Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
089
FGUS73 KLMK 131632
ESFLMK
INC019-025-037-043-061-077-117-123-143-175-KYC001-003-005-009-017-021-
027-029-031-045-049-053-057-061-067-073-079-085-087-091-093-097-099-103-
111-113-123-137-141-151-155-163-167-169-171-179-181-183-185-207-209-211-
213-215-217-223-227-229-239-140000-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Louisville KY
1230 PM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025
...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3...
This outlook covers south central Indiana, central Kentucky, and the
Ohio River from Madison, Indiana to Tell City, Indiana.
The flood risk in the middle of the Ohio Valley is normal to slightly
above normal. Minor to moderate flooding is expected due to rainfall
and thunderstorms with isolated major flooding possible especially
south of the Ohio River.
This outlook is valid through May 2025.
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 03/18/2025 - 06/16/2025
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Barren River
Bowling Green 28.0 32.0 45.0 : 14 11 8 8 <5 <5
:Blue River
Fredericksburg 20.0 24.0 27.0 : 27 25 12 13 <5 <5
:Cumberland River
Burkesville 46.0 55.0 64.0 : 20 22 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Drakes Creek
Alvaton 24.0 35.0 42.0 : 34 29 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Elkhorn Creek
Peaks Mill 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 39 33 26 21 15 14
:Green River
Munfordville 28.0 50.0 57.0 : 20 20 <5 <5 <5 <5
Mammoth Cave 32.0 57.0 62.0 : 46 34 <5 <5 <5 <5
Rochester 37.0 45.0 50.0 : 65 <5 8 <5 <5 <5
Woodbury 26.0 38.0 41.0 : 74 58 10 13 7 <5
:Kentucky River
Camp Nelson Lock 30.0 36.0 40.0 : 21 22 8 16 6 11
Frankfort Lock 31.0 35.0 40.0 : 11 11 7 5 <5 <5
Ford Lock 26.0 35.0 40.0 : 21 16 <5 <5 <5 <5
High Bridge Lock 30.0 36.0 39.0 : 15 16 7 7 5 <5
Lockport Lock 33.0 43.0 49.0 : 24 22 8 7 <5 <5
:Licking River
Blue Licks Spring 25.0 42.0 45.0 : 44 36 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Muscatatuck River
Deputy 25.0 28.0 32.0 : 32 17 12 <5 <5 <5
:Ohio River
Clifty Creek 451.0 457.0 470.0 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Cannelton Lock an 42.0 46.0 50.0 : 29 27 <5 <5 <5 <5
McAlpine Lower 55.0 65.0 73.0 : 19 19 <5 <5 <5 <5
McAlpine Upper 23.0 30.0 38.0 : 25 24 <5 <5 <5 <5
Tell City 38.0 44.0 50.0 : 55 51 <5 8 <5 <5
:Rolling Fork River
Boston 35.0 42.0 45.0 : 30 35 13 10 7 7
:Rough River
Dundee 25.0 28.0 30.0 : 42 29 20 14 <5 5
:Salt River
Shepherdsville 32.0 35.0 40.0 : 7 8 <5 6 <5 <5
:South Fork Licking River
Cynthiana 20.0 22.0 23.0 : 15 17 8 11 6 9
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/18/2025 - 06/16/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Barren River
Bowling Green 13.7 14.8 16.8 21.8 24.7 29.1 36.1
:Blue River
Fredericksburg 7.1 7.9 9.0 11.0 20.8 24.5 25.6
:Cumberland River
Burkesville 35.4 36.2 40.0 43.9 45.4 47.2 48.8
:Drakes Creek
Alvaton 10.7 11.6 13.7 20.9 25.8 29.0 33.3
:Elkhorn Creek
Peaks Mill 5.7 6.3 7.0 8.3 12.2 15.0 17.0
:Green River
Munfordville 14.6 15.2 16.9 20.6 25.3 34.1 40.6
Mammoth Cave 24.4 25.2 27.3 31.0 37.0 44.5 46.7
Rochester 34.9 35.3 36.3 38.2 41.0 43.9 46.8
Woodbury 21.8 22.5 25.8 28.9 33.6 38.0 43.2
:Kentucky River
Camp Nelson Lock 20.5 22.0 23.6 27.0 29.1 32.9 41.6
Frankfort Lock 12.4 13.0 14.9 20.6 24.2 31.3 37.7
Ford Lock 17.6 18.4 20.0 23.0 24.9 29.5 34.4
High Bridge Lock 17.0 17.8 19.3 22.8 25.8 32.0 39.4
Lockport Lock 16.5 17.8 20.4 27.0 32.4 40.8 46.1
:Licking River
Blue Licks Spring 16.1 17.7 20.0 23.5 29.4 34.3 38.5
:Muscatatuck River
Deputy 12.1 13.1 18.6 22.6 25.9 28.2 30.1
:Ohio River
Clifty Creek 429.0 431.3 437.2 442.6 447.2 449.7 451.4
Cannelton Lock an 24.5 28.2 34.3 39.9 42.4 44.0 44.5
McAlpine Lower 30.5 34.7 43.0 49.2 53.8 56.9 59.0
