451
FXUS66 KLOX 221642
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
942 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.SYNOPSIS...22/930 AM.

Minimal changes expected through the weekend with above normal
temperatures. Patchy night and morning low clouds and fog will be
confined to coastal areas, mostly north of Point Conception.
Additional warming is possible next week as high pressure builds
in from the southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...22/941 AM.

***UPDATE***

Expecting a very similar day today compared to yesterday with
highs 4-8 degrees above normal but not quite to heat advisory
levels. Temperatures this morning are actually running 1-3 degrees
cooler than yesterday at the same time, but by the end of the day
expecting highs to be within a couple degrees of yesterday.

Models continue to show little change in this pattern through at
least Monday. After that most of the ensembles show increasing
heat along with weakening onshore flow which cloud push some areas
into heat advisories and possibly warnings in some areas.

***From Previous Discussion***

Few changes are expected through the weekend, with warm conditions
persisting. The combination of hot daytime temperatures, warm
overnight lows and some monsoonal moisture at mid to upper levels
will continue to feel uncomfortably warm. Breezy winds are
expected at times, with northerly Sundowner winds along the Santa
Barbara Southwest coast and foothills, and gusty onshore winds
over interior sections.

Not much change in the upper level pattern for Today, with 500 mb
heights peaking around 593 to 594 dam. However, will see these
heights fall a few dam for Sunday and Monday. Expecting fairly
similar highs as yesterday for today, with limited marine layer
clouds and similar strength in onshore flow. While the hottest
areas are not quite widespread enough to warrant a Heat Advisory,
some interior valley and mountain locations (Woodland Hills, for
example) will reach around 10 degrees above normal. Caution is
still advised for those working or recreating outdoors during the
daytime.

Will likely see the typical afternoon to evening breezy onshore
(Southwest) winds with gusts around 20 to 30 mph over the far
interior today, including Antelope Valley. These winds should
trend weaker over the next few days. Northerly winds will again
develop during the evening hours for the Santa Barbara southwest
coast with sub-advisory level winds expected through Sunday
evening, possibly reaching advisory levels Monday evening.

As for the monsoonal moisture flowing over the area from the
southeast, current high resolution guidance does not suggest any
significant shower activity over the area for the next dew days.
However, cannot rule out a stray shower or two in favorable
interior locations.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...22/533 AM.

High pressure is expected to build back into California, with
warming Tuesday while at the same time pressure gradients from
the north and east weaken. With high temperatures already on the
verge of advisories and warnings through early next week, the next
burst of heat Tuesday and beyond has at least a 40-60% chance
pushing that over the edge to at least heat advisory levels and
possibly into warning level, particularly inland areas. Ensemble
guidance is trending towards at least 3 days of hot conditions,
with some potential for additional mid-level moisture Tuesday. How
widespread the heat hazards are will be largely be determined by
the pressure gradients. If the gradients trend towards the 75th
percentile or higher, which roughly would be around -3mb LAX- DAG
and -4mb LAX- BFL, temperatures would on the higher side with
numerous excessive heat warnings likely. If gradients have less of
an offshore component per the latest GFS then temperatures will
still be hot but at least a few degrees cooler. The latter
scenario being the most likely outcome.

Still not seeing any big subtropical push next week, though there
is minor peak in PW`s on Tuesday and early Wednesday at around
1.2". However, warm ocean temperatures will likely continue to
limit cooling overnight.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1234Z.

At 0341Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 700 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 2000 feet with a temperature of 30 C.

High confidence in 12Z TAFs with VFR for sites: KPRB, KSBA, KVNY,
KBUR, KPMD, KWJF.

Low to moderate confidence in the coastal TAFs. Most likely, sites
that have not seen cigs yet will remain VFR for the rest of the
morning, but cannot rule out brief cigs at KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, and
KLAX.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 12Z TAF. There is a 20% chance
of IFR conds between 13Z to 16Z. If CIGs occur, the timing could
be off by 2 hours. No significant east wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.

&&

.MARINE...22/826 AM.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions likely continuing over the
outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island through
tonight, lowering to moderate risk for Sunday and Monday. There
is a moderate risk for the nearshore Central Coast waters each
afternoon and evening through tonight, lowering for Sunday and
Monday. Localized SCA level wind gusts are also possible for
portions of the Santa Barbara Channel this afternoon and evening,
especially near the Channel Islands. Elsewhere, the risk for SCA
is low, with seasonal winds likely. Chances for SCA conditions
will likely increase again including some nearshore waters by
Wednesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 AM PDT Sunday for zone
      645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT Sunday for
      zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Phillips/Ciliberti
AVIATION...Phillips
MARINE...LP/RK/Sirard
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox