063
FXUS63 KLOT 130647
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
147 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A slight chance (20%) for showers through midday today.

- A chance (30%) for showers Tuesday night.

- The pattern turns more active heading into the upcoming
  weekend with increasing rain chances (30-50%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Light showers/sprinkles continue to dissipate across northwest
IL as they move east into a drier airmass. The lower levels will
slowly saturate this morning and additional isolated showers
are possible. While many areas may stay dry or just see
sprinkles, have included 20% pops for showers through midday for
the northwest half or so of the local area. This activity looks
to weaken/dissipate by early/mid afternoon.

While current temps are generally in the 50s north of I-80,
mostly cloudy or cloudy skies this morning will likely limit the
temperature rise some. But some partial clearing this afternoon
may allow highs to rebound before sunset. Highs in the lower to
mid 70s look on track, with perhaps the coolest temps in the
60s across far northeast IL.

A cold front will move across the area tonight shifting winds to
the northeast, which will continue through Wednesday, allowing
for a larger temperature gradient across the area with 70s well
inland and 60s for areas closer to the lake.

Precip trends continue to go up and down for Tuesday night with
a weak disturbance moving across the area. No changes to the
blended low chance pops for Tuesday night but overall confidence
is low for precip trends. Best chance appears to be north of
I-80 with perhaps some potential for any precip that develops to
be north into southern WI. There is now another low chance for
showers Thursday morning as another wave lifts northeast near
the area. Similar to Tuesday night, better chances may end up
just north of the area into WI.

The end of this week into the weekend still looks active though
there is some potential precip chances may be short in duration
with a cold front moving across the area Friday night into
Saturday and then pushing east of the local area. ECMWF develops
a surface low along the front, slowing the overall pattern and
keeping rain chances for most of the weekend. Blended pops are
now high chance to near likely for several periods. Made no
changes but still several days away and changes can be expected.
cms

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

There are no significant aviation forecast concerns anticipated
through the current TAF period.

A line of light rain showers is currently shifting eastward into
northwestern IL at the time of this writing. While some of this
activity could reach KRFD after 08Z, the line of showers
continues to show signs of weakening as it runs into a drier
low-level airmass across northern IL. Accordingly, we are not
expecting any real impacts, should any of these showers hold
together. Farther east towards the Chicago area terminals, dry
weather is anticipated overnight. If any light showers or
sprinkles were to make it into the Chicago area, this would
likely not occur until sometime mid to late this morning.
However, the chances for this are too low (<15%) to include a
mention at the Chicago area terminals.

Regardless of the chance of light showers, a low-mid level VFR
cloud deck will shift in across the area later this morning and
will persist through the remainder of the TAF period. Otherwise,
expect light southeasterly winds overnight to veer more
southerly later this morning before eventually turning north-
northeasterly later in the day as a cold front drops into the
area.

KJB

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.

&&

$$

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