McAlpine Upper 12.6 13.5 16.9 19.4 23.0 25.9 27.9
Tell City 23.5 27.1 33.2 39.1 42.0 43.4 43.8
:Rolling Fork River
Boston 15.7 19.3 24.7 30.8 36.1 43.3 45.8
:Rough River
Dundee 18.0 19.7 21.5 23.7 27.6 28.8 29.7
:Salt River
Shepherdsville 6.1 6.6 8.6 13.2 21.7 29.6 33.8
:South Fork Licking River
Cynthiana 8.0 9.1 10.4 13.3 17.6 21.2 23.2
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/18/2025 - 06/16/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Barren River
Bowling Green 9.1 8.5 7.2 4.4 3.9 3.7 3.6
:Blue River
Fredericksburg 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.4
:Cumberland River
Burkesville 32.2 32.0 29.8 28.3 27.8 27.3 26.3
:Drakes Creek
Alvaton 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.1
:Elkhorn Creek
Peaks Mill 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1
:Green River
Munfordville 5.0 4.2 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.0
Mammoth Cave 13.1 11.5 10.8 10.4 10.0 9.7 9.6
Rochester 31.0 30.6 29.6 28.4 27.5 27.0 26.8
Woodbury 9.1 8.5 6.3 3.7 2.9 2.6 2.5
:Kentucky River
Camp Nelson Lock 12.9 12.7 12.3 12.0 11.7 11.6 11.5
Frankfort Lock 7.8 7.7 7.4 7.1 6.9 6.8 6.8
Ford Lock 11.1 10.9 10.4 10.2 9.9 9.8 9.7
High Bridge Lock 10.6 10.3 9.9 9.4 9.1 8.9 8.9
Lockport Lock 9.8 9.6 9.2 8.7 8.5 8.4 8.3
:Licking River
Blue Licks Spring 11.0 10.8 7.2 6.0 4.9 4.7 4.6
:Muscatatuck River
Deputy 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8
:Ohio River
Clifty Creek 422.1 421.9 421.4 421.1 420.8 420.5 420.4
Cannelton Lock an 14.3 13.5 12.3 11.6 11.0 10.8 10.7
McAlpine Lower 15.6 14.5 12.8 11.7 10.9 10.5 10.4
McAlpine Upper 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5
Tell City 15.3 14.7 13.7 13.0 12.3 12.0 11.9
:Rolling Fork River
Boston 4.7 4.4 3.8 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.7
:Rough River
Dundee 10.6 9.9 8.4 7.4 6.9 6.9 6.9
:Salt River
Shepherdsville 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5
:South Fork Licking River
Cynthiana 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.
Since mid December, precipitation has been well above normal and
temperatures have been below normal across the region. As of mid
March, soil moisture was above normal and streamflows were near normal
or above normal over southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Reservoir
levels were near or above normal.
Over the next week, the weather pattern will be active with a strong
storm system expected to bring 1-3 inches of rain with locally higher
amounts this Friday-Saturday. This looks to result in some minor river
flooding with isolated moderate river flooding possible. Another storm
system will bring additional rainfall of less than 1 inch Wednesday-
Thursday of next week.
The 8-14 day outlook which goes out through March 26 calls for above
normal temperatures and precipitation. At this time of year, normal
temperatures are in the mid to upper 40s and normal precipitation is
around a quarter to one inch.
The outlook for late March to early April calls for good chances of
above normal temperatures and precipitation. Normal temperatures for
late March are in the low 50s with normal precipitation between a
quarter to one inch.
The seasonal outlook for March through May indicates good
chances for above normal temperatures and precipitation.
Additional supportive data and explanations are available for
precipitation and temperature outlooks as well as soil moisture at
www.cpc.noaa.gov.
Current snowpack data are available at www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa.
Current streamflow data are available at water.usgs.gov/waterwatch.
Current reservoir levels for this area are available at www.lrl-
wc.usace.army.mil/reports/lkreport.html.
Visit our web site weather.gov/lmk for more weather and water
information.
This is the final hydro outlook for Spring 2025.
$$
AMS