054
FXUS66 KLOX 011221
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
421 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...01/156 AM.

Warmer temperatures are expected today as offshore flow returns
with areas of gusty Santa Ana winds. A cooling trend will develop
Tuesday and Wednesday before Santa Ana winds return Thursday with
warmer temperatures into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...01/227 AM.

Santa Ana winds will be returning to portions of the area today as
the jet stream continues to push storms well north of southern
California, then down into the Great Basin. This is a common La
Nina set up and it looks like it will remain this way at least
through the first half of December. Today`s Santa Ana won`t be a
strong one but enough for easterly gusts into the 40s in the
mountains and 30s at lower elevations, mainly across Ventura
County and the northwestern portion of LA County. This is a much
cooler event than the Santa Ana last week and temps across coast
and valleys should top out in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Winds will
diminish in the late afternoon but with some offshore breezes
through the canyons into Tuesday morning. Outside of the areas
impacted by the Santa Anas it will be a very quiet weather day
aside from some areas of dense fog along the Central Coast and
chilly morning lows in wind protected areas and especially the
interior.

Offshore flow will weaken and turn onshore Tuesday and Wednesday
as the next inside slider moves up and over California and into
the Great Basin. Temperatures will cool down near the coast but
little change across the valleys. Rain chances that had been in
the forecast for Wed/Thu have evaporated as the system is staying
too far east. However, it will generate another weak to moderate
Santa Ana wind event Thursday in the same areas as Monday. There
is again some decent cold advection with this Santa Ana so even
with the benefit of downslope and compressional warming,
temperatures should stay in the 60s in most coast/valleys while
the interior areas are no warmer than the 50s.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...01/250 AM.

Temperatures will be on the upswing Friday and through next
weekend as a 590dam high noses into the eastern Pacific. The high
will expand into California early next week and steer storms well
east of the western US. This will break the cycle cold storms
dropping into the Great Basin and instead push temperatures to at
least 3-6 degrees above normal. Looking a little farther ahead
into the following week (Dec 7-13) most of the models maintain the
ridge over the eastern Pacific with a likely continuation of the same
warm/dry pattern through the first half of the month.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1214Z.

Around 12Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 1300 ft deep. The
top of the inversion was near 3600 ft with a temperature of 14 C.

High confidence in TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).

Low to moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY
restrictions may be off by +/- 3 hrs. Low clouds are patchy and
will continue to scatter and reform frequently, as well as
bounce visibilities at the remaining sites through 16Z. Low
confidence in return of cigs tonight as offshore flow will
continue through the night.

LLWS and turbulence is possible over and near mountainous terrain
across Ventura and LA Counties through the period.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. Low clouds will continue
to scatter/reform and bounce vis through 16Z. Low confidence in
return of cigs tonight, with a 40% chance of remaining VFR after
cigs burn off this morning. No significant east wind component
expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF through 16Z, then high
confidence. Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 3
hours. A return of 5SM BR is possible after 06Z Tue.

&&

.MARINE...01/216 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. This afternoon through Tuesday afternoon, high
confidence in winds and seas below SCA levels. For Wednesday,
there is a 30% chance of SCA conditions beyond 30 NM from shore.
Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels Friday and Saturday
with a chance of SCA conds on Sunday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast. Conditions are expected to remain below SCA
levels through Friday. However, nearshore from Cayucos to Morro
bay offshore wind gusts could approach SCA levels at times.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For the nearshore waters from
Ventura to west of Santa Monica and potentially out past Anacapa
Island, SCA level offshore winds are expected this morning into
Tuesday morning. However, there will likely be a brief lull in
winds for a few hours late this afternoon. There is a 30% chance
of another round of offshore winds for this same area Wednesday
night through Thursday morning. Otherwise, winds and seas are
expected to generally remain below SCA levels through Friday.

&&

.BEACHES...01/230 AM.

A long period west-northwest swell will bring elevated surf
conditions to Southwest California Tuesday through Thursday
morning. High Surf Advisories have been issued across the
Central Coast with peak surf heights of 10 feet. Very High
Tides of 7 to 7.7 (MLLW) are expected across all beaches.

The combination of the long period swell and high tides could
result in beach erosion with isolated minor coastal flooding,
especially for west- northwest facing beaches from 4 AM to 11 AM
each day.

Beach hazard statements are expected to be issued for all beaches
south of Point Conception with future updates, with a 40% chance
that a High Surf Advisory will be needed for the Ventura coast. In
addition, coastal flooding potential is expected to peak on
Wednesday (due to the surf peaking) giving the highest risk of
coastal flooding along the Ventura coastline (30% chance).

Tides will be highest Thursday and Friday. With the large tides
and another round of swell, beach hazard statements could be
extended into the weekend. Please stay tuned to the National
Weather Service for future updates as we continue to monitor the
situation.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon
      for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369-371-372-374-375-379. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PST
      Thursday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Freeze Watch remains in effect from late tonight through
      Tuesday morning for zone 383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Tuesday for
      zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Lund
MARINE...Black/Lund
BEACHES...Black/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox