317
FXUS66 KLOX 092143
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
143 PM PST Tue Dec 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...09/133 PM.

Benign weather will continue through this week, with a warming
trend continuing through Thursday. High temperatures will be well
above normal through at least Friday. Offshore flow will produce
locally gusty canyon winds in the mornings.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...09/140 PM.

Enjoyable weather is expected through the short-term period. A
590 dam ridge of high pressure is centered about 700 miles west of
Point Conception. This feature is expected to remain nearly
stationary & gradually weaken through the week. Offshore gradients
from the north and east have peaked Today and are expected to
weaken Wednesday through Friday. KSBP-KBFL & KSMX-BFL gradient
values will be similar late tonight into early tomorrow morning.
However, there will not be support up to 850 mb that we had this
morning. Thus, winds should remain below wind advisory criteria,
but cannot rule out a local gust to 45 mph. Gusty winds are
expected through and below passes and canyons in the usual Santa
Ana wind prone areas through Thursday morning. Local gusts to 45
mph is possible across the Santa Susana mountains through Wed
morning, with a 20% chance of a wind advisory.

The combination of offshore flow and the upper high will result in
clear skies and well above normal temps across the area through
likely Friday. Maximum Temps are expected to warm 2 to 4 degrees
Wednesday, except for the coast and inland coast areas which should
remain similar.

Overall, this will make Wednesday the warmest day across our area.
Inland coastal areas will see highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s
& valley locations well into the 80s. The warmest locations will
be across the San Fernando, Santa Clarita, Ojai, & Santa Ynez valley
floors. Max T departures are expected to be 12 to 18 degrees above
normal. Some local areas over 20 degrees.

Most sites should stay below record values. However, our forecasted
numbers are within a couple degrees of daily records such as:
Ojai (1958) and Lancaster (1975).

The ridge and offshore flow will weaken some Thursday into Friday
which will result in 3 to 6 degrees of cooling across csts/vlys
thanks to earlier and stronger seabreeze. The far interior should
remain near the same as the previous day. Coastal areas will see
more cooling on Friday as offshore gradients continue to relax.
Most areas should remain about the same, except for SLO interior
which could see 2 to 4 degrees of warming.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...09/141 PM.

A shortwave trough is expected to arrive to the area on Saturday
reducing 500mb heights to around 578 dam. Also, gradients look to
increase to near neutral according to ECMWF guidance. About 50%
of ensembles have weak onshore flow which would be sufficient for
night through morning low clouds and fog (likely dense) to return
to some of the coasts. More support on Sunday.

Max Temperatures are expected to cool 1 to 3 degrees on Saturday.
Another 3 to 6 degrees of cooling is expected on Sunday. However,
we will stay above normal by 3 to 6 degrees across csts/vlys and
6 to 12 degrees across the interior. There is decent agreement
on reinforcing ridging early next week which would likely result
in offshore flow, less clouds, and another increase in temps.

The ECWMF/AI show some support for troffing and rain chances to
return after the 20th, but its minimal and low confidence at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...09/1903Z.

At 18Z at KLAX, There was no marine layer.

High confidence in VFR TAFs.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. Any east wind component will
be less than 7 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.

&&

.MARINE...09/1103 AM.

NE winds of 15 to 25 knots will affect wind prone areas at times
through Wednesday morning. This includes portions of the Central
Coast and from Ventura to Santa Monica. These winds will likely
reach low-end Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels for the nearshore
waters of San Luis Obispo County.

Some dense fog will form in the coastal waters by Thursday or
Friday, but low confidence on when and where.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST Wednesday for
      zones 645-670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Black
AVIATION...Munroe
MARINE...RM/RK/BL
SYNOPSIS...Ciliberti/KL

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox