closed low sits centered just west of
the Rockies. Surface high pressure is now centered over the
Appalachians and stretches west into the Lower Ohio Valley. This
continues to keep quiet weather in place. Things are so quiet with
calm winds and clear skies that this morning is going to begin with
some patchy fog over much of southern Indiana and central Kentucky,
but after the fog clears early in the day, everyone is expected to
see mostly sunny skies with temperatures climbing into the low to
mid 80s.

Tonight, the upper ridge remains overhead, but with the upper trough
and surface low advancing closer to the CWA, southeast winds are
expected to remain 3-5 mph. This along with drier conditions should
help to limit fog under clear skies. Lows should fall into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 338 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Sunday will be the last day to enjoy the upper ridge and surface
high pressure keeping dry conditions over the Lower Ohio Valley.
Mostly sunny skies will lead to highs in the low to mid 80s.

Monday through Wednesday, guidance continues to slide the upper
ridge east off the coast of Maine with the axis of a trailing upper
trough off the coast of California. At the surface, the high will
sit off the Atlantic Coast, funneling moisture northwest over the
Southeast towards the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys ahead of an
approaching cold front. Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances
along and west of Interstate 65 on Monday will begin to spread east
over the whole CWA on Tuesday. Precipitation will begin tapering off
to the southeast early Wednesday as the cold front pushes through to
the southeast. Ahead of the front, high temperatures are expected to
be in the upper 70s to mid 80s on Monday, mid 70s to low 80s on
Tuesday, but by Wednesday, highs only reach into the upper 60s in
southeast Indiana and northern Kentucky to the upper 70s near
Bowling Green.

Thursday into the weekend, cold air advection ahead of a passing
surface high dropping southeast through the Great Lakes will keep
the upper 60s to mid 70s around for Thursday under mostly sunny
skies, but as the high passes, weak warm air advection arrives on
Friday, lifting temperatures to the low to upper 70s on Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 715 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Widespread fog is over most of southern Indiana and central Kentucky
this morning. The affected TAF sites, BWG and HNB, have seen
visibilities bouncing between VFR and IFR levels. The fog will
likely get worst this morning before it clears. After that, VFR
conditions are expected through the rest of the period. Winds will
continue to be light under mostly clear skies.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...KDW