951
FXUS63 KLMK 092011
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
311 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Fog possible across the area late tonight into late Tuesday
  morning.

* Tuesday should be the warmest day of the week before a cold front
  drops into the region Tuesday evening. Light rain likely, mainly
  across southern KY Tuesday night.

* Additional signals for precipitation Thursday night into Friday
  and late this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Current satellite imagery shows a stratus band of clouds just moved
out of the Bluegrass region, leading to sunny skies that will
persist through the rest of the afternoon and early evening.
Temperatures have currently reached mid to upper 50s in the southern
half of the forecast area. North of I-64 have only reached high 30s
to mid 40s. Quiet weather and sunny skies should help melt off some
of the snow cover.

As we move into tonight, an upper level ridge will move over the
Ohio Valley, and brings a region of WAA in from the west. Surface
high pressure will keep the winds light, but then will shift out of
the south around midnight. Once we get around sunrise and in the mid
to late morning time frame, expect SSW surface winds will pick up to
around 10 mph, and surface dew points will start to surge. This
milder and more moist flow over the existing cold snow pack looks
like it could create a setup for an advection fog scenario. The
higher res models, like the NAM, are hitting this hard but also with
a noted low level moisture bias. Give that there are other models
like the GFS Lamp/NBM that aren`t as impressed can`t have too high
of confidence at the moment. Will handle with mainly just messaging
patchy fog for now from the 06-18z time frame, but really starting
to key in more on the 12-18z time frame for advection fog
development, if it is going to occur. Something to monitor through
the evening and overnight.

Through tomorrow afternoon, surface winds will range from 10-15kt
associated with an approaching cold front from the NW. Gust nearing
20kts cannot be ruled out during this time. Low level moisture will
advect into the Ohio Valley from the Gulf, and bring in a low level
stratus cloud deck. Tomorrow afternoon areas across south central KY
have a chance for rain showers. Temperatures will again be milder on
the strong warm advection component with highs in the upper 50s
across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Tuesday Night...

Cold front trailing from the surface low over New England will be
pushing through Tuesday night, with lingering rain showers ahead of
it, mainly along and south of the Ohio River. Look for a drying
trend from N to S through the night as this occurs, with colder air
trying to catch up to the back side of the lingering precip. Could
mix in some snow right at the end, but given the mild air ahead of
that brief changeover, not issues expected with it. By Wednesday
morning, looking for upper 20s and low 30s north, with low to mid
30s across central and southern KY.

Wednesday - Thursday...

Dry and unremarkable NW flow aloft takes hold through mid week with
cooler high pressure at the surface building into the Great Lakes
region. This should be a dry stretch with highs each day generally
ranging from around 40 in the NE CWA to around 50 in the southern
CWA. Wednesday night lows do get below freezing in the mid and upper
20s, so still have to watch for some re-freezing of snow melt,
depending on how much, if any, is left in any given location.

Thursday Night - Friday Night...

Low confidence for some light precipitation chances on Thursday
night as low pressure looks to develop over the southern Plains/Red
River Valley. The resulting placement of a warm frontal boundary and
the associated overrunning setup will be focus for whether we see any
light precipitation out of that system. Enough of a signal in the
deterministic guidance to at least warrant small chances of a wintry
mix, mainly across western or southern portions of the CWA. Other
data keeps us dry with the warm frontal boundary setting up too far
south for any isentropic lift overrunning the warm front. Either way
shouldn`t be a huge deal.

Friday and Friday night look like higher confidence for dry
conditions as dry NW flow aloft and surface high pressure should
hold over the region. Temperatures for that period look to be near
normal for this time of year.

Saturday - Monday...

Focus shifts to a larger/stronger system for the weekend that will
have much more deep moisture to work with. Shortwave energy looks to
eject out of the SW CONUS, and across the southern Plains on
Saturday. An associated surface low (rather strong beneath loosely
coupled upper jet structure) is then expected to move into the lower
Mississippi or Tennessee River Valley by Sunday. As this occurs,
deep moisture should gradually overspread our area from SW to NE
sometime on Saturday, and then persist into Saturday night and
Sunday as low level jetting responds nicely beneath favorable mid
and upper jet dynamics. PWATs do look to jump possibly as high as
the 1" to 1.25" range across central and southern KY, which looks to
fall in the 90-95th percentile for climatology of this time of year.
Also for context, LREF probs of greater than 1" in a 24 hour period
Saturday - Sunday are sitting around 30-40%, while NBM probs are
more in the 50-60 percent range. Current forecast QPF is ranging
between 1.5 to 2.5" across the CWA with larger amounts across
southern KY. Localized amounts over 3" can`t be ruled out at this
point. Overall, we`ll have to see how well we melt the snowpack this
week across central KY and southern IN, but at least one good thing
is that the heavier rain currently looks to fall where the snow pack
is already gone. Still, do think we could run into some minor
flooding concerns for low lying areas and perhaps some river basins
as well. Not real high confidence yet, we`ll have to see how the
week progresses.

Looks like we clear out by Monday, with a drier forecast expected by
then. No real cool down expected behind this system, and if anything
looks like it could be fairly mild.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR conditions are likely through the first six hours of this TAF
period. After 00Z this evening, forecast confidence is lower than
usual at this time range. Winds will remain fairly light and
somewhat variable this afternoon and evening, with mostly sunny
skies. Cirrus will spread overhead from the NW this evening.

Tonight, areas of fog still look possible due to quick radiational
cooling and low-level moisture advection from the southwest.
However, model guidance is still very much split on dense fog
potential. Some guidance is notably warmer and slower with bringing
in higher dewpoints, resulting in larger dewpoint depressions and
less fog potential.

Low-level moisture should also tend to lift/develop into a low
stratus layer Tue morning, with clouds likely lingering through the
remainder of the forecast period. This occurs as SW low-level winds
increase ahead of an approaching cold front. Marginal LLWS
conditions develop 12-18Z Tue, but left it out of the TAF for now
due to increasing sfc winds by that time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAL
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...EBW