556
FXUS63 KLMK 141049
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
649 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Tuesday, overall drier and hotter conditions arrive as an upper
  ridge builds. A Heat Advisory has been issued for Tuesday and
  Wednesday.

* Heat remains through at least Thursday this week, before chances
  for showers and storms enter the forecast at the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Today, the axis of an upper ridge pushes east across the Midwest and
into the Ohio Valley as surface high pressure slides over the Great
Lakes. This will result in a sunny dry day over southern Indiana and
central Kentucky with winds shifting from the north to the east. CAA
will limit highs to the 80s.

Tonight, winds keep veering towards the southeast under clear skies.
Light winds allow temperatures to fall into the mid 50s to upper
60s. The coolest temperatures are expected in the Bluegrass region
with the warmest near Bowling Green.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Beginning Tuesday, the upper ridge becomes more positively tilted,
the center of the upper high sits centered near the Tennessee
Valley, and with surface winds veering to the southwest with the
aforementioned surface high making it to New England, WAA pushes
highs back into the 90s. Dew points reach back to the low to mid
70s, driving the heat index to the low 100s over western parts of
the CWA. Little changes heading into Wednesday as the upper high
drives farther north over the CWA, keeping elevated heat indices in
place. Because of this and with communication with surrounding
offices, the heat advisory has been extended into Wednesday.

Over the last couple of days the trend has been day by day pushing
the upper high farther north, pushing first zonal flow and then a
second upper ridge on Thursday farther north as well. In this upper
flow, a west to east oriented front is expected to produce shower
activity, and with the system`s northward trend, it should help to
keep most of the activity north of the CWA. The best chance for
additional rain will come late in the week as a cold front could sag
south into the Lower Ohio Valley either Thursday night or during the
day Friday, but with a upper low over the Gulf pushing west, south
of the high, it may help to keep the high over the Lower Ohio Valley
longer, keeping us drier.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 648 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Upper ridging and surface high pressure will keep VFR conditions in
place through the period. Winds out of the northeast will
continue veering towards the east throughout the day.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ Tuesday to 8 PM EDT /7
    PM CDT/ Wednesday for KYZ023>030-038-045-053-061>064-
     070>076.
IN...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ Tuesday to 8 PM EDT /7
    PM CDT/ Wednesday for INZ076>078-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...KDW