059
FXUS66 KLOX 121737
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1037 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2026

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...12/1031 AM.

A cooling trend will continue through Thursday, with cooler than
normal temperatures expected across the area into the weekend.
There is a chance of mountain and occasional lower elevation
convection through at least tonight and potentially lingering
into Thursday morning. More robust marine layer cloud coverage is
likely this week, however, higher clouds may disrupt the formation
of the marine layer at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...12/815 AM.

***UPDATE***

Current Satellite shows a vorticity lobe with active convection
250 SM WSW of Point Conception. This is expected to move onshore
this evening through Tomorrow morning bringing around a 30% chance
for showers and thunderstorms across SLO & SB counties.

Our main focus this afternoon is convective chances (40%) over
the Lockwood valley area - most likely 12pm-6pm. Lowered the
chances some over eastern San Gabriels due to lack of moisture
in the mid-levels, but still 30% chance of shower or T-storm.

There is another shortwave dives southward behind on Friday
but has less vorticity and is dry in the 700-300 mb layer - not
expecting any impacts at this time.

***From Previous Discussion***

Troffing will set up over the west coast today and will continue
through Friday. Hgts will fall to 584 dam today and then to 582
dam Thursday. At the sfc there will be mdt-stg onshore flow both
to the north and east.

Most of the coast will wake up to low clouds this morning with
some patchy dense fog across the Central Coast. Skies otherwise
will be partly to mostly cloudy as plenty of mid and high level
clouds drift overhead. There will be enough low level moisture to
allow for a chc of TSTMs over the mtns esp the northern VTA county
ones. A small vort lobe will drift over SBA/SLO counties and will
bring a chc of showers/TSTMs to those areas as well. Max temps
will drop 4 to 8 locally 10 degrees as the marine layer, onshore
flow, cloud cover and lowering hgts all conspire together. Most
max temps will end up about 6 degrees under normals.

On Thursday the SW flow from the trof will bring enough drying to
eliminate the convective threat. The onshore flow and troffing
aloft will gin up a pretty robust marine layer cloud deck that
will cover most of the csts and will xtnd into the vlys. Clearing
will be slower than normal and some beaches may only see limited
clearing. Another 2 to 4 locally 6 degrees of cooling will bring
max temps that are 2 to 4 degrees blo normals across the csts and
a whopping 5 to 10 degrees across the vlys. Vly highs will only be
in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Not much change is slated for Friday and the day should greatly
resemble Thursday.

The onshore push to the east will top out near every afternoon.
This strong push will generate gusty winds across the Antelope
Valley and its foothills. There will be a 20-30 percent chc of
low end wind advisories each afternoon.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...12/246 AM.

Good agreement with all of the medium range mdls. The west coast
trof will persist through Saturday with hgts rising to 588 dam.
The trof will then be pushed to the west by a powerful upper high
that spans most of the southern portion of the CONUS. Srn CA will
then be under flat dry SW. Hgts will climb to 592 dam. At the sfc
the mdt to stg onshore flow to the east will continue but the
onshore push to the north will weaken substantially and might even
be offshore by Tuesday or Wednesday.

The weather will be benign through the period. There will be
plenty of night through morning low clouds and fog across the
csts. Due to the rising hgts the marine layer will be shrunk to
under a 1000 ft which should keep it out of the vlys. Skies,
otherwise, will be mostly clear. The weakening onshore flow to the
north will also lessen the amount of coastal low clouds early next
week esp if the offshore flow develops.

Gusty but still sub-advisory levels winds will continue across
the Antelope Vly.

Temps will begin to warm on Saturday. Look for 2 to 4 degrees of
warming on Saturday and Sunday and 1 to 2 degrees each day Monday
and Tuesday. Even with the four days of warming max temps Tuesday
will remain 2 to 4 degrees blo normal.

&&

.AVIATION...12/1736Z.

At 1639Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1600 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was near 2500 feet with a temperature of 21 C.

High confidence in TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of prevailing groups
may be off +/- 2 hours and conditions by one category.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival and clearing of MVFR
CIGs (012-018) may be off +/- 2 hours. No significant east wind
component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. No wind issues expected.

&&

.MARINE...12/815 AM.

High confidence that conditions will remain below Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) criteria across all coastal waters through Friday
morning. Low to moderate chances for SCA winds across favored
areas south of Point Conception this weekend. Increasing chances
across all coastal waters heading into next week.

There is a slight chance of a shower or a thunderstorm around
and north of Point Conception later this afternoon thru early
Thursday morning.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until midnight PDT tonight
      for zones 349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke/Black
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...Lewis/Phillips

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox