420
FXUS63 KLMK 300056
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
856 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry weather continues for the weekend and into next week.
  Temperatures begin to increase over the weekend and especially
  into next week, with low to mid-90s possible.

* Major Heat Risk possible next week due to the multi-day duration
  of hot temperatures and little overnight relief. Anyone without
  effective cooling or adequate hydration will be susceptible to
  heat illness.

* A few shower and storm chances may return by late week, but
  current confidence is low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 856 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

A weakening shortwave is moving in from the northwest, with increase
mid to high-level cloudiness associated with it. A few echoes are
seen on the radar mosaic over IL/northern IN. This shortwave will
cross our region early Sunday with little surface reflection...save
for perhaps temperatures a little warmer than what we had for lows
this morning. Made changes to the gridded forecast, but overall
forecast looks on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Partly clear skies through the day today with afternoon highs in the
upper 80s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s. High level
clouds will linger into the overnight hours and clear by sunrise.
Surface high pressure will remain in place keeping it dry and warm
for the day tomorrow as well. Temperatures will continue to build
tomorrow with highs expected to reach the low 90s. Areas along and
west of I65 will have the best chance of exceeding 90 tomorrow.
Dewpoints will likely stay below 70, therefore keeping the humidity
relatively low.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Monday through Thursday Night...

Moving into the new work week, a prolonged streak of dry and hot
weather is expected as an impressive 594 dm upper ridge axis shifts
eastward over the Ohio Valley.  Mostly sunny days and mostly clear
nights are expected through Thursday.  Max temperatures will likely
continue to increase through the week.  Overall, still think that
the NBM blend is likely too aggressive over parts of the region.  In
general, the highest temperatures will be over our
western/southwestern sections (mainly west of I-65 and south of the
WK Parkway) with slightly lower highs across the Bluegrass where
recent heavy rainfalls have left the vegetative cover in better
shape and more green.  Across the I-65 corridor and points
west/southwest, webcams show decent vegetative stress showing up
from warm/dry conditions.

Highs on Monday will likely be in the lower 90s in areas west of I-
65 with upper 80s and lower 90s over the Bluegrass.  We`ll see temps
rise 1-2 deg/day in this pattern for Tuesday/Wednesday with highs of
93-98 across the west, with 90-95 in the east.  Similar temperatures
are expected on Thursday with 94-99 in the west/southwest and 90-95
in the east.  Dewpoints next week will mainly be in the 60s though
they may increase to the upper 60s by late week.  We`re likely to
see good mixing during the afternoon resulting in dry air mixdown.
Despite this, we`ll see afternoon heat indices in the upper 90s to
the lower 100s.  Latest LREF probs show 30-40% chances of exceeding
100F for heat indices across our southwest on Tuesday.  By
Wednesday/Thursday, there is a 50% chance of exceeding 100F for heat
indices in areas west of I-65, but this increases to >70% in the
Bowling Green area.  We will not see much relief at night as
overnight lows will only cool into the lower 70s, but may remain in
the upper 70s to around 80 in the urban corridors.

Based on the latest LREF probs, we`re not likely to reach heat
advisory criteria next week (3h or more of 105F).  However, the
duration of this event and subsequent impacts may require the
issuance of Heat Advisories in later forecast packages.

Friday and Saturday...

Toward the end of the week, the latest data continues to suggest
that the upper level ridge will begin to flatten and retrograde
slightly westward.  A back door frontal boundary may try and attempt
to drop south into the region.  In addition, we`ll see several
perturbations that will be rotating around the periphery of the
ridge axis and may bring a chance of showers/storms mainly to our
eastern areas.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 723 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period for all sites.
Light and variable winds overnight will start to pick up more from
the south and southwest Sunday morning as high pressure builds east
of our region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RJS
SHORT TERM...CAL
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...RJS