388
FXUS66 KLOX 121504
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
804 AM PDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.SYNOPSIS...12/201 AM.

Below normal temperatures prevail through at least Wednesday, with
coastal morning clouds and gusty onshore winds. Warming likely to
return towards the end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...12/803 AM.

***UPDATE***

The forecast is well on track with really not much to add this
morning. Morning marine layer clouds returned to most of the
coastal areas and the cooling trend will continue today.

***From Previous Discussion***

Another sunny day is on tap once the marine layer clouds burn
off. High temperatures will continue to decrease across the region
by about 5 to 10 degrees again, as well as the tropical moisture
decreasing even more.

Fairly quiet next few days. The ridge responsible for this past
extreme heat event will continue to flatten out with further
cooling expected through at least Sunday, and areas south of
Point Concpetion cooling into Tuesday. In general max temps will
be below seasonal normals into at least early next week. Maybe
more noticeable will be the decreasing humidity and PWATs drop
from around 1.5" to 0.75" by tonight.

The one exception to the quiet weather is increasing northwest
winds focused over Santa Barbara County and northern LA County.
The Santa Barbara County Sundowners will be the strongest of the
bunch, and looks to peak this weekend when the SBA-SMX gradient
may approach -5 millibars. The Wind Advisory from last night has
ended, but will be issuing a fresh Advisory and stretch it out
from this evening through Sunday Night. While the western part of
the South Coast is certain, there is a moderate risk for winds to
reach advisory strength over the eastern Santa Ynez Range. Decided
to add them to the Advisory to be on the safe side.

Expecting a more robust marine layer through the weekend. The
exceptions being southern Santa Barbara and northern Ventura
Counties thanks to the Sundowners, and the Central Coast on Sunday
as models show a clearing trend associated with locally moderate
offshore flow.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...12/214 AM.

The Sundowner winds that peak over this weekend should weaken
heading into Tuesday, which will allow the marine layer to expand
and push deeper into the coastal valley areas. Otherwise, little
change is expected from Monday through Wednesday with an upper
level trough and moderate to strong onshore flow prevailing.

The consensus in models for Thursday through the end of next week
is for warming, as high pressure builds in from the southeast and
onshore flow weakens. The magnitude of that building high
pressure and the offshore trends are still to be settled, which
means the magnitude of the warming is uncertain. Temperatures
pushing above normal look very likely, with a low but non-zero
chance of Heat Hazard-level hotness. Peering down to the south,
there are a couple of tropical systems that could provide some
moisture, but the signal is weak at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...12/0906Z.

At 09Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1500 ft deep. The top of the
inversion was at 4000 ft with a temperature of 24 Celsius.

High confidence in VFR conditions through at least Sunday at KPMD
and KWJF with seasonal winds.

Low clouds have already formed at KSBP KSMX KLGB KLAX. Chances
for IFR/LIFR conditions at KPRB (10%) and KSBA (20%). Chances for
MVFR/IFR conditions at KOXR (60%), KCMA (50%), KSMO (80%), KBUR
(30%), KVNY (30%). Moderate confidence on TAF timing (+/- 3
hours). For Sunday clouds may be less prevalent, with chances for
ceilings at KSBP (30%), KSMX (60%), KOXR (20%), KCMA (20%), KSMO
(40%), KLAX (60%), KLGB (60%), KBUR (20%).

KLAX...MVFR ceilings will clear by 16-18Z. There is a 20% chance
of brief MVFR ceilings 23-02Z). Ceilings likely later tonight into
Sunday, but likely forming later.

KBUR...20-30% chance of brief BKN005-008 forming 12-16Z each
morning through Sunday. High confidence in typical winds.

&&

.MARINE...12/750 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds today will increase to GALE force
this evening and continue at GALE levels through Sunday night. For
Monday and Tuesday, winds will back down to SCA levels with winds
dropping below SCA levels on Wednesday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast. Today through Monday, SCA level winds can be
expected in the afternoon and evening hours. For Tuesday and
Wednesday, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence
in current forecast. For a majority of the southern Inner Waters,
winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Wednesday. The
only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara
Channel where SCA level winds can be expected today through
Monday, mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours.

There is a low but present risk for dense fog over the Central
Coast waters today, with the risk decrease Sunday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM PDT
      Monday for zones 349-351-352. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon today to 9 PM PDT
      this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Sunday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM PDT
      Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewis/RK
AVIATION...RK
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox