251
FXUS63 KLOT 222046
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
246 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild temperatures (highs in the 50s) are expected Sunday
  through Tuesday.

- Widespread rain (>80% chance) returns areawide late Monday
  into early Tuesday.

- Turning cold and blustery Wednesday with wind gusts > 35 mph,
  potentially paired with a few flurries.

- Unseasonably cold temperatures (highs in the 30s) continue on
  Thanksgiving and through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

A thin layer of alto-stratus clouds has put a several hour
damper on today`s sunshine, particularly across northern
Illinois, though there may be a few breaks in the clouds prior
to sunset as the back edge continues to shift southeast across
the area. This has also slowed some of our diurnal warming this
afternoon, with temperatures in cloudier areas remaining mainly
in the mid-upper 40s. However, continued southwesterly low-
level warm advection should still allow temperatures to reach
the lower 50s across the far southern CWA into central Illinois.
A dry cold front is then slated to move across the area this
evening and overnight but is not expected to result in much
more than than a west northwest wind shift paired with another
period of increased cloud coverage.

Sunday continues to look more solidly mild for mid-to-late
November standards, with forecast highs in the lower 50s
areawide. A deeper subsidence layer in the wake of tonight`s
cold frontal passage should also help limit cloud coverage
compared to what occurred today.

A cut-off low currently centered over Baja California is
forecast to lift northeast toward the region early next week as
it attempts to merge back into the broader upper-level flow.
This will be the primary driver of an expected round of
widespread precipitation Monday night into Tuesday (>80% chance).
Warm temperatures in the upper 40s to upper 50s will support
rain being the only precipitation type with this system with
forecast precipitation amounts generally around 0.15-0.45".

A vigorous shortwave then dives across the northern Plains in
the wake of the early week system, with an associated strong
cold front forecast to move across the area Wednesday morning.
This will usher in the much anticipated unseasonably cold
airmass (-10 to -15C 850 mb temps!) across the region for the
Thanksgiving holiday period. The primary impacts for Wednesday
in addition to falling temperatures will be the winds. While
still several days out, it does appear that wind gusts could
exceed 35-40 mph for a time which would also result in wind
chills dropping into the 20s. While the better signal remains
largely north of the IL-WI state line, a few flurries and/or
brief snow showers could round the system during the day on
Wednesday and lead to localized visibility reductions (15%
chance).

With the cold airmass still in place, forecast highs both
Thanksgiving and Friday are only in low to mid 30s with
overnight lows in 20s. Other than potential lingering lake
effect snow showers in far northeast Porter County, dry
conditions are expected.

After a brief break, ensemble guidance continues to favor the
pattern turning more active once again toward the end of the
week into the first week of December, with upper troughing
setting up across the western CONUS and upper ridging across the
eastern CONUS. If this occurs, the resultant southwesterly flow
overhead would set the stage for a series of disturbances to
lift across the broader region. As to be expected, there remain
a lot of details to iron out this far out. Nevertheless, this
period will be monitored closely for potentially impactful
weather systems across the central CONUS. Stay tuned.

Petr

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1040 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Expect VFR conditions through the period. A mid-level stratus
deck will cross the terminals this afternoon through early
evening. Cannot fully rule out a few sprinkles at RFD, but any
precip is expected to remain north of the area well into
Wisconsin. Otherwise, SSW/SW winds around 10 to 15 knots will
veer WNW 5 to 10 knots overnight through Sunday.

Kluber

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST
     Sunday for Gary to Burns Harbor IN-Burns Harbor to
     Michigan City IN.

&&

$$

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