248
FXUS63 KLMK 050535
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1235 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Mostly dry weather takes hold late week through early next week
  with some frosty mornings, and some freeze potential Sunday and
  Monday mornings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Now - Thursday Night...

The surface cold front is now pushing into the I-65 corridor, and
will continue its slow push eastward to the I-75 corridor by early
evening. Ahead of this feature, the 30-40 knot low level jet core
will continue to lift to the NE, with periodic rain showers
continuing across the eastern half of our CWA into the evening.
Still watching a cluster of stronger showers and a few storms across
our SE CWA where the nose of a meager instability axis resides. A
few stronger storms with locally gusty wind remains a threat down
there for the next 1 to 2 hours.

Outside of that, looks like rainfall totals are mostly ending up in
the .75" to 1.5" range, with some clusters of 2.25" - 2.5" down
across south central KY. Overall, a pretty beneficial rainfall
especially for areas that had crept into D1-D2 drought conditions.

Things dry out from W - E heading into tonight, with some low level
stratocu building in post-frontal. Time heights suggest that enough
low level moisture may reside for some lingering patchy drizzle
through around Midnight EST or so. This will be interesting as SDF
has currently tied its daily record rainfall for November 4th at
1.47". Any drizzle could put us over the record. LEX has already
broken its daily rainfall record with plenty of precipitation still
to come.

Should dry out after Midnight EST with skies becoming mostly clear
assuming the drying isn`t overdone and post-frontal stratocu hangs
in longer than expected. Temps should stay up a bit given light to
steady winds behind the front. Looking for upper 40s and low 50s.
Thursday should be pleasant with perhaps some upper sky cover and
temperatures reaching the mid 60s. Cooler night Thursday night with
lows mostly in the low 40s.

Friday - Wednesday...

A closed upper low will slide into the eastern Great Lakes region on
Friday, with a trough axis expected to slide through our region as
well. Looks like some low level moisture will pool in the 1000-800
mb range associated with these features, and could be enough to
squeeze out some very light right rain and/or patchy drizzle.
Otherwise, the extended portion of the forecast looks dry with
unremarkable NW flow aloft and surface high pressure in control. We
will have to watch for a cutoff low passing to our south around the
Tuesday time frame, but for the moment the data suggests a dry
forecast.

Friday and Saturday will be the coolest of this forecast cycle with
highs in the mid 50s to around 60. Looks like some frosty mornings
starting Saturday morning through Wednesday morning, however Sunday
and Monday mornings may carry some freeze potential as well. In
talking with UK Ag, this could be the cold spell that ends our
frost/freeze headlines for the year given that the horticulture
season is all but over. High temperatures do trend a bit milder back
into the 60s for early to middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1233 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

MVFR ceilings will linger over the Bluegrass for a short while
longer, but dry advection from the southwest should bring this to an
end over the next couple of hours. Light southwest winds will
increase to around 10 kt mid to late morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJS
AVIATION...JRB