396
FXUS66 KLOX 041643
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
943 AM PDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.SYNOPSIS...04/531 AM.

A major and long lasting heat wave is expected to persist
through all of next week with dangerously hot temperatures.
Clouds and dense fog are expected over portions of the coastal
waters this morning, most likely over the waters off the Central
Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...04/942 AM.

***UPDATE***

Day 3 of the heatwave is underway, and temperatures are already
off the races with highs in the 90s as of 930 AM for many areas
including Downtown Los Angeles and LAX Airport. Offshore winds
are light in speed, even so the LAX to DAG surface pressure
gradient was 4.2 mb offshore around 8 AM this morning, which is
moderate strength. A few calender day temperature records may be
broken today.

***From Previous Discussion***

Some low clouds with patchy dense fog has developed off the
Central Coast overnight into this morning, but mostly remains off
the coast. Overnight lows are struggling to fall, especially over
the coasts and valleys of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties and
the southern coast of Santa Barbara County where temperatures are
currently in the 70s and 80s. Offshore winds have kept the cooler
marine airmass off the coast for these regions, and winds limit
radiational cooling.

For today, the oppressive heat will continue, with more of the
same in store into early this coming week. Expecting fairly
widespread highs in the 90s to mid 100s for many valleys and
coasts, and temperatures will continue to be within a few degrees
of their daily records for a lot of the area. Highs are forecast
to be 15 to 27 degrees above normal for our valleys, coastal
mountains, and coastal areas, with the most unseasonably hot
conditions focused over the LA Basin, and the LA and Ventura
County coasts. Highs in the 90s for the interior fall closer to
normal (about 10-15 degrees above normal). Overnight lows will
remain on the warmer side through Tuesday night.

The forecast through the coming week has really not changed as
strong high pressure will maintain its grip over the region.
Adding to this is the fairly persistent 2-4 mb offshore gradient,
which supports heat all the way to the coast. Guidance is
beginning to show the offshore flow could finally weaken by
Tuesday evening, meaning we may start seeing some downward trends
in temperatures near the coasts Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...04/548 AM.

The hot weather will continue all of this coming week, but as
offshore gradients are forecast to weaken slowly through the
period. Although most days through Thursday should see offshore
winds in the morning hours, the sea breeze may return as soon as
Thursday. This translates to a very slow cooling trend, first most
evident at the coasts, with perhaps more notable cooling Friday.
There is a 20-30% chance that at least some heat advisories will
be needed on Friday. More significant and widespread cooling is
expected Saturday and continuing into early the next week. Recent
model trends are indicating at least a 20-30% chance of some
showers for the weekend based on the latest ensemble tracks of
Hurricane Rachel. Some increasing swells from Rachel are possible
as early as mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...04/1231Z.

At 0459Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surface
based inversion with a top at 1000 ft and a temp of 32 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for all sites through 06Z. There is a
10-20% chance of VLIFR/LIFR conds between 05/08Z-16Z. Moderate
confidence in strength and direction for KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, and
KLAX. Winds may be shifty at times.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. VFR conditions
expected, with lower confidence due to winds. East wind component peaking
04/14Z-18Z nearing 7-8kts, with gusts up to 15 kt possible.

KBUR...High confidence in the VFR 00Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...04/531 AM.

Generally quiet conditions expected across the coastal waters
through the forecast period. Localized Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
gusts may occur each afternoon and evening between Point
Conception and San Nicolas Island, off the coast of Point Dume,
and across the San Pedro Channel.

&&

.BEACHES...04/532 AM.

Quiet conditions are expected through the weekend, aside from the
heat. Meanwhile, another hurricane (Rachel) will likely bring a
larger- than- Polo southerly swell to southern California for
much of the coming work week. The window of most concern is
Tuesday through Friday. Elevated surf up to 5-6 ft is likely with
a lower chance of high surf 7 ft or higher across exposed south
facing beaches. High tides of 6.5-7.0 ft are expected. Unlike
previous events, morning and evening tides will be similar in
height. Initially, the swell will have a more SE direction
(150-160) targeting areas like Long Beach Tuesday and Wednesday.
As Rachel moves westward, the swell direction will become more
southerly (170-190) Thursday and Friday targeting areas like Zuma.
There is a high risk for Beach Hazard Statements and a moderate
risk for Coastal Flood Advisories and High Surf Advisories along
the LA/VTA coastline. Stay tuned for future updates.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Thursday for
      zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>375-548-550. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Wednesday for zones
      341>345-347-348. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Phillips/Schoenfeld
AVIATION...Phillips
MARINE...Black/Ciliberti
BEACHES...Black/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...Phillips/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox