080
FXUS66 KLOX 220618
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1118 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.SYNOPSIS...21/745 PM.

Minimal changes expected through the weekend with above normal
temperatures. Patchy night and morning low clouds and fog will be
confined to coastal areas. Additional warming is possible during
the middle of next week as high pressure builds in from the
southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...21/850 PM.

***UPDATE***

Few changes are expected through the weekend, with temperatures
above normal by several degrees each day. Combined with warm
overnight lows and some monsoonal moisture at mid to upper levels,
conditions will continue to feel uncomfortably warm. Breezy winds
are expected at times, with northerly Sundowner winds along the
Santa Barbara Southwest coast and foothills, and gusty onshore
winds over interior sections.

Today`s highs were between 95 to 105 across the valleys and
interior, with 70s to 80s along the coast. The inland coastal
areas warmed compared to yesterday, in the 80s to mid 90s.
Downtown LA had a daily record high of 96 degrees, previously set
in 1891. Tomorrow expect fairly similar highs, with differences of
plus or minus a couple of degrees likely. While the hottest areas
are not quite widespread enough to warrant a Heat Advisory, some
locations (Woodland Hills, for example) will reach the criteria at
around 105 degrees. Caution is still advised for those working or
recreating outdoors during the daytime.

Onshore (Southwest) winds are gusting around 20 to 30 mph over the
far interior, including Antelope Valley. Along the SBA southwest
coast, gusts are 25 to 35 mph. The peak gusts may increase close
to 40 mph over the next few hours before decreasing later this
evening.

As for the monsoonal moisture flowing over the area from the
southeast, the NAM12 shows the tap drying up Saturday afternoon so
the shower chances are now below 10 percent and only for the
eastern LA County mountains.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...21/156 PM.

High pressure is expected to build back into California starting
next Tuesday while at the same time pressure gradients from the
north and east weaken. With high temperatures already on the verge
of advisories and warnings through early next week, the next
burst of heat Tuesday and beyond has at least a 40-60% chance
pushing that over the edge to at least heat advisory levels and
possibly into warning level, particularly inland areas. How
widespread the heat hazards are will be largely be determined by
the pressure gradients. If the gradients trend towards the 75th
percentile or higher, which roughly would be around -3mb LAX-DAG
and -4mb LAX-BFL, temperatures would on the higher side with
numerous excessive heat warnings likely. If gradients have less of
an offshore component per the latest GFS then temperatures will
still be hot but at least a few degrees cooler. The latter
scenario being the most likely outcome.

At this time not seeing any big subtropical push next week, though
there is minor peak in PW`s on Tuesday and early Wednesday at
around 1.2".

&&

.AVIATION...22/0427Z.

At 0341Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 700 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 2000 feet with a temperature of 30 C.

High confidence in VFR TAF for sites: KPRB, KSBA, KVNY, KBUR,
KPMD, KWJF.

Low to moderate confidence in the coastal TAFs. The best chance of
low clouds is along the Central Coast, with LIFR conds expected
and a chance of VLIFR at KSMX. Further south there is a 20%
chance of low clouds for the Ventura and LA Coastal sites.
For all coastal sites, the timing of category changes could be
off by +/- 2 hours.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 06Z TAF. There is a 20% chance
of IFR conds between 13Z to 16Z. If CIGs occur, the timing could
be off by 2 hours. No significant east wind component is
expected.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.

&&

.MARINE...21/755 PM.

High risk of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions continuing
over the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island
through Saturday night, lowering to moderate for Sunday and
Monday. There is a moderate risk for the nearshore Central Coast
waters each afternoon and evening through Saturday, lowering for
Sunday and Monday. Elsewhere, the risk for SCA is low, with
seasonal winds likely. Chances for SCA conditions will likely
increase again including some nearshore waters by Wednesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 AM PDT Saturday for
      zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon Saturday to 2 AM PDT
      Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT Sunday for
      zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Ciliberti/MW
AVIATION...Ciliberti
MARINE...RK/DB
SYNOPSIS...MW/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox