246
FXUS63 KLMK 062332
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
732 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered, slow moving showers and thunderstorms (20-40% coverage)
  are ongoing this afternoon from south-central KY/Bowling Green
  area northeast through the Bluegrass Region.

* Unsettled weather expected to continue Friday and into Saturday
  with rain chances peaking in the 50-60% range.

* A brief reprieve from precipitation is expected for the late
  weekend and into early next week. However, the latest data show
  the pattern becoming more active for mid-late next week with
  additional rounds of convection and potentially excessive rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Widely scattered showers and storms have developed this afternoon
from south-central KY northeast through the Bluegrass Region. A
moist (low to mid 70s dewpoints) airmass continues to gradually warm
and destabilize to the east of a weakening mesoscale outflow
boundary. This is remnant convective outflow from an overnight MCS
in MO, with the boundary now extending from just north of Memphis to
southern IN. Scattered convection is expected to continue through
the evening hours, diminishing in coverage substantially by sunset.

Sfc temperatures are rising into the mid and upper 80s, and low-
level lapse rates are notably steeper (> 7 C/km) east of the
aforementioned outflow boundary. However, weak mid-level lapse rates
and very weak shear will limit updraft strength. A few strong storms
will still be possible, and the strongest cores could produce
locally heavy downpours, lightning, and strong wind gusts (most
likely 40-50+ mph on the high end).

Upper level troughing will linger over the region into the weekend,
with multiple mid-level shortwave disturbances forecast to rotate
over the Mid-MS and OH Valley through Saturday. The next shortwave
trough drifts over IL tonight, and we could see a few showers as far
southeast as southern IN early Friday morning. However, expect
diurnal heating and destabilization to drive another round of
scattered pulse convection Friday afternoon and evening. Organized
severe weather is not expected, but isolated strong storms will
again be possible. Locally heavy rainfall could result in very
isolated flooding issues.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will remain possible Friday
night into Saturday as a somewhat deeper shortwave trough develops
southeast over the region. By Saturday afternoon and evening, the
highest coverage should be across the eastern half of KY as the mid-
level trough axis moves overhead and sfc high pressure builds
southeast over the Midwest.

We then transition to a slightly more deamplified upper level flow
pattern, with a weakening of the western CONUS ridge. We see a more
active WNW flow pattern, with the bulk of convection staying to our
north. This should result in mostly dry weather Sunday into early
next week. Unfortunately, this respite looks to be short-lived. We
could get right back into an active NW flow pattern by Tuesday night
or Wednesday, with multiple waves of convection possible through mid
to late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 732 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

A few isolated showers and storms remain over the region this
evening. As the sun sets, these showers and storms will dissipate
and winds will become light and back to the south. Light fog may
develop over BWG and RGA and this is included in the TAFs. In the
morning, winds will veer to the southwest around 5-8kts. By the
afternoon, winds will remain southwesterly and gust 18-22kts.
Showers and storms will increase over the region, similar to
previous afternoons. PROB30 groups have been included at HNB/SDF/LEX
where there is higher confidence at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...SRW