661
FXUS63 KLMK 021940
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
340 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Slow moving cold front continues sliding southeast through the
   region. Rain shower chances remain for some into the day
   tomorrow.

*  Early next week, clear skies and cooler temperatures return with
   low temperatures in some areas dropping into the upper 30s to low
   40s Monday and Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

The cold front is now sitting over central Kentucky as it continues
to the southeast. Winds are fairly light ahead of the front with 5
to 10 mph winds generally out of the north behind it. This is
dropping temperatures into the mid to upper 60s across southern
Indiana and near the Ohio River in central Kentucky. The earlier low
level jet has moved out of the area to the northeast as 2 inch peak
precipitable water values along the front are beginning to drop off
and retreat to the south. This trend is expected to continue through
the evening, reducing rainfall rates over central Kentucky.

Tonight, the heaviest rain will stay closer to the higher moisture,
precipitable water values in the 1.8 to 2 inch range, and slide east
across southern Kentucky. Areas farther to the north will see
lighter more scattered showers. Most of the rain will move off to
the east by sunrise Saturday morning with lows in the low 50s in
southern Indiana to low to mid 60s in far southern Kentucky.

Through the day Saturday, a few isolated showers are expected to
drift northeast through the Lake Cumberland area, but all other
areas in the CWA are expected to remain dry with mostly sunny skies
expected over the northern two thirds of the CWA. Surface high
pressure centered over the Great Lakes will keep east-northeast
winds in place as most places see the low to mid 70s for highs.
There will likely be a few places that only see the upper 60s
towards eastern Kentucky.

Saturday night, clear skies, light winds, and moisture from today
will likely lead to patchy fog as radiative cooling drops
temperatures towards dew points.

Sunday, stubborn cloud cover is expected to remain along and south
of the parkways during the day, but as we head into the overnight
period, a dry cold front will get pushed southeast towards the Lower
Ohio Valley by northwest upper flow. This will clear skies and bring
another round of light CAA ahead of another surface high behind the
front, keeping highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s for Monday and
Tuesday. Monday and Tuesday night, some low temperatures could drop
into the upper 30s to low 40s before the high pushes east through
the Great Lakes, returning WAA. Highs get lifted into the upper 70s
to low 80s on Wednesday before inching slightly warmer for the end
of the workweek.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

As a cold front slowly moves southeast across central Kentucky rain
showers will continue to impact area TAF sites. Winds across
southern Indiana and far north central Kentucky are already out of
the north behind the front. LEX, RGA, and BWG will see their wind
shift towards the north as the front passes. Periods of heavier
rainfall are dropping visibilities into MVFR ranges, but the greater
impacts will come from IFR ceilings expected at all TAF sites.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KDW
AVIATION...KDW