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FNUS73 KLMK 130031
FWSLMK

Spot Forecast for Chelsea Flatwoods Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Louisville KY
731 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EST on November 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...High pressure over the region will help to keep
weather quiet, conditions dry, and skies clear. On Thursday, we
will see some dry air mix down in the afternoon, which will lead
to lower RH. Thursday afternoon, minimum RH will be in the 30-35%
range. 20ft winds and transport winds will back from WNW to SW by
Thursday around sunset. Mixing heights are progged to be around
2000-2300ft, though with good mixing, may be closer to 3,000ft in
the peak of the afternoon. Expecting to see a continued warming
and above normal temperature trend through the weekend.

On Friday morning, there is a small chance for light showers.
These showers would bring a quarter inch of rain or less to the
area.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Temperature.........50 at ignition...Max 61.
RH..................56 percent at ignition...Min 33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 2 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 2300 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /10600 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...poor
                    /18000 knot-ft/.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................13 to 26.

TIME (EST)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........11     15     23     20
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............50     57     61     57
RH..............56     38     33     43
20 ft wind......W 2    W 3    W 2    W 2
20 ft wind gust.6      7      6      5
Mix hgt (ft)....1300   2200   2200   1500
Transport wind..NW 9   NW 9   NW 9   W 7
LVORI...........2      2      2      2
ADI.............16     25     25     13
SDspl kt-ft/100011     17     17     9

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Temperature.........Min 37.
RH..................Max 96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 7 mph shifting to the south 7 to
                    8 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (800 knot-ft).
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................2 to 3.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........25     16     18     21     27     27
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............54     42     40     39     38     38
RH..............50     79     85     85     92     92
20 ft wind......SW 1   S 1    S 1    S 2    S 2    S 2
20 ft wind gust.4             2      4      4      4
Mix hgt (ft)....800    200    300    300    300    300
Transport wind..W 6    SW 5   SW 6   SW 7   S 7    S 7
LVORI...........2      4      5      5      6      6
ADI.............2      2      3      3      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/10004      1      2      2      2      2

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the morning.
Temperature.........Max 59.
RH..................Min 74 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south around 5 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon, then becoming light
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1700 knot-ft).
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................7 to 15.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........38     51     65     68     67     60
Weather cov.....       S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............37     42     49     54     57     59
RH..............92     86     83     77     75     78
20 ft wind......S 2    S 3    S 4    S 4    S 4    S 4
20 ft wind gust.5      6      6      8      8      7
Mix hgt (ft)....200    500    900    1100   1100   900
Transport wind..S 8    S 10   S 12   SW 10  SW 10  SW 9
LVORI...........6      5      4      4      4      4
ADI.............9      11     13     15     13     11
SDspl kt-ft/10002      4      9      10     10     8

$$
Forecaster...BTN
Requested by...Jesse Moore
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2525769.0/LMK
.DELDT 11/13/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jesse_moore@tnc.org