416
FXUS63 KLMK 061915
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
315 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Slightly cooler and much drier air arrives Monday with small rain
  chances in our SE communities. There is a 70-80% TN border
  counties remain dry Monday afternoon.

* Quick-hitting heat wave arrives Tuesday-Wednesday with heat
  indices approaching the low 100s Wednesday afternoon.

* A trailing cold front arrives Thursday morning with widespread
  rainfall expected. Timing and high temperatures remain the highest
  uncertainty for Thursday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

===== This Evening - Monday Night =====

The dry air well behind an advancing cold front is slowly pushing
its way into northern KY now and will continue to do so later this
evening. Highs have struggled from the prolonged cloud cover across
southern IN and central KY this morning/afternoon. There`s still a
few hours left of peak heating to go through, and central KY
communities should at least reach the mid 80s this afternoon.
Further south the sun has been shining all day with temperatures
already reaching the low 90s in some areas. Everyone remains dry
today as the low level stratus mixes away. Eventually, drier air
from our northeast filters in this evening and into the overnight.

This change of air masses will be a reprieve from the heat we`ve had
here last week as high pressure at mid levels dictates weather
patterns until mid week. Lows Monday morning will be much cooler in
the upper 50s across the northern Bluegrass to the mid 60s across
central and southern KY. The morning hours should feature some
lingering cloud cover as the sun rises. Highs tomorrow will still be
warm in the mid to upper 80s and isolated low 90s, but at the
surface, dew points will be much lower still in the upper 50s and
60s. However, due to the positioning of the parent high to our
north, an inverted trough will set up on our side of the
Appalachians. This will cause a subtle increase in dew points and
moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere with increasing cloud
cover Monday afternoon across central/eastern KY. While dry
conditions are still favored tomorrow, a few showers or maybe even a
storm is possible, especially in our SE counties closest to the axis
of the inverted trough. Most places remain dry with communities
along the TN border having a 70-80% of remaining dry as well.
Overall, Monday remains quiet with lows dipping into the mid 60s and
low 70s with a returning southerly flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

===== Tuesday - Saturday =====

With the return to southerly flow and later southwesterly flow at
the surface Tuesday, hot and muggy air returns at least briefly
Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon as the parent high to our north
drifts towards the east. A lower level jet from an approaching
trough upstream will help bring in air from the Gulf with highs
Tuesday and Wednesday reaching the low to mid 90s. Apparent
temperatures Wednesday may reach the low 100s again just for one day.

The upstream trough will trek across southern Canada bringing a
trailing cold front in its wake. The timing of this front looks to
hold off until Thursday morning to midday Thursday. Ahead of the
front, moisture will be streaming in. Aided by the lower level jet,
there may be enough forcing for storms Thursday. However, lapse
rates may struggle along with CAPE values struggling to get near
1,000 J/kg. This may change though because stability could decrease
if the front waits to approach later in the afternoon. Rainfall
totals look to be light, though LREF solutions are right-skewed with
a tail approaching 1.5" inches. Altogether, widespread rain will
move across the area along a stalling out front. High temperatures
are highly uncertain, with model guidance ranging from the mid 70s
to low 90s possible -- dependent on the amount of rain and timing of
the front.

We close the week out on Friday and Saturday with drying skies
and temperatures a bit cooler in the mid to upper 80s once again.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Low MVFR stratus continues to drift south, while simultaneously
lifting and dissipating around the edges as surface heating dries
the lower atmosphere. Conditions should go predominantly VFR area-
wide by around 19z, possibly 20z at RGA. In addition, deeper mixing
will result in an increase in winds out of the northeast in the wake
of these clouds, with a few gusts approaching 20 kt mid to late
afternoon at SDF and LEX. Gusts should diminish after 00z and winds
ease beginning a couple hours later as high pressure settles into
the area.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BKF
LONG TERM...BKF
AVIATION...JRB