565
FXUS66 KLOX 301134
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
434 AM PDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...30/248 AM.

Very warm conditions will continue through most of next week,
generally peaking Sunday through Tuesday including Labor Day. The
is a high risk for heat illness to sensitive populations.
Monsoonal moisture will arrive once again on Tuesday and keep a
low but present risk of showers and thunderstorms through the
rest of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...30/246 AM.

The marine layer low clouds and fog remains off the coast this
morning, with only some radiation dense fog forming in cold
pockets of the Central Coast. This more than likely will be the
case through at least the weekend if not beyond. Coastal areas
near Los Angeles might see some smatterings of low clouds at times
through Tuesday as a weak eddy will spin up each morning.

Northeast winds gusting between 20 and 30 mph are forming over
the wind prone hills and canyons of San Luis Obispo and Santa
Barbara Counties thanks to a more than 2 millibar offshore trend
in the pressure gradients. Several projections show even stronger
northeast winds on Sunday. This adds even more reason to believe
that low clouds and fog will be minimal through the weekend, and
that the Central Coast will be very warm (10-15 degrees above
normal). As such, added them to the Heat Advisory party for
Sunday. A large ridge of high pressure blanketing the western
states, will expand and strengthen over the next 12 to 24 hours
and change very little through at least Monday. As a result, the
rest of the region is also on track for very warm conditions that
will last for several days, with Monday through Tuesday or
Wednesday the hottest outside of the Central Coast. Made a few
more adjustments to the Heat Advisories to make the areas a little
more coherent and organized. Calendar day records are really high
for this coming week, so not anticipating any records. While
temperatures will only be around 10 degrees above normal, that is
very warm considering this is climatologically our hottest time
of the year, and considering the plethora of outdoor activities
associated with the Labor Day holiday, the risk for heat illness
is abnormally high - especially for those that are most
susceptible (like the old, young, hikers, and those without air
conditioning).

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...29/748 PM.

Weak ridging will persist into next week, maintaining well above
normal temperatures across the region. Heat is favored to peak on
Tuesday with downtown LA in the low-to-mid 90s, but the advisory
products may be continued through Wednesday. By Thursday, some
cooling is expected, as heights drop and onshore flow increases.

Monsoonal moisture will likely return to the region starting
Tuesday with about an 80 percent chance of PWATs above one inch
across eastern Los Angeles County. At this time, there is a around
a 10 to 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms focused
over the Ventura and Los Angeles County Mountains and the Antelope
Valley during the afternoons and evenings of Tuesday through at
least Thursday. The most likely area for showers would be in the
eastern portion of the San Gabriel Mountains and Antelope Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1133Z.

At 0932Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 500 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 1600 ft with a temperature of 26 C.

Low to Moderate confidence in TAFs. There is a 20% chance of
at least brief LIFR to IFR CIGs through 15Z Sat at KSBP. There is
a 15% chance LIFR to IFR CIGs return at KSMX after 06Z Sun.

Good confidence in remaining TAFs. 25% chance for at least brief
LIFR to IFR conds at KOXR & KCMA through 16Z Sat. Similar chances
again after 06Z Sun through end of fcst pd. 20% chc for LIFR to
IFR conds at KSMO after 06Z Sun.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 12Z TAF. <10% chance of brief
low cigs 003-007 through 16Z Sat. Higher chances (30%) after 06Z
Sun through 16Z Sun. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in the 12Z TAF with VFR conds through the
fcst period.

&&

.MARINE...29/1124 PM.

Stronger winds are expected Saturday afternoon into the late night
hours focused across the northern outer waters (PZZ670). High
confidence in NW winds 20-30 kts, with local gusts up to 35 kts.
There is a 25% chance that GALE force wind gusts will become
widespread enough to warranted a Gale Warning. Will let the day
shift decide. Gusty Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds will
continue especially across northern portions through at least
Sunday, before the focus moves across the waters south of Point
Conception next week through possibly mid-week. A relative lull in
winds can generally be expected each morning.

For the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, SCA wind gusts
are possible each afternoon & evening through Labor Day. Best
chances will be across the NW portion & south of Port San Luis on
Saturday, with diminishing chances each passing day.

Aside from fairly seasonal afternoon and evening localized NW
wind gusts 20-25 kts in the far Western Portion of the Santa
Barbara Channel and 15-20 kts in the San Pedro Channel, light
winds and small seas will be common for the nearshore waters south
of Point Conception through Labor Day. Better chances for more
widespread SCA winds across the SBA channel on Tuesday & Wednesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Sunday to 6 PM PDT Tuesday
      for zones 38-344-345-353. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory remains in effect from 10 AM Monday to 6 PM PDT
      Tuesday for zones 88-356>358-368>376-378-379-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Monday evening for
      zones 340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM to 6 PM PDT Sunday for
      zones 341>343-347>349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zone
      670. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Kittell/Schoenfeld/jld
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox