626
FXUS63 KLOT 170850
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
350 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances increase this afternoon, with multiple
  rounds of storms possible Tuesday night through Wednesday
  evening. Some storms may be severe and produce torrential
  rainfall, particularly on Wednesday.

- Hot and humid conditions expected to arrive this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Through Wednesday Night:

Early morning surface analysis depicts low pressure over
western Lake Superior, with a cold front trailing through
northwest WI into KS. Several significant outflow boundaries
associated with ongoing MCS clusters across NE/KS have muddled
the location of the front in those areas. Closer to home, a few
spotty showers have occasionally bubbled south of PNT-IKK-VPZ
from an apparent weak MCV and outflow from scattered late Monday
storms. This little disturbance should continue to drift
southeast of the area this morning. To our north, isolated
showers/storms have been dissipating across east-central WI,
also along a weakening outflow boundary. This remnant outflow
may settle into far northern IL this morning, though subsidence
in the wake of an eastward-drifting upper trough axis is
expected to help maintain a capping inversion through at least
midday which should preclude any significant potential for
shower/storm development during that time. Another remnant MCV
was also noted across southeast IA, associated with an MCS which
moved through the DSM area last evening. This feature is
expected to drift east- southeast into central IL later today,
and may work to erode capping somewhat by early afternoon across
our southwestern cwa.

While effects of some of these more subtle features are
uncertain for our cwa through midday/early afternoon,
thunderstorm potential does look to increase by late afternoon
as a less subtle (and likely convectively-assisted by ongoing
MCSs) mid-level short wave moves slowly east from the Plains.
CAM guidance is in fairly good agreement in developing
convection into our western/northern cwa by late this afternoon
and spreading it eastward across much of the remainder of the
area this evening. Model forecast MLCAPEs are generally in the
1500-2000 J/kg range initially, though with marginal deep shear
of 20-25 kts. This should allow strongest cells to have a
wind/marginal hail threat into the evening hours, before
instability gradually diminishes with the loss of diurnal
heating.

Confidence then diminishes with respect to timing/details of
additional rounds of thunderstorms overnight and into Wednesday.
Synoptically however, the more amplified Plains short wave
continues to track east toward the mid-upper Mississippi Valley
tonight, with general guidance consensus in a deepening surface
low developing into eastern IA by 12Z Wednesday. This induces a
strengthening 30-35 kt southwesterly low-level jet late tonight
into Wednesday, which is likely to support additional
thunderstorm development. Overnight storms may be somewhat
elevated, particularly if evening convection leaves a more
substantial surface cold pool. Increasing moisture
transport/theta-E advection (p-wats approaching 2.00" or 175% of
normal) will present a threat of locally heavy rainfall amounts
and flooding potential with these clusters.

Surface low is progged to continue to deepen to around 1000 mb
Wednesday as it moves across southern WI. Despite the potential
for a stable cold pool across the area from overnight storms,
breezy southwest low-level winds would appear to favor at least
some recovery and destabilization of the airmass by early
afternoon. Uncertainty does remain with respect to remnant
outflow boundary position and cloud cover, though moderate
instability coupled with increasing 40-50 kt mid-level flow
suggests an increasing severe thunderstorm threat by Wednesday
afternoon. This environment would be supportive over organized
clusters and supercells, capable of all hazards. SPC has
upgraded their Day 2 outlook to include an enhanced risk across
our southeastern cwa for these threats. The mid-level trough
axis and surface cold front move across the forecast area from
west to east Wednesday evening, ending the thunderstorm and
severe weather threat.

Dependent on cloud cover today, very warm and humid conditions
are expected with afternoon highs expected from the upper 80s to
around 90 (peak heat indices in the low-mid 90s) in most areas.
Cloud cover and precipitation should limit temperatures to the
upper 70s to mid- 80s Wednesday, with warmest readings in the
southeast.

Ratzer


Thursday through Monday:

As the surface front exits to the east, an upper level ridge
over Texas will grow through Thursday and drift east on Friday.
As skies clear Thursday afternoon, temperatures should warm into
the low to mid 80s. Westerly winds on Thursday will slowly turn
to the southwest overnight into Friday, increasing warm air
advection into the region. Even with more mid level moisture
moving in to increase cloud cover on Friday, temperatures are
expected to continue to warm solidly into the mid to upper 80s.
Long range models are hinting at a few weak perturbations over
Wisconsin with associated vort maxes that may drift southward
over the stateline that could be just enough forcing to trigger
an afternoon shower/storm on either day. Confidence remains low
at this range, but felt no need to remove the slight (less than
25 percent) chance the NBM provided in northeastern Illinois.

That upper level high will continue to grow on Saturday and
Sunday with a surface high developing over the eastern CONUS.
With strong southerly flow into the western Great Lakes, 850 mb
temperatures will climb to 20 to 23C. That same flow will also
increase Gulf moisture into the region increasing dew points
this weekend into the 70s. Hot and humid conditions are expected
as surface temperatures expected to climb into the 90s and heat
indices into the 100s. Little relief can be expected overnight
as low temperatures Sunday and Monday morning are expected to
only get down into the 70s. There is still some concern that
with the amount moisture available, scattered diurnal
thunderstorms or even overnight clusters could prevent sunshine
from creating the heating necessary for the aforementioned heat
indices. But with strong subsidence over the region, the going
forecast remains dry. For now, Saturday and Sunday look to be
the hottest days. However, ensemble guidance does not show much
movement to the high early next week which could keep warmer
temperatures lingering and only gradually step down into the
middle of next week. While there is a signal for an upper level
trough out west to swing over the Plains and approach the area
around Tuesday/Wednesday next week, there is lower confidence in
details on its influence and any precipitation chances.

DK

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Key Aviation Messages for the current TAF period:

- Chances for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening.

VFR conditions are expected through this morning as light
southwest winds become westerly. A system will move through the
region from west to east providing the next chance for showers
and thunderstorms at area terminals in the afternoon and evening.
There is moderate confidence in the timing in the PROB30 group
listed in the TAFs, though it should be noted that recent model
runs are trending slightly later with arrival times. There is a
nonzero chance for showers and storms to arrive as early as 19Z,
but it was decided to leave that out of the TAF and handle that
tactically should they materialize. Current expectations are
for VFR cigs with these storms. Any reduction in flight rules to
MVFR levels would be due to reduced vis from heavier downpours.
Nevertheless, if there is continuity in the next iteration of
models, it would not be surprising to update the PROB30 to a
TEMPO for the 12Z forecast.

Lower confidence on the end time for showers/storms at
terminals, but it is looking like there could be break at area
terminals behind the storms and into Wednesday morning. While
conditions will remain VFR and winds are expected to be light
through the overnight, there is lower confidence in wind
directions and they could very well be light enough to be
variable.

DK

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.

&&

$$

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