134
FXUS63 KLOT 142318
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
518 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm weather persists through Saturday.

- Blustery Saturday afternoon and night behind a cold front,
  then dry and much colder for Sunday.

- Precipitation chances return Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

An expansive upper-level ridge across the central CONUS will
continue to foster unseasonably warm weather across our area
through Saturday. Following a afternoon with temperatures well
into the 60s, breezy south winds tonight will keep temperatures
abnormally mild for this time of year, with readings not expected
to fall below the low to mid 50s.

The unseasonable warmth continues in advance of an approaching
cold front on Saturday. Some lower-level cloud cover may develop
overnight late tonight and linger into Saturday morning, but
conditions should scatter out by midday. Breezy southwest winds,
potentially gusting as high as 30 mph will start the day, but
directions will turn northwesterly for the afternoon following
the cold frontal passage. Since the colder airmass will lag
behind the cold front afternoon temperatures are expected to top
out well into the 60s to around 70 following the very warm start
to the morning.

Dry and cooler, more seasonable temperatures (highs in the mid and
upper 40s) are slatted to return for Sunday in the wake of
Saturday`s frontal passage. These cooler temperatures are expected
to persist into next week, though we will also have a couple of
increased chances for precipitation next week. The first will come
Monday into Tuesday as a low amplitude impulse shifts eastward
out across the Mid- Mississippi Valley. Precipitation types
continue to favor mainly rain with this disturbance, but we will
have to continue to monitor for the potential of a mix of wet
snow and rain across parts of far northern IL Monday night.

Our next threat of precipitation then looks to come later in the
week in response to a larger trough and associated storm system
shifting out across the Plains and into the Mid-Mississipi Valley
region. There is still a large deal of ensemble spread with the
specifics of this system. However, there continues to be a
notable signal in the guidance supporting a period of wetter
weather in our general region Thursday into Friday of next week.

KJB

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 518 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Aviation forecast concerns for the 00Z TAFs:

- Potential for a period of lower MVFR ceilings and gusty
  southwest winds late tonight into early Saturday ahead of a
  cold front.

- Breezy west-northwest winds behind the cold front Saturday
  afternoon/evening.

Surface low pressure is forecast to develop along a cold frontal
trough across the far upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes
through early Saturday. In response, south winds will gradually
increase into the 10-15 kt range and turn southwesterly across
the forecast area tonight as a low-level jet develops overhead.
Model guidance had backed off slightly on the magnitude of the
jet, making for marginal LLWS conditions not worthy of a TAF
mention at this time. Advection of low-level moisture (mid-upper
50s surface dew points just upstream early this evening) will
likely result in the development of a lower MVFR deck late
tonight into Saturday morning. MVFR should improve quickly by
mid-late morning with the passage of the cold front.

There remains a signal for a period of gustier southwest winds
of 25-30 kts as mixing deepens into the departing jet after
sunrise Saturday, prior to the passage of the cold front. Winds
will shift west-northwest and eventually more solidly northwest
behind the front, with gusts in the mid-20 kt range likely to
persist into Saturday evening. A few gusts to 30 kt are
possible.

Ratzer

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to 4 PM CST Sunday for
     Winthrop Harbor IL to Gary IN.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 9 AM CST Monday for
     Gary to Burns Harbor IN-Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN.

&&

$$

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