086
FXUS63 KLMK 161708
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1208 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Sunny and cooler today, with very dry air this afternoon and 10-20
  mph winds from the northwest.

* Chilly start Monday morning, with lows in the upper 20s and lower
  30s.

* Unsettled weather next week resulting in multiples waves of rain
  Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

GOES Sounder data shows a very dry airmass over the Midwest this
beautiful Sunday morning. Area 12Z soundings matched well with the
precipitable water from GOES Sounder data. The dry airmass continues
making progress southeastward in the wake of the overnight cold
frontal passage. Main forecast package going below NBM guidance for
a dry-air mixdown event this afternoon still looks good. Maintained
a blend of time-lagged HRRR data and the consensus of short-term
models for the forecast...giving min rh values in the 15-25% range
this afternoon. Zones don`t need an update, as no noticeable change
is needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 353 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

The cold front has just about cleared all of central KY, with winds
now veering westerly at the Clinton County KY Mesonet site. We just
have a few very light rain showers lingering in the Lake Cumberland
area. Temperatures range from the mid 50s in southern IN to the mid
60s in southern KY. Low-level cold air advection will accelerate
through the remainder of the morning hours. Breezy NW flow will pull
much cooler, drier air into the region today into tonight.
Temperatures will continue to fall steadily into the mid 40s to mid
50s by mid-morning. Temperatures should rebound slightly into the
mid 50s to lower 60s for highs with the aid of full sun.

As mentioned, 10-20 mph NW flow in the lower levels will advect much
drier air into the region today. And with slightly deeper mixing
during the afternoon, we should mix down even drier air aloft.
Afternoon RH values are forecast to crash into the 15-25% range.
Very dry, somewhat breezy conditions could lead to an elevated fire
risk despite the cooler temps. Area RAWS sites observed 10-hr fuel
moisture dipped to around 10% Saturday afternoon, and given
herbaceous fuels have cured due to a previous hard freeze, there
appears to be some concern for an elevated fire danger.

High pressure continues to build in from the northwest tonight,
allowing winds to diminish after sunset. Clear skies and lighter
winds will lead to a chilly night. Look for Monday morning lows in
the upper 20s to lower 30s. Monday will again feature mostly sunny
skies and very dry lower levels. Afternoon highs will be in the 50s,
with minimum RH values dipping below 25% in most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 353 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Monday night - Tuesday night...

A compact upper level shortwave trough and weak sfc reflection are
forecast to swing east from the central Plains across the Mid-
Mississippi Valley Monday night into Tuesday. A robust SW low-level
jet will provide enhanced lift and moisture transport just ahead of
the wave. Forecast soundings show top-down moistening, with the
column mostly saturated by early to mid-morning Tuesday. Fairly
widespread light to moderate showers are expected across southern IN
and central KY on Tuesday. Decent mid-level lapse rates should yield
at least weak elevated instability, supporting a chance for embedded
thunderstorms.

A warm front will likely set up west to east in the vicinity of
central KY Tue as the weak sfc low moves over MO. Strong lower level
WAA across this boundary will yield a large SW to NE temperature
gradient. After a cool start to the day, temperatures will
eventually climb into the mid/upper 50s in the Bluegrass Region.
Meanwhile, Bowling Green and Russellville could top out near 70
degrees. Scattered to numerous showers will likely continue into
Tuesday night, with lows in the 50s.


Wednesday - Saturday...

Rain chances linger into Wednesday due to a quasi-stationary
boundary left behind by the Tue wave. However, any rainfall would be
much lighter on Wednesday with weaker forcing in place. Upper level
ridging sets up over the eastern CONUS downstream of a deep upper
level trough over the Desert Southwest.

Our weather is likely to remain unsettled through the remainder of
the week. Additional SW flow moisture transport into the stalled
boundary could yield additional rounds of rainfall Wednesday night
and Thursday. Deep W/SW flow will remain in place downstream of the
southern system. The upper level trough is forecast to eject
northeast with sfc wave development and occlusion possible over the
central CONUS by Friday. This system may very well bring strong
forcing and deep moisture transport to the Ohio Valley before a cold
frontal passage sometime Friday into Saturday.

Overall, the pattern next week appears conducive to a pretty good
swath of rainfall through the Ohio Valley. Rainfall totals of 1-3
inches are possible Monday night through next Saturday. However,
forecast confidence remains relatively low in the details,
especially rainfall amounts beyond Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1208 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR conditions expected to continue this period. Have some gusts to
around 15 kts at most terminals this hour. Those should start to
abate this afternoon...with winds becoming light and variable
tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RJS
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...RJS