248
FXUS66 KLOX 040835
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
135 AM PDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.SYNOPSIS...03/846 PM.

Below normal temperatures, patchy marine layer clouds, and breezy
onshore winds will continue through Friday. Tropical Cyclone
Marie, which will remain well offshore of SoCal, will bring
impacts to the region over the weekend into early next week.
Light rain is favored for Sunday focused over Los Angeles County.
Increasing southerly swell will create hazardous surf conditions
at the coasts.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...03/911 PM.

***UPDATE***

Once again another sunny day for SoCal. High temperatures were in
the 70s and mid-80s. Away from the coast, these temperatures
were 5 to 12 degrees below normal for this time of a year (a big
change from all our heatwaves this summer). Gusty, sub-advisory
level, afternoon winds were common across the region, with the
strongest winds along the Antelope Valley Foothills/I-14 corridor.
As for the Santa Barbara Southwestern Coast, yet another round of
Advisory level N-NW Sundowner winds are occuring, and a Wind
Advisory is in effect through 6am Friday. Patchy marine layer
clouds are on tap once again, with a few hours of formation
possible for LA County Coastal locations late night into morning.
The highest chances for marine layer clouds to form will once
again be the Central Coast. Additionally, there is a small chance
of light rain across the Central Coast tonight and tomorrow
morning as a broad trough digs into Oregon and northern
California.

Similar conditions are expected across Southwest California
tomorrow. However, sundowner winds are expected to be a touch
weaker, and a wind advisory will likely not be needed Friday
evening/overnight.

No major updates were needed to the forecast for the evening
update.

***From Previous Discussion***

Marine layer clouds are expected each night into morning, but
coverage will be patchy.

Hurricane Marie is likely to follow a west-northwest trajectory,
keeping the storm well south of the California Coast. Impacts
will be possible for the region over land starting Saturday, when
a small increase in temperatures and humidity is expected.
Temperatures will still be near normal, but the humidity may
contribute to some additional heat discomfort. By Saturday night,
there will be a slight chance of showers focused over Los Angeles
County. PWATs will shoot up on Sunday as Marie gets close enough
for moisture to stream in to the region from the southwest along
the bottom edge of the trough. The greatest chance for any rain
will be on Sunday. Chances for rain for each county will be as
follows: Los Angeles County (40-50% chance), Ventura County
(25-50% chance), Santa Barbara County (10-30% chance) and San Luis
Obispo County (10-20% chance). There will also be a 5-15 percent
chance of thunderstorms focused over Los Angeles County Sunday
afternoon. Rain totals are expected to be light, generally between
a trace to around 0.25 inches. Local areas up to 0.5 inches will
be possible, but not common. The greatest impacts from Marie will
be at the coasts, see the Beaches Discussion below for surf, rip
current, and coastal flooding details.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...03/232 PM.

Marie is favored to linger well off the coast to the southwest of
the region into mid next week. Thus Monday through Thursday,
moisture may be transported into region as Marie breaks down.
Sporadic slight chances of showers will continue each day, and
humidity is likely to remain elevated. However it should be noted
that Tuesday onward, there is a lot of uncertainty in the upper
level pattern. The GFS and EC break from each other significantly.
The GFS favors a trough dipping down in Central California, which
would bring cooler temperatures and likely some fairly breezy
southwest onshore flow. The EC shows the 4-Corners high pressure
extending out to include SoCal, which would bring warmer
temperatures and even the chance for monsoonal mositure out of the
southeast.

&&

.AVIATION...04/0834Z.

At 08Z at KLAX, a moist layer was around 2500 ft with no
inversion.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).

Expecting another night through morning period of patchy marine
layer clouds. Moderate confidence KSMX and north and low
confidence for other coastal and coastal valley TAFs with a 30-50
percent chance that VFR conds prevail. MVFR cigs/vsbys will be
most common, although brief IFR conds are possible, especially
KBUR/KVNY.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF with a 30 percent chance that VFR
conds prevail. Good confidence that any east wind component will
remain below 6 kt.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF with a 40-50 percent chance that VFR
conds prevail.

&&

.MARINE...04/134 AM.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds will be common each afternoon
and night for the offshore waters off the Central Coast for the
foreseeable future. All of other waters should stay below SCA.

Tropical moisture will approach the area Sunday through at least
Tuesday. While unlikely at this point, there is a 5 to 10 percent
chance of a thunderstorm over the coastal waters, highest south of
Point Conception. A large south swell will also impact the area,
causing increased currents and surges in the vulnerable harbors.

&&

.BEACHES...03/246 PM.

The range of swell and surf outcomes have tightened, with peak
south swell associated with Hurricane Marie likely in that 5 to 8
foot range. With moderate periods of 12 to 14 seconds, surf
heights on exposed south-facing shores should be of similar
height (5-8 feet). Some spots might see larger waves (like
Malibu). The Santa Barbara South Coast will be largely protected
from this swell, but there are some small windows of southeastly
and southwesterly energy that could cause boosts in the waves.
High Surf Advisories are now in place for Los Angeles and Ventura
Counties, with Beach Hazards statements (a step below high surf
advisories) in effect for Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo
Counties. With huge crowds expected at the beaches for the Labor
Day holiday, the emphasis for these statements is to alert the
public to be extra careful in and near the ocean.

High tides will also be increasing through early next week. Due to
a variey of reasons, the actual observed tides have been running
6 inches above predictions for sometime now. The south swell will
likely enhance that enhancement. As a result, high tides should
exceed 7 feet by Monday. Adding large tides like that with the
south swell will result in a moderate risk for coastal flooding
over the vulnerable south-facing shores. Areas of most concern
include Avalon, Long Beach (Alamitos Peninsula), Malibu, and
Point Mugu. Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued as well for
Los Angeles and Ventura Counties where the best combination of
tides and waves will occur, but Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo
Counties could also see some isolated issues.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 6 AM Saturday to 11 PM
      PDT Tuesday for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 6 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT
      Tuesday for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect from Saturday morning
      through Tuesday evening for zones 340-346-349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT early this morning for
      zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT early this
      morning for zones 650-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT early this
      morning for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Schoenfeld/KL
AVIATION...Munroe
MARINE...RK/DB
BEACHES...RK
SYNOPSIS...Lewis/RS

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox