207
FNUS73 KLMK 141102
FWSLMK

Spot Forecast for Abbey rx fire...KDFWR
National Weather Service Louisville KY
702 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on May 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION... It will be dry and a bit unseasonably cool with highs
into the upper 60s to low 70s with northerly winds gusting to 15-20
mph around late morning into midday. Min RH values will be in the low
to mid 30s. We have mixing heights later today around 6000-6500ft with
good smoke dispersal later this afternoon.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Temperature.........46 at ignition...Max 69.
RH..................68 percent at ignition...Min 33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds north at 2 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds becoming north 5 to 8 mph with
                    gusts to around 14 mph early in the morning.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 6300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 12 to 20 mph decreasing to around 10 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /6400 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /84800 knot-ft/.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................11 early in the morning increasing to 111 in
                    the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........6   4   1   2   2   2   2   3   2   2   1
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............46  47  50  54  58  60  62  64  65  66  67
RH..............68  68  61  52  45  41  41  35  35  34  33
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..2   4   6   6   7   7   6   6   6   5   5
20 FT wind gust.7   11  13  14  14  13  11  11  10  8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 1.1 2.0 3.2 4.2 4.9 5.3 5.6 6.1 6.3 5.9
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.12  13  15  17  20  20  18  16  14  13  10
LVORI...........3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............11  17  39  67  98  110 111 102 93  88  69
SDspl kt-ft/10006   12  26  48  72  83  85  78  73  70  53

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Temperature.........Min 42.
RH..................Max 82 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 3 to 8 mph shifting to the southeast 3 to
                    6 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Marginal (29800 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (100 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................43 early in the evening decreasing to 2 late in
                    the night.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........2   2   1   2   6   6   4   1   1   5   1   10
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............67  64  64  60  56  52  50  49  47  47  45  43
RH..............34  40  41  47  55  66  71  74  74  74  79  82
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   NE  NE  E   E   SE  SE  SE  S   SE
20 FT wind spd..4   3   2   2   2   2   1   2   1   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.6   6   5   4   4       2               4   4
Mix hgt (kft)...4.3 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   NE  NE  E   SE  SE  SE  S   S
Transp wind spd.8   7   6   5   3   3   3   3   3   5   5   6
LVORI...........1   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   5
ADI.............43  3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3
SDspl kt-ft/100030  13  2   0   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Temperature.........Max 77.
RH..................Min 33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......3900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (50700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................3 early in the morning increasing to 70 in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........24  28  14  34  37  66  57  58  73  42  48  36
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............45  47  48  55  61  67  69  70  72  73  74  76
RH..............76  74  77  61  51  42  39  38  37  35  35  33
20 FT wind dir..S   SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   4   4   4   6   6   6   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.4   4   5   6   6   6               7   7   8
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.0 2.8 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.8 3.9 3.7
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.6   7   7   7   8   9   10  13  14  15  15  14
LVORI...........4   3   4   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............3   7   7   10  21  33  40  52  58  68  70  61
SDspl kt-ft/10001   1   2   7   14  22  29  37  42  49  51  44

$$
Forecaster...BTN
Requested by...Bryan Cobban
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2613631.0/LMK
.DELDT 05/14/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL bryan.cobban@ky.gov