188
FXUS66 KLOX 291046
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
346 AM PDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...29/334 AM.

Temperatures will trend upwards today and Saturday, then remain
well above normal through at least mid next week. Expect a very
warm Labor Day Weekend, with lots of sunshine and dry weather.
Monsoonal thunderstorms will be possible again across the
mountains and deserts stating Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...29/334 AM.

Monsoonal moisture from the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Juliette
has cleared out of the region, however the marine layer and
associated temperature inversion remains disturbed, making for
mostly clear skies this morning. Low pressure and unsettled
conditions brought by Juliette will transition today to a weak
ridging pattern. Today will be very sunny, especially across LA
and Ventura Counties, with a noticeable warming and drying trend.
500 mb heights are anticipated to trend upwards through early
next week, which will combine with a lack of strong onshore flow
to yield another long duration heat spell. Saturday and Sunday
will see further temperature increases, with highs reaching the
mid 80s to mid 90s across the beaches and coastal plains, and mid
90s to 105 for the valleys and deserts. Heat Advisories will be
possible for some areas (40 percent chance) starting as early as
Saturday.

Northerly wind gusts, up to 30-40 mph, may impact some wind prone
areas tonight and Saturday night, including the western Santa
Ynez Range and adjacent coasts, the Interstate 5 Corridor, and
interior mountain.

Thunderstorms are unlikely through the weekend, however elevated
CAPE today and lingering moisture may result in afternoon cumulus
build ups over the highest mountains of LA and Ventura Counties
this afternoon, with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...29/303 AM.

Weak ridging will persist into next week, maintaining well above
normal temperatures across the region. Heat is favored to peak on
Monday or Tuesday, and Heat Advisory products may either be issued
or continued through Wednesday. By Thursday cooling is expected
for the area, as 500 mb heights drop and onshore flow increases.

Monsoonal mositure may return to the region starting Tuesday with
PWATs favored to approach 200 percent of normal across eastern Los
Angeles County. At this time, there is a around a 10 to 20 percent
chance of showers and thunderstorms focused over the Eastern San
Gabriel Mountains the Antelope valley during the afternoons and
evenings, Tuesday through at least Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1046Z.

At 0826Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surface
based inversion with a top at 1100 ft and a temperature of 27 C

Low confidence in TAFs-> There is a 20% chance LIFR conds to
arrive at KSBP through 16Z Fri, and a 10% chance after 06Z Sat.
There is a 30% chance for LIFR/IFR conds to return at KSMX after
03Z Sat.

High confidence in remaining TAFs with VFR conditions expected
through forecast period.

KLAX...High confidence in 12Z TAF. Easterly wind component is
expected to remain under 6 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...29/207 AM.

[Moderate to High confidence]

For the Outer Waters, expect low-end Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
wind gusts across the northern portion (PZZ670) & particularly >20
miles from the shore, with a lull in winds likely during the
morning hours. Localized SCA wind gusts around Pt Conception are
possible each afternoon & evening through at least Monday. Seas
will peak 7 to 8 feet across western portions of PZZ670/673 on
Saturday & Sunday. There is a 60% chance of a SCA being issued
each day during the afternoon and evening timeframe through
Monday for PZZ670. Also, a 30% chance for PZZ673.

The nearshore waters north of Point Sal (PZZ645) will have a
30-40% chance of SCA gusts each afternoon and evening through Sunday.
Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels
through at least Monday.

[Low to Moderate confidence]

Thereafter, SCA wind gusts will likely be focused south of Point
Conception, with seas remaining well below advisory levels through
Thursday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Saturday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Schoenfeld
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...Schoenfeld

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox