327
FXUS63 KLMK 251729
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
129 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Low stratus will continue to mix out overnight with mostly sunny
  skies expected through the daytime hours with highs in the mid-
  upper 70s.

* Tranquil weather will continue through the weekend.  A brief
  warmup will be seen early next week before the next weather system
  arrives around mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Early morning satellite loops show low-level stratus continuing to
mix out across the region.  Main area of cloudiness was along the
WK/BG Parkways from Leitchfield northeast through Bardstown.
Temperatures were down into the lower 50s over the Bluegrass region
with lower 60s in the I-65 corridor.  For the remainder of the
overnight hours, no significant weather is expected.  Overnight lows
will range from the lower 50s in the Bluegrass to the mid-upper 50s
in the I-65 corridor back toward the I-165 corridor.  A few spots in
the northeast Bluegrass could crack the upper 40s.  Some patchy
river valley fog may develop across the Bluegrass toward dawn.

For the daytime hours, some lingering stratus will be possible in
the I-65 corridor early this morning. However, this cloud cover
should continue to mix out and skies for the remainder of the day
look to be mostly sunny.  A cool northeast flow will continue and
highs across southeast Indiana and into the Bluegrass will warm into
the lower 70s.  In the I-65 corridor and points west, highs of 72 to
77 are expected.

For tonight, dry conditions are expected, though model time-height
cross sections show some mid-high level moisture overspreading the
region.  Thus, we`ll probably see some high cloudiness drift over
the central and western part of Kentucky.  This looks to keep
overnight lows in the lower 50s for much of the area.  The exception
will be over in the eastern Bluegrass where more clear skies are
expected and lows look to drop into the lower-mid 40s.

Dry and tranquil weather is expected again on Saturday with highs
topping out in the 72-77 degree range.  Upper ridging may be a bit
stronger across the region Saturday night resulting in mostly clear
skies east of the US 27/127 corridor where temps will drop into the
lower-mid 40s.  In the I-65 corridor and points west, lows in the
upper 40s/lower 50s are expected.  Similar weather conditions are
expected on Sunday with highs in the 72-77 degree range and
overnight lows in the upper 40s to around 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Monday and Tuesday...

For the start of the week, continued ridging is expected from Texas
northeast into the Great Lakes.  Across the NE US, an upper level
and associated surface low will continue to lift northeast into SE
Canada.  Out across the west, an strong shortwave trough axis in the
southern stream will move thorugh the southwest US and continue to
deepen.  Locally, we`ll continue to be under the effects of the
ridging aloft.  So a continued dry weather pattern is expected. With
surface high pressure located to our east, we`ll get into a return
flow pattern with southerly winds bringing milder temperatures to
the region.  Highs on Monday will warm into the mid-upper 70s,
though a few spots west of I-65 could top out around 80.  Overnight
lows Monday night will be around 50.  Highs on Tuesday should
moderate a little more with readings in the upper 70s to the lower
80s.

Wednesday and Thursday...

By mid-week, focus will turn to the southwest US where a closed
upper level low in the southern stream will start to roll eastward.
As this occurs, a northern stream shortwave trough will push out of
the Rockies and into the central Plains.  The flow is a bit faster
in the northern stream and it appears that the northern stream wave
will quickly work into the Great Lakes by Thursday.  A slow moving
cold frontal boundary will work eastward across the Plains but will
remain west of the region through at least Wednesday.  Current
blended PoPs are likely too wet for Wednesday and I think we`ll see
those PoPs get scaled back in successive runs.  It does appear that
the cold front may get into region by Thursday...perhaps as late as
Friday/Saturday and stall out across the region as the flow aloft
become more zonal out ahead of the slow moving wave coming out of
the Plains.  For now, we`ll continue to highlight chance PoPs in the
Thursday period.  Highs on Wednesday will range from the upper 70s
to the lower 80s over southern Indiana and the northern half of
Kentucky.  Southern Kentucky will likely see temps warm into the
middle 80s.  Similar readings are expected for Thursday, though
expected clouds and possible precip, may impact temps here.

Extended Forecast Discussion...

Moving into late next week, the slow moving upper level low looks to
open up and eventually head eastward.  Strong southwest flow may
bring another round of warm air just ahead of the feature.  Current
ensemble guidance suggests that unsettled weather will likely be
seen across the region next weekend.  As that system heads east, a
strong ridge is expected to develop across the western US with
downstream troughing across the eastern US.  Model solutions have
been trending stronger with this wave and a blast of cold air may
infiltrate the Ohio Valley on/after 10/6 or so and linger for
several days.  The pattern looks likely to relax a bit.  However,
we`ll see a west Pacific typhoon (Surigae) recurve and merge into
the Pacific Jet as we cross into October.   This is likely to
perturb the jet a bit and lead to a stronger west coast Ridge and
deeper eastern US trough with another surge of cool air arriving
around the middle of October.  Longer range teleconnection patterns
going into Mid-October feature a -AO/-NAO/+PNA pattern with the EPO
flipping from positive to negative around mid-month.  This would
suggest that colder than normal conditions may develop/continue
across the Ohio Valley from Mid-October onward.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Clear skies this afternoon will linger for the next few hours until
high-mid level clouds begin streaming in from the northwest through
the evening/overnight hours. General northeasterly winds gusting 15-
20 kts will persist through the evening, lessening and becoming near
calm in some places like RGA overnight. High level clouds mix away
and clear skies with an ENE flow will prevail Saturday. VFR
conditions expected throughout the entire TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...BKF