692
FXUS66 KLOX 100640
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1140 PM PDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...09/201 PM.

Priscilla`s outer bands will bring periods of showers and
potential thunderstorms to eastern LA County through Friday, but
impacts are expected to be minimal. Gusty northerly winds are
likely this weekend. Confidence is low, but there is potential
for a significant storm system Monday through Wednesday. A wide
range of outcomes is possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)...09/801 PM.

***UPDATE***

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate clear skies
across the area except for eastern LA county where moisture/clouds
from the remnants of Priscilla are moving to the north-northeast.
Current sounding data indicates marine inversion ranging in depth
from around 800 feet across the LA Basin to around 1800 feet
across the Central Coast.

Forecast-wise for the immediate short term, main focus will
continue to be moisture from Priscilla. Overnight, models indicate
clouds will continue to stream across the eastern half of LA
county. With this moisture, there will continue to be a 15-30%
chance of showers and thunderstorms in this area. Based on precip
reports today and the speed of the showers, do not anticipate any
significant hydrologic issues with any convective activity.

Otherwise, the overnight hours will see some stratus/fog
developing across the Central Coast as well as the Salinas River
Valley. For southern Santa Barbara county and Ventura, skies are
expected to remain mostly clear overnight.

Overall, current forecast has good handle on the immediate short
term. So, no significant updates are expected.

***From Previous Discussion***

Eastern Los Angeles County continues to remain right on the edge
of Priscilla`s outer moisture. High clouds and a few come and go
type showers will continue across eastern Los Angeles County into
Friday, but at this point any impacts should to minor as the
upper level flow is moving at a rapid enough rate to limit
flooding concerns. Light rain with totals up to 0.25 in is
possible, but most locations in LA County won`t see any rain. A
few lightning strikes are possible as well. All significant
impacts from Priscilla`s moisture will remain well to the east.

Friday night through Saturday night, north to northwest flow
(except for northeast across interior Santa Barbara County) with
gusts in the 20-35 mph range will be common across typically windy
portions of each county. There is also a moderate chance of gusts
to 45 mph across southwestern Santa Barbara County, the I-5
Corridor, and the Antelope Valley and foothills Saturday afternoon
into the evening when winds peak in magnitude. Northwesterly to
northerly winds will begin to turn more northeasterly by Sunday
morning, but will remain below advisory levels.

Most of SLO and Santa Barbara counties will remain below normal
through the weekend with the exception of the Santa Ynez Valley
and eastern Santa Barbara county interior which will be warmer
than normal. Most of LA and Ventura counties will be close to
normal, with warmer than normal highs across the interior of LA
County until a cooling trend begins Saturday  as 500 mb
heights begin to fall as the trough responsible for pulling in
Priscilla`s moisture to SoCal sags south and moves east.
Overnight low temperatures across LA County will be up several
degrees tonight and Friday night before cooling down this weekend.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...09/201 PM.

The major story next week is the potential for a significant
storm system Monday night through Wednesday morning as an upper
low drops from Canada down the West Coast to California. Although
there exists a wide range of outcomes from minor impacts to major
impacts, most EC and GFS ensemble members agree upon at least some
rain across all four counties Monday night into Wednesday
morning, with Tuesday being the best chance. Depending on the
track of the low, outcomes could be anywhere from widespread light
rain to significant flash flooding and debris flows, with all
burn scars in play. There is also a chance for enhanced mountain
rain if southwest flow coming off the low comes to fruition, as
this enhances the orographic impacts (which could be more
impactful for burn scars). Advisory level winds are also possible
with the incoming system, but again, there is a wide range of
options. Temperatures will drop significantly and there is a low
chance for mountain snow at the highest peaks. The current
forecast has rain totals and chances somewhere in the middle of
these ranges, but this is an evolving situation so changes to the
forecast in the coming days are likely. Monitor to forecast for
most up to date information as this is a highly uncertain but
potentially highly impactful scenario.

Not expecting much in the way of marine layer clouds as onshore
flow will be fairly weak to the east if not slightly offshore and
considerably offshore from the north until Monday when the
aforementioned upper level low swings its way into California.
Onshore flow will become dominant quickly, but the low should
create enough lift to inhibit any chances of marine layer cloud
development through at least Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...10/0640Z.

At 0526Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 700 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was around 3300 ft with a temperature of 23 C.

Low to moderate confidence in KPRB/KSBP/KSMX/KCMA/KOXR as timing
of flight category changes may be off by 2 hours, and there are
chances that no cigs form through the period at KSBP (10%), KCMA
(30%), and KOXR (20%).

Moderate confidence for LA County coasts and valleys, with a
15-25% chance of brief IFR- MVFR cigs forming through 18Z Fri. For
all LA county sites, there is a 10-15% chance of showers or
thunderstorms through 00Z Sat.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 25% chance of
BKN006-BKN012 CIGs 08Z-18Z Fri, and there is a 15% chance of
showers and thunderstorms through 00Z Sat. No significant easterly
wind component is expected outside of any potential thunderstorm
outflow winds.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 15% chance of
BKN006-BKN012 CIGs 08Z-18Z Fri, and there is a 10% chance of
showers and thunderstorms through 00Z Sat.

&&

.MARINE...09/808 PM.

For the outer waters and the nearshore waters along the Central
Coast, conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) levels through late tonight. Widespread SCA level
winds will then be very likely (60-80%) Friday evening through
early Monday. Morning lulls below SCA levels are possible
nearshore along the Central Coast on Saturday and Sunday. There is
a 60-70% chance of GALES Friday evening through Saturday evening,
highest from the waters near Point Conception south to San
Nicolas Island. Seas will be choppy & hazardous during this
timeframe. Therefore, Inexperienced boaters should seek or remain
in safe harbor.

Inside the southern California bight, conditions are expected to
remain below SCA levels through Friday morning. SCA conditions are
likely across the Santa Barbara Channel Friday afternoon through
Sunday. Winds will be strongest across the western portion, which
has a 30-40% chc of GALES Saturday afternoon & evening. Short-
period hazardous seas are also expected. Equal chances that SCA
level winds reach Ventura Coastline during this time.

Moisture associated with rapidly weakening Tropical Cyclone
Priscilla off the Baja California coast will move north through
Friday. There is a 10-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms for
the southern coastal waters, highest from south of Dana Point
into the San Pedro Channel adjacent to Los Angeles and Orange
Counties tonight through Friday morning. This activity may linger
into the evening hours on Friday.

Any thunderstorm that forms will be capable of producing locally
gale force winds and rough seas, dangerous lightning, and heavy
rainfall with reduced visibility, and even a waterspout.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM Friday to 9 AM PDT
      Saturday for zones 645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Friday to 3 AM PDT
      Sunday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 9 PM PDT Friday
      for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Friday evening through late
      Saturday night for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewis/Thompson
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Black/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...Lewis

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox