111
FNUS73 KLMK 090742
FWSLMK

Spot Forecast for Davis Bend...Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Louisville KY
342 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 EDT on October 09.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure is moving off to the east, which is allowing winds
to shift from the southeast. Dry and warm conditions will continue
through today. Dry air mix down will lead to afternoon RH around
23-30%. In the afternoon, scattered upper clouds will move in
from the south. Transport winds will be about 8-11kts, which will
allow for Fair smoke dispersion today.

Tonight, remnants of Hurricane Isaias will bring overcast skies.
On Saturday, rain chances will increase from south to north by
late morning. Wind gusts up to 35mph will accompany rain chances.
These conditions will continue through Saturday night and slowly
decrease from west to east on Sunday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Temperature.........52 at ignition...Max 84.
RH..................74 percent at ignition...Min 25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds east at 1 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds becoming east around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 3800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 6 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /1600 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...fair
                    /38500 knot-ft/.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................3 to 39.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........13     8      13     38     60     74
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............52     51     65     77     82     83
RH..............74     74     52     32     26     25
20 ft wind......E 1    E 1    E 2    E 3    E 4    E 4
20 ft wind gust.       2      4      7      8      8
Mix hgt (ft)....300    300    600    2000   3800   3500
Transport wind..E 6    E 7    E 8    E 9    E 12   E 12
LVORI...........3      3      2      2      1      2
ADI.............3      7      8      23     31     30
SDspl kt-ft/10002      2      4      16     38     35

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent).
Temperature.........Min 60.
RH..................Max 62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 9 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1600 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................4 to 20.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........77     85     63     91     86     94
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............81     74     66     64     63     62
RH..............28     41     56     60     60     60
20 ft wind......E 3    E 2    E 2    E 2    E 2    E 2
20 ft wind gust.6      6      6      6      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....2100   400    300    400    400    400
Transport wind..E 10   E 9    E 10   E 10   E 10   E 10
LVORI...........2      2      3      3      3      3
ADI.............20     4      5      5      5      5
SDspl kt-ft/100019     3      3      4      4      4

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of showers in the
                    morning, then showers and chance of
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 72.
RH..................Min 58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 7 to 13 mph with
                    gusts to around 20 mph early in the morning.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 10 to 18 mph increasing to 20 to 22 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to marginal (35300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................5 to 40.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........94     93     83     87     89     69
Weather cov.....              CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY DEFNTE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                            CHANCE CHANCE
Temp............61     60     65     68     67     68
RH..............60     60     60     61     73     76
20 ft wind......E 2    E 6    E 8    E 9    E 10   E 11
20 ft wind gust.6      11     15     16     20     20
Mix hgt (ft)....400    500    1200   1700   1800   1900
Transport wind..E 10   E 12   SE 15  SE 18  E 20   E 22
LVORI...........3      3      2      1      3      3
ADI.............5      9      21     32     35     40
SDspl kt-ft/10004      5      16     27     31     35

$$
Forecaster...SRW
Requested by...Michael Vasquez
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2623077.3/LMK
.DELDT 10/09/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL cminor@tnc.org,michael.vasquez@tnc.org