155
FXUS66 KLOX 121951
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1251 PM PDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.SYNOPSIS...12/1244 PM.

Below normal temperatures prevail through at least Wednesday, with
coastal morning clouds and gusty onshore winds. Warming likely to
return towards the end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...12/1244 PM.

A relatively quiet stretch of weather will continue over the next
several days across southwestern California. Areas south of Point
Conception will see cooling through Wednesday, with highs
generally cooler than mid-September averages, especially Monday-
Wednesday. The combination of light offshore flow in the overnight
through morning period and limited marine layer cloud cover
(thanks to the offshore flow) will result in slight warming over
the Central Coast Sunday and Monday, with a cooling trend taking
the reigns Tuesday-Wednesday. More noticeable will be the much
less muggy feeling weather at atmospheric mositure is much lower
than last week, and will continue to decrease through tonight.

Breezy onshore winds will be common each afternoon, with some
gusty northwest to northeast winds across some interior and even
some coastal mountains (eastern Santa Ynez/Santa Lucias), with a
low to moderate chance for wind advisories to be needed for Sunday
night in windiest areas, such as the Grapevine area.
Additionally, gusty Sundowner winds will impact southern Santa
Barbara County through Monday morning, and a Wind Advisory is in
place.

Night through morning marine layer clouds will be common at times,
however offshore flow will limit marine keep clouds along the
Central Coast the next couple of nights. Sundowner winds will
likely keep marine layer clouds away from the Santa Barbara south
coast and potentially Ventura County.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...12/1243 PM.

Little change expected Tuesday-Wednesday with a fairly stagnant
upper pattern and persistent moderate to strong onshore flow.
There may be slight cooling each day, but the fairly mild mid-
September should continue. The marine layer will likely become
more robust across all coasts and maybe some lower valleys.

The consensus in models for Thursday through the end of next week
is for warming, as high pressure builds in from the southeast and
onshore flow weakens. The magnitude of that building high
pressure and the offshore trends are still to be settled, which
means the magnitude of the warming is uncertain. Temperatures
pushing above normal look very likely, with a low but non-zero
chance of Heat Hazard-level hotness. Peering down to the south,
there are a couple of tropical systems that could provide some
moisture, but the signal is weak at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...12/1645Z.

At 1630Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1600 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 4400 feet with a temperature of 24 degrees
Celsius.

For 18Z TAF package, high confidence in CAVU conditions for KPRB,
KSBA, KWJF and KPMD.

For all other sites, moderate confidence in 18Z TAFs due to
uncertainties in behavior of marine layer overnight. There is a
40% chance of MVFR/IFR conditions at KOXR/KCMA/KSBP after 08Z.
For LA Basin TAFs, timing of flight category changes could be
+/- 4 hours of current forecasts.

KLAX...Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. High confidence in
CAVU conditions this afternoon. For tonight, timing of return of
MVFR conditions could be +/- 4 hours of current forecasts. No
significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. High confidence in
CAVU conditions through this evening. For tonight, timing of
return of CIG/VSBY restrictions could be +/- 3 hours of current
10Z forecast. There is an equal chance of either CIGs coming in at
MVFR or IFR levels overnight.

&&

.MARINE...12/1139 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Tonight
through Sunday night, GALE FORCE winds are expected and GALE
WARNINGS remain in effect. For Monday and Tuesday, winds will
decrease to Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels and drop below SCA
levels on Wednesday and Thursday. Seas near SCA levels (7-10 feet)
are also expected through Sunday night.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast. Tonight through Monday night, SCA level winds
are expected in the afternoon and evening hours. For Tuesday
through Thursday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA
levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence
in current forecast. For a majority of the southern Inner Waters,
winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Thursday. The
only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara
Channel where SCA level winds can be expected today through
Monday, mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM PDT
      Monday for zones 349-351-352. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone
      650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM PDT
      Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewis/Lewis/RK
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...RK/BL

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox