752
FXUS66 KLOX 171729
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1029 AM PDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Updated Aviation Section

.SYNOPSIS...16/113 PM.

High pressure over the region will maintain very warm temperatures
through much of the coming week, especially away from the coast
and across the interior portions of the area. Gusty northerly
winds will develop once again tonight across southern Santa
Barbara County and through the Interstate 5 Corridor. A gradual
cooling trend will develop late in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...17/311 AM.

Another warm and sunny day on tap. Weakening onshore flow to the
east and actual offshore flow from the north have limited marine
layer stratus to southern LA county and western SBA county. Weak
ridging will bring 590 dam hgts to the area and this along with
the weaker/offshore sfc gradients will bring another day of well
above normal temps. Most temps will rise 1 to 2 degrees. Most max
temps away from the cst will end up about 12 degrees over normal.
This warming will bring temps up to just under advisory levels.
People working or playing outdoors away from the coasts should
still take precautions for the heat. Look for triple digit heat in
the western San Fernando Vly, the Santa Clarita Vly and the
Antelope Vly with 90s very common in other vly locations.

An eddy is still slated to arrive tonight and this will bring some
more low clouds to the area esp southern LA county. The eddy will
bring some cooler sea air to LA VTA csts and vlys and max temps
there will fall by 2 to 4 degrees. The SBA south coast will cool 5
to 10 degrees as the northerly flow cuts off.

A trof will move into the area on Thursday and hgts will lower to
about 588 dam. More importantly there will be onshore flow both
the east and north. 4 to 8 degrees of cooling will ensue most max
temps will be near normal xcp the Central Coast (3 to 6 degrees
blo normal) and the Antelope Vly (6 to 8 degrees over normal)

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...17/321 AM.

Cyclonic flow will cover the west coast for the duration of the
xtnd period. The onshore push to the east will increase to 7 or 8
mb on Friday and Saturday afternoons. Look for a return of June
Gloom with low clouds covering the csts and most of the vlys.
Clearing will be slower than normal and more than a few beaches
will likely remain cloudy all day. Max temps will fall 2 to 4
degrees (3 to 6 Antelope Vly and far interior vlys) on Friday and
then another 2 to 4 degrees (4 to 8 Antelope Vly and far interior
vlys) on Saturday. Max temps Saturday will end up 3 to 6 locally 8
degrees blo normal.

Offshore trends will reduce the amount and duration of the low
clouds on Sunday and max temp will bump up 2 to 4 degrees across
the board.

Onshore flow rebounds on Monday with a corresponding increase in
low clouds and decrease in afternoon temps.

&&

.AVIATION...17/1728Z.

At 1602Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was around 3800 feet with a temperature of 24 C.

Low confidence in TAFs for KSMX, KSBP, KLGB. For KSMX, there is a
40% chance for VFR conds to prevail through the period. For KSBP
(30%) and KLGB (40%), there is a chance for LIFR and IFR/MVFR
conds respectively.

Moderate confidence in TAF for KSBA and KLAX. There is a 30%
chance north sundowner wind do not surface at KSBA. There is a 20%
chance for IFR to MVFR conds at KLAX from 10Z to 18Z.

High confidence in remaining TAFs.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF through 06Z, then moderate
confidence in TAF thereafter. There is a 20% chance for cigs
005-012 and/or vsbys 3SM to 5SM between 10Z and 18Z. Any east
wind component is likely to be less than 6 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...17/847 AM.

High confidence in gusty Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level
northwest winds across the Outer Waters and Inner Waters along the
Central coast through the weekend. A Gale Warning is in effect
for the Outer Waters through late tonight, and for the Inner
Waters along the Central Coast from this afternoon through
evening. Seas will hover around 10 feet for the outers waters,
increasing to up to 14 feet late this week. Moderate to high
confidence in a return of Gale force winds across the waters later
this week through the weekend, as early as Wednesday night for
the northern waters.

Across the Santa Barbara Channel this afternoon through evening,
widespread Small Craft conditions are expected, with local Gale
force winds possible across the western portions of the zone (away
from Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Channel Islands Harbors). After a
lull Wednesday, a return of SCA level winds is likely Thursday
through the weekend, potentially impacting immediate coastlines
this weekend. Gale force gusts are possible in the western portion
of the zone Friday and Saturday.

High confidence in conditions remaining below advisory levels in
the Inner Waters off the Los Angeles and Orange County coasts
through Wednesday, with localized W to NW SCA level wind gusts
possible in the afternoon and evening hours near Malibu and
through portions of the San Pedro Channel through Tuesday. Then,
low confidence in forecast for Thursday into the weekend as winds
could increase to SCA levels but may be confined to the western
portion of the zone away from the immediate coasts.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT
      this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox